Philip Davis

GS and MS Dominion Buyout: Liar's Poker

You are both correct! But only if you buy into the arguement that nat gas is worth $5/Mcf as the rate of extraction and increasing costs over time push break even back much further than you think.

It's kind of the point I was making, everything seems like a bargain if you triple the price of everything else but what if gas is only worth $3/mcf and oil is only worth $40 a barrel? Will they extract and deliver it out of the goodness of their hearts?

The fact is this is a segment that is dragging Dominion's earnings DOWN and they are trying to get while the getting is good. The last thing GS/MS want is for KKR (the other bidder) to purchase an E&P asset for a discount to the "market" pricing because it automatically calls into question their current asset base as well as possibly putting a crimp into deals they may have in progress.

Saul, I will certainly credit you with being correct as to the amazing resilaincy of XOM, it does seem bulletproof - so I took the '08 puts!

- Phil