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Philip Davis

 
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  • Monday Market Movement: Do It Again [View article]
    Do you really not know the math or do you just make statements like this to negate statements that don't support the repressive system you benefit from?

    http://bit.ly/uZh4Iq

    The top 1% have 43% of the financial wealth in this country. FOURTY THREE. That is 4 times 10 plus another 3 for good measure. 43, yes, FOURTY THREE. They used to have 23%, but then Reagan was elected and the rest is a very sad history for the bottom 99%.

    That, by the way, is individual wealth. Our corporate citizens have done even better in the past 30 years, to the point where they are sitting on $3.5Tn of excess capital - not used to create jobs or do anything other than act as a black hole, that sucks up more and more money (through interest) out of the system and away from those who do not have it.

    So yes, to keep it simply, confiscating "all" the assets of the top 1% ($45Tn) would not only put a dent in the deficits, but it would allow us to go on a Bush-like spending spree for another 30 years and we'd STILL have money left to throw a heck of a party so - Off with their heads!!!!
    Dec 6, 2011. 08:03 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Full Throttle Friday: Dollar Dive Does Bears In [View article]
    We don't let FAS become a problem because we sell premium (short calls), we don't buy it, so the decay works in our favor. Occasionally, we'll do a bullish play on FAS of no more than a month but, after that, the decay tends to get you - especially in a choppy market.
    Dec 4, 2011. 12:31 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Full Throttle Friday: Dollar Dive Does Bears In [View article]
    FAS and XLF are both useful for different time-frames. In our FAS Money trade, we're long XLF because it doesn't decay and short on weekly FAS calls (when we're bearish, of course).


    As to RIG, they got low enough for us to sell short puts on them.
    Dec 2, 2011. 02:36 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Thrill Is Gone Thursday: Already? [View article]
    Different terms. AA is a long-term spread trade we work every week with short put and call sales, FAS and IWM are too but they are generally bullish positions over the long term, we call them out "money" trades as our aim is to make a weekly income from them. The other 4 we went long in Monday's morning post and they should be closing today as we probably don't want to push it over the weekend.

    We have many, many 2013 and 2014 plays but they are boring and we don't talk about them - it's the short-term plays that get all the press but, in reality, most of us are long-term investors and we day-trade for fun while we wait for our longer-term positions to mature.
    Dec 2, 2011. 07:47 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Wall Of Worry Wednesday: Time To Climb? [View article]
    Germany does this very well, unlike the US, they concentrated on educating their workforce and now have many highly skilled laborers who make superior salaries and they run an efficient and robust economy. Also, unlike the US, they were happy to have people come to their country and do the less-skilled labor - those are not jobs they need to protect to make a good future.

    If you have $15 to your name and no debt, you are in the top 20% of THIS country - you seem to get a lot of those Foxified statistics, I would suggest spending a little time reading from the left - even the NYTimes would do you some good.
    Dec 1, 2011. 03:12 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Wall Of Worry Wednesday: Time To Climb? [View article]
    That is just ridiculous. There are over 300M people in this country so, if you have a one in a Million shot of getting wealthy then someone will "succeed" every day.

    A society needs to be concerned with the needs of the many and it's the ability of the greater middle class (20%-80%) to STEADILY improve their standard of living that defines a progressive society, not random examples of people who make money so you can pretend the system works.

    It is very clear, in study after study, that the bottom 80% have had a steady decline in their standard of living since the early 80s while the top 20%, other than the very top 1%, have barely kept up with inflation.

    The top 1% on the other hand, have very clearly taken every dime lost by the bottom 99% as the wealth gap in this country is greater now than it was right before the crash in the Great Depression because, funny thing, it does turn out the top 1% need the bottom 99% to remain solvent - but, like you, they are clearly in too much of a state of denial to do anything about it until after it affects their greedy asses as well.
    Dec 1, 2011. 10:14 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Wednesday Whiplash: Coordinated Central Bank Action Traps Bears [View article]
    That chart was from Slope of Hope - it's been corrected on my site and should be on SA soon as well. I copied a link thinking it was done by JRW so my bad. This is why I usually stick to guys who are already in our Chart School - so we know we have permission to use them...
    Dec 1, 2011. 09:18 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Just Another Cyber Monday (Manic Edition) [View article]
    Yes, a very touchy subject on both sides.

    I think that clip from Fawlty Towers sums up the issue nicely - of course that was from about the 70s - so closer to the bone then.

    You have to give the Brits another generation to forgive and forget - my Mom, for example, was born during the Blitz on London and, to this day, is terrified of explosions. My Granfather's house was blown up and he and my Grandmother were taken to separate hospitals and it was over a week before they found out each other weren't dead - not the kind of thing you forget (or forgive) and not the kind of thing their children forget and, while I have the perspective to forgive - obviously I don't forget either and I will certainly pass those stories down to my children who, I'm sure, will remember who the "bad guys" are too.

    So 70 years is not a long time and the British, being much better at history than we are, have a rough time forgiving France as well, who were the invaders and plotters and shemers behind almost every war for 500 years - not to mention, they were the bastards who helped the Americans hand them their worst defeat (they still call us "the colonies").

    Of course, if you're Irish - I'm sure you know how hard it is to forgive and forget as the Brits certainly knew how to dish it out as well.
    Nov 30, 2011. 06:26 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Just Another Cyber Monday (Manic Edition) [View article]
    Sorry Carve but I'm not sure it's anti-German to make historical references in which Germans just so happened to be "the bad guys."

    My Grandfather was English and I must have been about 10 before I knew the proper name for the people wasn't "Bloody Germans" but I married a German girl so I do know how sensitive some of the family can be about things I think are funny.

    In short: "Don't mention the war!"

    http://bit.ly/uso1sn
    Nov 29, 2011. 01:54 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Wall Of Worry Wednesday: Time To Climb? [View article]
    The Senate is set to vote on a bill today that would define the whole of the United States as a “battlefield” and allow the U.S. Military to arrest American citizens in their own back yard without charge or trial.

    http://bit.ly/rN1iIV

    Need I say more?
    Nov 28, 2011. 02:59 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Wall Of Worry Wednesday: Time To Climb? [View article]
    And what D Virginia said!
    Nov 28, 2011. 02:57 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Wall Of Worry Wednesday: Time To Climb? [View article]
    This is a good discussion in general but let's be clear here - the problem with Conservatives (ie you Swing) is that you don't even understand what the statement "We don't think anyone should live like that" means.

    There is only so much food in the world, there is only so much land, etc - even money.

    To be simple about it, using land to substitute for all wealth, if there are 100,000,000 acres and 100,000,000 families - there is enough land for every single person in the country to have a comfortable one-acre home. The way the US is set up now is that 100 of those families have 7M acres - allowing each family 70,000 acres each to build a home on.

    The rest of the top 1,000,000 families own 43M more acres (but it's a very stretched average), they get 43 acres each to build their dream homes.

    The rest of the top 10,0000,000 families (9M, of course) own another 38M acres - still 3.8 acres each for those in the top 10% - what's the problem, they say?

    The 10M families after them have 12M acres - 1.2 acres per family is not so bad, right?

    The problem is that the other 80M people have to split the last 7M acres and that's less than one tenth of one acre per family. They can't build a dream home - they can't even dream and THAT is why no one should live like THAT!

    Should everyone be forced to have one-acre no matter how much or how little they work? No, that is Communism. Should anyone be allowed to have 700,000 times more land than another family no matter how hard they work? No, that is simply a crime against humanity.

    Not only does the greed and excess of the top 1% deprive the bottom 80% of vital resources but it also drives the cost of those resources up by creating a false demand for land, food, wood, oil, etc. When Donald Trump takes his private Jet to Florida, he's using as much fuel as 200 people flying Delta. You can argue that he can afford it so he deserves it but it increases the cost of fuel for those 200 people as well - his pleasure inflicts suffering in others.

    The land is obvious - the rich take all the "good" land and leave the crap for the rest and they drive up the cost of all land by having much more than they can use. Money is the same way - if US corporations weren't sitting on $2Tn then that $2Tn would be in the economy and there would be less demand for money and money would be less expensive and small businesses could borrow it and hire people and build up to take market share from the big businesses.

    That is why they are sitting on $2Tn and working to wreck the US workforce because a non-competitive US workforce means you won't be able to start a company full of bright hard-working people to challenge them so they cut the education budgets and ship all the jobs overseas leaving you - the small business owner - with a nation of retail clerks to work with - no threat at all to Big Business...
    Nov 28, 2011. 02:54 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Monday Madness: Hard Times Ahead, Says Spain's Rajoy [View article]
    I think that's very fair. We kicked Income Trade off the site BECAUSE he did what you said. We do feature other traders and we do hold them to standards (with communicating clearly and timely with our Members being # 1) and, when they are not met - we do not continue the relationship.

    I would appreciate it, however, if you take WFR in proper context. For example, at $15.69 (you can follow the link you provided) what I said was:

    We will, of course, be looking for some of our old friends who come back to those levels - we already pulled the trigger on Disney (DIS) in Monday’s post and Ruby Tuesday (RT) looks good again and we picked up SunPower (SPWRA) yesterday, MEMC (WFR) is getting close, but the others still have a ways to fall before we would consider them bargains again.

    I would hardly call that a pick at that level, would you?

    The second time, at $13.32 what I said in that post was:

    I mentioned that GE should do well on infrastructure building. My big concern with them remains Commercial Real Estate but no one else seems worried about that sector. GE is also big on solar projects, which should do well and my favorite pure play on Solar remains Sun Power (SPWRA), who are the quality leader but I also like Suntech (STP) and, of course, MEMC (WFR) on the chip side. Also in the chip space is Applied Materials (AMAT) and Intel (INTC) while Corning (GLW) should have a great year supplying glass for all the new electronic devices us top 10%’ers love to buy.

    I guess we can call that a call to buy WFR. I did say I liked it but that was December 28th of 2009 and WFR hit $17 in April. Is that a bad pick or a good pick. I guess it's bad if the rule is that anything I mention if it ever ends up lower it's a bad pick but, as you obviously know, that's not how we trade at all.

    In August of 2010, WFR was back down to $9.41 and we liked them again. That happened to be their exact low for the year and they went from there back to $15 before selling off. Again, up 50% but then, 2 years later down - you can interpret it either way I suppose.

    Jan 3rd, same thing, they fell back to a level where we like to buy them at $11.32. That time, we only got the pop to $15 so poor performance on that one relatively for sure.

    On 9/9, I did say I liked WFR long but also said "hedged of course". The actual trade from our Member Chat was:

    At $6.79 I still love them and you can sell the 2013 $5 calls for $2.70 and the $7.50 puts for $2.05 for a net $2.04/4.77 entry which is 30% off if put to you and a 145% profit if called away over $7.50 (and you only need to be over $4.77 to be profitable).

    At the moment, that one is certainly looking bad but that's what we mean when we say a hedged entry - we only liked it in September because we could add a 30% discount - jokes on us so far as they fell more than that but - I still like them!


    Nov 23, 2011. 05:04 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Wall Of Worry Wednesday: Time To Climb? [View article]
    I'm sorry Dave, it's just there's always someone like you (but not you of course, you are totally different) who has 100 reasons why oil will go higher and why it's short etc. and I guess it's because I know my history and have heard the same song year after year, decade after decade that all the noise just sort of blends in together.

    I'm sure 27M Saudis will shock the World with the amount of oil they consume and China will do their thing and India and maybe even Africa will start getting into Indy racing and chew through a lot of fuel and they will all have $100, $200 and $300 a barrel to pay for it because right now they're just blowing it on hookers and beer anyway so buying fuel and lighting it on fire makes so much more sense.

    By the way, did you know that Soarbuzz forecasts China's consumption of SOLAR PANELS will be up 130% this year? Their fuel consumption, oddly enough, is flat to last year. Hopefully the Saudis don't get any crazy ideas about solar, that will make it hard for them to hit their consumption goals...

    http://bit.ly/tSZH2W
    Nov 23, 2011. 03:59 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Wall Of Worry Wednesday: Time To Climb? [View article]
    Fortunately, the US will not have to consume a disproportionate amount of the World's supply. Aside from dropping another 4.5% this year, we will be raising our fuel standards over the next decade so we consume 50% less gas or the entrie consumption of China and India combined.

    In addition to the US cutting back, if Europe cuts back and China and India (and now, I guess, Saudi Arabia) don't grow at the massive rates that you are projecting - World oil consumption has likely already peaked.

    And, of course, there are dozens of alternate feuls on the horizon so we're really about one breakthrough plus a decade away from putting our peak oil worries on a shelf along with the peak coal worries of the past and the peak whale oil worries before them and, before that, peak wood!

    Yep, there's always someone who likes to run around and tell people the sky is falling and sometimes there is hail but, generally, it stays up there...
    Nov 23, 2011. 01:54 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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