Philip Davis

Options Trader: Wednesday Outlook

By the way Al and C, last year we ran a "Free Picks" portfolio where every single trade was published in the main post before the markets even opened. That portfolio gained 350% and you can go over each and every one of those trades (there's even a review when we closed it) and verify those without even being a member.

Options Trader: Wednesday Outlook

Wow such anger from contender and Al... I'm not going to sit here and defend myself and every single trade we make in the member portfolios ($10KP, $25KP, DTP) is printed in chat BEFORE the trade is made. That has been our system for over a year. Nobody claims to make 300% a month so if you are going to attempt to disparage someone elses work perhaps you should "get real" - whatever your problem is with me, you can resolve it simply by just not reading what I write. If it's not helpful to you, why waste your time - surely you don't have that much of it???


I'd personally rather spend mine answering legitimate questions like Blue Dogs.

On BAC - We already had the 2010 $35s back on 4/14 and we've been scaling into it over time following the gameplan from this article: www.philstockworld.com.../

We thought the financials were cheap then and we really think they are cheap now but it is key to take a long position, sell calls against it and roll the position to a lower strike as it falls, selling more calls along the way. This helps mitigate some, but not all of the losses and BAC is currently down 50% on us despite the scaling in but we are now in the 2010 $25 calls for a net of about $6.

The banks have been a real disaster and the financials make up close to 20% of our Long-Term Portfolio, which got killed the past two days.

As Al points out, these are just my trades and I'm not a financial advisor and you should ALWAYS consult a financial advisor before making any trade.

If I were still sitting on the BAC 2010 $35s at $1.20 I would be looking just to get even and I would roll the calls to the Jan '09 $22.50s at $3.10 (+$1.90) and sell 1/2 covers of the current $22.50s for $1.15 with a plan on rolling those to a full cover of the Aug $25s, which now sell for $1.08 so my expectation is to get $1.15 premium on 1/2 of my calls (.77) plus hopefully another $1 for the $25s so that's $1.77 of my $1.90 roll paid for.

My game plan going forward would be to get at least $1 of premium per month selling calls and if I do that for Sept, Oct, Nov and Dec that's $4 per contract made up plus whatever residual value I have left in the Jan position. Realistically, I'd probably double up the position on the roll as that way I only need to sell $2.50 worth of calls and retain my $3 value to get even, which is a much more obtainable goal.

Options Trader: Wednesday Outlook

Thanks junk! How about protecting the environment, universal health care, equitable distrubution of wealth and living wages? No one is "immune" to oil lobbying because the system is built around it BUT you will find that about 80% of the money goes to Republicans and one would have to assume they go where they are getting the most bang for their buck which on could deduce means that it's 4x harder to get a Democrat to drop their principles simply because you write them a check but that's just a supposition of course...

Thanks Morgan - looks like that writer is right already! My target is a little more ambitious at $85. Tell your folks I said hi, even though that makes me feel really old!

Contender - You confuse checking the facts with bending over and accepting whatever BS Goldman hands out as gospel. Whoever made that clue doesn't know jack about the airline ordering process and I said as much the day it came out. I predict not only will orders not be cancelled but that there will be a market for trading slots. How soon would you like to start saving 20% of your fuel cost which is over 40% of your entire operating cost as a comany that drops (using CAL as an example) just 5% to the bottom line in a good year? It's not even a choice to switch, airlines cannot compete without upgrading their fleet.

As to our gains. They are simply the results of the tracked member portfolios with every single entry and exit publically traded with 1,000 members on-line trading every day on my site. We have a 98% monthly retention rate vs. an industry average of just over 70% and half the people who we did lose last year cited politics as their reason for leaving, not trading. I made a decision a long time ago that if conservatives can't take a little sermon with their economic salvation then they can damn well go pray for a winner somewhere else. Not surprisingly my board is still 50% Republicans as they don't really care what your politics are as long as your money is green!

Thanks Phin!