Philip Davis

Options Trader: Wednesday Outlook

That is very impresssive stuff Jack but I get stuck at how you're getting from FSLR's current use of 3 tonnes of tellurium last year (which was 10% of global production) to having free access to 300 tonnes. I have seen nothing to indicate production levels likely over 350 tonnes no matter what the price as the extraction of Te depends on someone first wanting copper.

If you have links I'd be happy to take a look at that IS the crux of my bearish long-term outlook on FSLR (although the fact that their contracts lower prices 20% per year and that Germany may be topping off their own solar rebates are coming in a close second and third now).

My assumption is that even if Te production does somehow increase to 350 MT a year and FSLR grabs 1/4 of it, that's ony enough for perhaps 1 GW at that point. Also - wouldn't it be awful if some other solar company decided to use Te, since it's so fantastic?

Options Trader: Wednesday Outlook

I stand corrected re. the Yuan, it did not occur to me that it wasn't in dollars so that's just the 3,000% increase in price then correct? I'll make sure we fix that fact.


We did short FSLR out of the box, both on the leap I recommended and, ultimately, we took the $320 puts during or morning session (we do live trading on the member site) so we're pretty pleased so far. Today we grabbed the $310 puts for a nice morning double and we'll short them again if they go up again but the leap stays naked, looking for a double over time.

Mark - that ad is a classic! Maybe I should apply and hook them up with Jack Satan, he seems to have some tellurium to unload. I really don't understand why it upsets people to point out a problem with an investment. Yes, I was wrong about the amount per Kg and I will say so but that doesn't change the fact that there is not enough tellurium on the planet earth for this company to fulfill their business model - the one that people are investing in.

Thanks for the forum link Energy!

ISRG was cheap at $300 (it went to $350) and we bought it again at $280 last month and it's still cheap at $290 but thanks for being a long-time reader global!

Options Trader: Wednesday Outlook

If you have other data and can post links I'd be happy to take a look at it.

Outlook for Copper Far From Rosy

Nice research! Do gold next please!

A Few Miner Adjustments: BHP Billiton & Phelps Dodge

Follow up:

That worked out great! We got out of the PD $80 puts at $1.40 (up 200% from our 8/24 call) as it turned up on us, we don't reenter these as there is not enough time in the month anymore.

The BHPs are holding their value but we only bought them for insurance to get us out of PD, not as a trade so I'm out at the end of the day or .75 (+ .05), whichever comes first - currently .80. I'm raising the stop a nickel with each move up as I have no love for this position.