Peter Zimmerman

Peter Zimmerman
Contributor since: 2012
Very good article. Expecting this management team to perform well is the problem. To those that love the product, and those that are going to "double my position" because the valuation is wrong, think about that. To those that tell me they have enough money to last 5 years, think about what a poor management team will do with that money. No, this article is spot on, but I firmly believe the blame falls on a tone deaf and slow management team. Have a great evening.
Agreed, well stated reply. I am short TSLA and waiting very patiently.
I sold those options long ago, I don't even remember the strikes - sorry. My current currency short is the Japanese Yen via $YCS, doing very well...
The article was written in January of 2012, so the chart shows 2011 action. Huge money make through mid-2012!
Like sticking your money under a mattress.
This was not a bearish triangle. Whether symmetrical or ascending, this was bullish all along.
If you can't understand the business difference on the bottom line between charging/collecting sales tax and the business you would do if you don't charge it, there is nothing I can say to fix that.
Ebay's business also includes this thing called Paypal which is probably the biggest online payment system in the world, a space I do not believe Amazon competes in. Groupon is an overvalued piece of crap as well, just look at the share price trend.
There is a significant difference. Amazon is PRIMARILY an online retailer. So collecting sales tax ON TOP of shipping charges will make a difference when compared to the big box retailer down the street.
As mentioned above, don't forget these additional warehouses add an additional burden to collect state income taxes and actually help local competition.
You are making our argument for us. It is exactly these types of unanticipated headwinds that are not included in your original argument to buy the stock. In a perfect world, Mr. Bezos plan will work perfectly, not to mention additional competition, and certainly one word has not yet been spoken of the enormous impact that collecting state taxes will have on the business model. Once imposed, the box stores will again be on a near equal footing with Amazon, and all of these previous plans don't mean anything, because now earnings AND revenue begin to decline. There is simply not a sound argument for owning this stock, other than for a day trade or short term swing trade.
I would argue that revenue that cannot be converted to earnings is the relevant point. It seems you are focusing on the Utopia that Bezos promises rather than the reality he has delivered. I concur with Paulo when he said "And at WHAT level isn't a long position recommendable? At what level of valuation, or at what level of earnings?" That question needs to be answered. Investors can throw money at Amazon all day long, one day they with have tears in their eyes when this stock tanks to the level it should be.
Excellent article, the market loves to take the money of the Cramer fans who are taught to put money into a market in correction, instead of correctly identifying uptrends. One only needs to look at last summer and fall charts for a likely prediction of what will happen next. Even if it doesn't, cash is king in this market.
Yeah, but you can't have oversight without regulations, unless you want congress running the banks - god forbid. I understand your cynicism but even what you call "abuse of funds" has to be defined and not arbitrary, that would be worse. Think about it.
I agree that the hearing was a JOKE. $JPM, because it bought and paid for most members of that committee had no worries from the opening gavel. Give me a break.
There does need to be some kind of separation between deposit money and the money traders trade with however. To say no new regulations good misses that point. Like Jamie Dimon said, he is not against regulation as long as it is good regulation - and not crap like Dodd Frank (my words).
Uncertainty is death for a stock. The $2 billion in losses is only an estimate and yet everyone uses this as a data point. That $2 billion could very easily become $4B, $5B or more as Europe implodes. In addition, EPS for Q1 of next year is projected to be 3 cents less per share than this year. Not to mention the lawsuits, etc. it would be better to put your money under a mattress.
Good points. Thanks.
Nasdaq short working well today as more negative news is reported in the Wall Street Journal this morning. Nasdaq CEO Lost Touch Amid Facebook Chaos $NDAQ http://on.wsj.com/KnsLlN
That's your opinion Barry, and to say the use of lagging P/E's is wrong is just plain arrogant. I am judging these companies based on what they have done, not what they, or some analyst say they are going to do in the future. Besides, in the very next paragraph I present forward earnings per share, so all information is covered.
Also, this is an interesting comment from a guy who wrote: "We believe that LinkedIn's stock valuation is too high and does not reflect the fast-growing competitive threat posed by Facebook and private companies using Facebook's platform to offer services that compete with LinkedIn;" I guess you can change your mind too. Respectfully.
It's a difficult thing to pick the point where the market trend turns around. What I am hearing you say is that things are so bad, they are unlikely to get worse this week? Seems like a crap shoot to me. I think QE3 is a possibility, I don't think there is a chance in hell a Republican House would approve another Obama-like stimulus however.
Agreed. Just because a stock is below, say $100, does not make it a "cheap stock." This is a classic mistake some investors make when deciding what stocks to purchase. I heard valuations in the range of $9 - $13 this week from well respected analysts. If anything, I will short this stock.
And your statement makes no sense without some logical argument to back it up. If you are going yo use a one-liner it would be advisable to make your point. If you are gloating over a 2 day run up in gold, I would only reiterate that I treat gold as a swing trade, nothing more, nothing less, and I am certainly not betting on it for my retirement fund.
Waiting to see if GLD can hold 148 support, if not I will come in on the short side... it's just a trade like any other.
Thanks, I would not disagree with your statements or your conclusion. The thrust of my article was for readers to understand that gold, at these prices, is a risky investment. Agree or disagree, I have read a lot of great comments on the article and I appreciate most of them. All and all, this was a fun topic for me. Regards.
If by propaganda you mean I posted this article because I have some kind of agenda, I would respectfully disagree, I have no dog in this fight. I am neither long or short gold. I summarized my concern in the last paragraph. Gold is a risky investment just like many other investments. If you are buying gold because you believe the world is going to end, then fine, but just be aware that the circumstances I outlined, that would cause gold prices to go down, are very real possibilities as well. I think that is the attitude any reasonable investor should take.
"investors would be wise to consider all of the possibilities and circumstances before jumping into a long-term investment in gold." Propaganda?
I don't recall saying that gold has NO value.
Just for the record, I wrote a similar article a little over 2 years ago entitled "Betting Against Gold." It was published twice, once again this year.
GLD is backed by a warehouse of physical gold. As I stated, the production of gold is not constant, but we have a heck of a lot more of it today than we did 37 years ago. In the last 5 years over 3,800 tons of gold have been mined. Where will this gold go when investors dump it, which they will? Answer, to other investors at a cheaper price. I didn't say things were getting better, please re-read that part. Future tense on one statement and I also said they WILL get better.
I didn't say they were getting better, I said they WILL get better. The statement before that was future tense.
Interesting article. Well constructed and presented. I think what lacks is a realization of what is happening in the real world in the midst of this sell off. Particularly the global economic conditions are giving some holders of gold a reason to stick with it until the dust clears from the situation in Europe, problems with debt, etc., thus avoiding a sharp downturn.
Charts are fine, which by the way clearly show gold has broken trend support here, but they must be balanced against global economic indicators as well, which was one of the major points to my article. Folks are not going to sit on over 171k tons of gold after the 2008 financial economic disaster passes. Thanks.
Glad I sold my calls prior to earnings. Guess the fools win this one...
Not sure what you mean about "going directly to the source" I guess you want to own the stock. MarketWatch also has Monday as the earnings release. Could Etrade and MarketWatch both be wrong?