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Phil Scanlan

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  • Chinese Filings Show That China Medical Technologies Acquired A Business From Parties Secretly Related To Chairman [View article]
    I am long CMED (there always has to be one sucker) so these allegations are very concerning.

    Shindoesca says it happened 4 years ago so it is old news and you should look at recent financial performance. I purchased the shares based on their recent performance.

    Nevertheless even if this happened 4 years ago - if these allegations are true - it casts the ethics of management of the company in a poor light - and we have to trust them to run the company every day.

    But I do have some questions:

    1. Did you present this evidence to the company and if so, what was the company's response?

    2. Did you present this evidence to the company auditors and if so, what was the auditor's response?

    3. Did you put these allegations to the Chairman and if so, what was his response?
    Dec 6 11:00 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Shipping Value Play In The Baltic Dry Index Disconnect [View article]
    What was mid day spike in GNK about yesterday? Anyone know?
    Sep 14 02:58 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Diana Shipping Shines Despite Shipping's Foggy Future [View article]
    Shame about the floods in Australia wiping out the wheat crop this year. See news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20...

    "Possibly as much as half the Australian wheat crop or about 10 million tons has been downgraded to less than milling quality because of rain damage, tightening global supplies and helping send prices for the grain up about 45 percent this year, the biggest surge since 2007."

    The floods now cover an area bigger than Texas.
    Jan 3 01:35 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why TravelCenters Will Keep on Truckin' [View article]
    " Management is interested in what benefits HPT and even more so RMR."

    This is why the related party stuff is such an issue. We cannot examine every decision they make and it places doubts in investors minds as to who they are acting for. Especially when you look at the provision in the LLC agreement referenced in the Delaware court case (see posting by Nell above) where I think they basically say they are allowed to put their interests ahead of TA.

    Good find Nell
    Feb 11 01:25 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why TravelCenters Will Keep on Truckin' [View article]
    "They may want to provide CNG for truckers and other vehicles in the future. That would be a medium to long term option but one with a lot of possible growth potential.......... "

    I thought about the effect of alternate energies on this company in the long term and in the end decided that no matter what the fuel is, the trucks are going to have to stop and refuel with something. Indeed they may have to more often and there might be less competition (more margin) in the provision of those alternate fuels. Regardless this is a long way down the track.

    With respect to Rail - I am not convinced of the threat. There are inherent limitations to Rail which means trucks will always be necessary. Plus other countries have shown that railways "can" become very inefficient. What would the effect be on the Rail industry if certain pro-union laws were introduced and enforced? The mix between Rail and Truck will depend of efficiencies and fuel prices and I cannot predict either.
    Feb 10 02:28 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why TravelCenters Will Keep on Truckin' [View article]
    The comment in the 10-k that I believe Pj568 is referring to is:

    "THE STATEMENT IN THIS QUARTERLY REPORT ON FORM 10-Q THAT WE HAD $185.3 MILLION OF CASH AND CASH EQUIVALENTS AT SEPTEMBER 30, 2009, AND THAT A PORTION OF OUR BANK CREDIT FACILITY IS UNUSED MAY IMPLY THAT WE HAVE ABUNDANT WORKING CAPITAL AND CASH LIQUIDITY. IN FACT, OUR REGULAR OPERATIONS REQUIRE LARGE AMOUNTS OF WORKING CASH AND OUR BANK CREDIT FACILITY IS SUBSTANTIALLY USED TO SECURE LETTERS OF CREDIT. WE RELY ON SOME OF OUR CASH ACCOUNTS TO SERVE AS COLLATERAL UNDER OUR CREDIT FACILITY AND WE HAVE DEFERRED, AS OF SEPTEMBER 30, 2009, PAYMENT OF $75 MILLION OF RENT PAYABLE TO HOSPITALITY TRUST, WHICH TOGETHER WITH ANY UNPAID INTEREST THEREON, WE MUST REPAY BY JULY 1, 2011. ACCORDINGLY, WE MAY NOT HAVE SUFFICIENT WORKING CAPITAL OR CASH LIQUIDITY; "

    This is one of the reasons I think it is important to look at the cash flow been generated by the business. If the cost of fuel rises, requiring more dollars to be invested in inventory - then that will be reflected in their cash flow. If their customers slow their payments which causes their accounts receivable to blow out - then that will be reflected in their cash flow. If their supplier reduce the credit they grant the company, this will probably be reflected in a reduction in accounts payable - which will effect their cash flow.

    With respect to the "good landlord" comment - the related party issue makes it hard to transparently see the real motivations for that deal and was it struck on the best terms for TA. But when you evaluate that, do it in light of the conditions that existed at the time they struck the rent deferral agreement.

    Good comments Pj, thanks for raising them.
    Feb 10 11:06 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why TravelCenters Will Keep on Truckin' [View article]
    "A major mistake might be to believe that the former $40 share price reflected future value."

    Yes, you are correct. I do assume the pre-recession valuation was a fair reflection of the value at that time in those economic circumstances.

    If you do not think it was a fair reflection, then that may alter your view.

    Thanks for raising this point for people to consider.
    Feb 10 10:03 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Expecting Acorn International to Grow into a Mighty Oak [View article]
    Acorn (ATV) jumped over 30% today. I believe the reasons are:

    1. Roth commenced coverage (in my posting above I said there was not much research available on this company and felt that as the word got out its share price would respond. finance.yahoo.com/q/ud...

    2. New govt regulations are probably going to favor Acorn (ATV) in the long run by eliminating some competition. finance.yahoo.com/news...

    www.thestreet.com/_yah...
    Oct 1 09:24 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Expecting Acorn International to Grow into a Mighty Oak [View article]
    1. Will they deliver on their guidance?
    2. China
    3. Fickle consumers
    4. etc


    On Sep 22 01:08 PM Burton A. Johnson wrote:

    > Interesting, but what is the downside?
    >
    > Burton A. Johnson, MD,JD
    > bajvalueinvesting.com
    Sep 22 07:16 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Expecting Acorn International to Grow into a Mighty Oak [View article]
    Thanks. I try to be transparent.

    You can view my portfolio and trades on covestor.com. They are like an independent umpire who track and measure performance - so you can easily see who the talkers are and who the doers are.

    They also have a little widget that displays your position and performance in a stock that you can add to blogs - but I have not been able to get it to display properly on this site.


    On Sep 22 09:15 AM mdpath wrote:

    > Glad to see you're putting your money where your mouth is unlike
    > most the pundits who write for SA.
    Sep 22 07:09 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Buy Forward Industries at 33% Off [View article]
    As a follow up - take a look at today's SEC filing biz.yahoo.com/e/090805... where the company said:

    "During the past three years, cell phone revenue in the OEM and aftermarket channel (sales to distributors and retailers), which historically was our largest revenue source by product line and was dependent on one or two major OEM customers, has declined so significantly that we no longer present such revenues separately but include them as part of "other products".

    On the bright side the CEO said in their earnings press release finance.yahoo.com/news...

    “In addition to our organic growth efforts, we remain very active on the strategic front. We continue to work closely with our financial advisor to identify and evaluate prospective targets for acquisition. In this challenging financial market, the strength of our balance sheet makes us an attractive partner to many companies. However, we will not commit to a transaction unless we believe that it will be in the best interests of our shareholders.”

    Mr. Sabra concluded, “We believe that we are taking the necessary steps to best position our company for success when economic conditions begin to improve. I look forward to updating you on our progress.”
    Aug 7 12:25 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • What I Like About MGT Capital [View article]
    I agree we should not count both the cash and the value of Medicsight which is why I said:

    "just look to either the cash or market value of MGT's investment in Medicsight - there is a nice margin of safety"

    "either" being the operative word.

    In retrospect, I could have been clearer - so thanks for clarifying that and highlighting the Non-Controlling Interest as well.

    Valuation is an interesting question with a lot of variables involved. They say in open source software "many eyes make all bugs shallow". I figure valuation is similar - many eyes help the market determine a fair valuation.

    .
    Aug 7 12:16 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Buy Forward Industries at 33% Off [View article]
    I agree. But it does indicate if management gets this business right again, the market may be prepared to value the shares higher then when they are now.
    Aug 4 10:24 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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