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Phasmida Capital

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  • Earn A 3.7% Investment Grade Yield Over 14 Months With Prospect Capital Bonds [View article]
    "Phasmida - It is hard to say that rates will be "far higher" 14 months from now". - I didnt' say "from now", I said far higher than in 2012 May. They are already much higher. With all this said, I wouldn't say that investing in PRY is a bad idea, but it would be a bad idea to count on it being called in 2015.
    Mar 11 10:18 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Earn A 3.7% Investment Grade Yield Over 14 Months With Prospect Capital Bonds [View article]
    14 months from now bond yields in general will be far higher than in May 2012. It is far from certain that Prospect Capital would call them on May 15, 2015, even if they were considered more creditworthy than on May 2012.
    Mar 10 10:40 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Total Return BDCs For 2014: Part 7 [View article]
    Nice article. For me the problem with names like MAIN and HTGC is that they are trading at far above book value. (P/BV of 1.7 and such).

    Thus growth is already factored in and thus if their net asset value increases by the projected amounts, the price of the stock is unlikely to move up by the same amount.

    My projection of their total return (stock price movement + dividends) is lower and because they are trading near all-time highs their stock price risk is higher than their portfolio risk.

    I'd consider GLAD but like you said it's risky plus their investment income seems to be declining rather than increasing. So I'll stick to PSEC.
    Feb 17 09:03 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Prospect Capital Declares Its 72nd, 73rd, and 74th Consecutive Cash Distributions to Shareholders, Exceeding $1.2 Billion in Cumulative Distributions to Shareholders Since 2004 [View article]
    So based on this news release, their 2013 4th quarter net investment income will be ~$0.31 per share.
    Feb 3 11:32 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Noble Corporation declares $0.375 dividend [View news story]
    The dividend was increased by 50%. NOT in-line with previous.
    Jan 30 09:51 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • UCP Inc: Hybrid Real Estate Play Offers The Most Short-Term Upside In Real Estate [View article]
    I wouldn't call 20 - 30% low if the lots they sold had been bought very recently. I simply think that their book value is in fact not too far from the fair market value based on that margin. After all shouldn't you get a decent gross profit just from the work of land development and house building? There doesn't seem to be a lot of lot price appreciation in that margin.

    But the general and administrative costs for 2012 quarters were similar to that 2013 first quarter's cost. It just seems like very high quarterly expenses compared to revenue and potential profits.
    Jul 29 09:37 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • UCP Inc: Hybrid Real Estate Play Offers The Most Short-Term Upside In Real Estate [View article]
    General and administrative costs: $4.5 million on the first quarter of 2013.
    Loss: $1.8 million.

    Their gross margins for the first quarter of 2013 were pretty low.. around 20 - 30%. Net margins were negative. This to me implies that in fact their lots have not appreciated in value as much as you say.. either that or the book value that they mention is quite up to date.

    If that implication is correct, then I think the only guys profiting from this are the managers etc. of the company with a fixed salary.. to me it seems they are going to eat any income as well as slowly eat the asset base of the company.. as evidenced by the fact they have no plan for a future dividend. Also why indeed would PICO sell their shares if they thought they were undervalued at $15.
    Jul 29 05:33 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Shares of RadioShack (RSH -17.5%) fall further into the abyss with reports out that the company is looking to hire bankers to help find a way to shore up its balance sheet. More than a few retail watchers think the bankers are going to come back to the boardroom with a bankruptcy plan wrapped up with a bow. [View news story]
    Sold my gamble RSH bonds based on this.. I felt that the price of the bonds didn't fall enough considering the severity of what was reported by Debtwire. More about the topic at:
    Jul 11 03:24 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Another beaten-up income favorite puts the sellers on notice (CYS on Monday) with Prospect Capital (PSEC) guiding Q2 estimated NII to $0.35/share from $0.31 previously. The company also announces a new $112M senior loan to a leading 3rd party logistics company servicing shippers globally. With no borrowing under its credit line, Prospect has $800M in new investment capacity. Shares +2% premarket. (PR[View news story]
    Yep.. now my only remaining question mark is how much of a book value loss will we see for this quarter considering that bonds have lost value. It would be much easier to estimate that if I knew the average duration of the debt investments in PSEC's portfolio.
    Jun 12 09:59 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Billed as a private equity ETF, the newly listed PEX owns no Blackstone, KKR, or Fortress. The top U.S. holdings - ARCC, ACAS, PSEC, AINV, FSC - will be well-known to fans of BDCs though. [View news story]
    lol what a ripoff ETF.
    May 7 05:46 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is It The Perfect Time To Buy Intel? [View article]
    I for one want an ultrabook.. But I'm waiting for haswell before buying one. I need the reliability and speed of an SSD harddrive (currently found only in ultrabooks and macbooks I think, as far as laptops go), combined with the fact I can plug in the ultrabook to any monitor and keyboard and mouse at home and use it like a powerful desktop PC. Then when I want to go to a coffee shop or on a vacation, I just unplug all that and take just the ultrabook with me.
    I don't necessarily need the tablet mode however, but it's cool in case I want to take it to my bed and read an ebook or watch a video.
    Apr 16 06:42 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • ARM Proven Wrong, Intel Vindicated [View article]
    As far as ARM being DOA for server space.. Yes it will have tough competition but you can in fact put a lot of ARM cores on a web server and the web server software would be able to use all those cores if the web server is busy enough (and if it's not it doesn't need a high performance CPU in general). This is why Intel will have to supply similar, cheap low power server chips to be more certain to keep their market share.
    Disclosure: I am long INTC. Short ARMH. I am a programmer and a linux server admin.
    Mar 5 12:20 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • FriendFinder Networks, Undervalued And A Private Equity Dream With $90 Million Of Adjusted EBITDA [View article]
    By restructured I meant it would go bankrupt and all equity would be wiped out. AFAIK about bankruptcy and restructuring, normally why would bondholders agree to restructuring without letting the equity go to 0 first? In this case the majority equity holders and the debt holders are the same people however so I'm not sure how this will play out at all.

    Yes, why wouldn't manwin wait until the enterprise value is lower? But in order for it to go significantly lower the company needs to go bankrupt first probably. So there goes your equity as well. Also, if you wait too long the website traffic would probably deteriorate too unless the management can pull off a comeback.

    Just the fact that the company is like a private one where the few people in control don't have to care about the returns of the others and can use some accounting tricks makes me a little weary about investing in it. This is just my personal fear. Not saying they are doing any accounting tricks.
    Feb 19 11:50 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • ARM (ARMH -2.2%) slips after receiving yet another downgrade: Benchmark has slashed its rating to Hold from Buy, citing overly optimistic expectations. Morgan Stanley, Piper, and UBS all downgraded ARM last week, largely on valuation grounds - shares of the world's dominant CPU core licensing firm currently trade at 46x 2013E EPS. Q4 results arrive on Feb. 5. [View news story]
    Funny after every downgrade sell-off the stock goes right back up to where it was before the downgrade..
    Jan 22 11:01 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • There Is More Risk Ahead For Nvidia - Should You Buy Now Or Wait? [View article]
    Great article, thanks. I'm also watching NVDA on the sidelines but long INTC.
    Jan 14 10:13 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment