Comments on Philip Kieng's articles RSS Syndication from SeekingAlpha.com http://seekingalpha.com/author/philip-kieng/articles http://seekingalpha.com/article/132604-china-takes-over-the-world?source=feed#comment-515634 515634 Sat, 23 May 2009 17:03:08 -0400
Up to the Crash, The Chinese were a Big Consumer of anything Foreign. You name it they bought it, Big Flat Screens, Cars, Refrigerators.

2 reasons, a sign of wealth and the Junk China was producing for its internal consumption. Now the Good stuff is kept but once the People feel better they will resume buying externally with a vengeance.

The Internet has shown them what an be had.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/132604-china-takes-over-the-world?source=feed#comment-504823 504823 Fri, 15 May 2009 03:43:46 -0400
-Would you move to China to take advantage of the growth?
-Would you prefer to work for a MNC?
-Do you think that China would actually become a consumer of any potential future US goods/services vs. its own?

Just curious to see what you think. ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/132604-china-takes-over-the-world?source=feed#comment-493479 493479 Thu, 07 May 2009 08:25:39 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/132904-the-u-s-is-spending-its-way-out-of-the-recession?source=feed#comment-477422 477422 Sat, 25 Apr 2009 21:10:51 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/132904-the-u-s-is-spending-its-way-out-of-the-recession?source=feed#comment-477392 477392 Sat, 25 Apr 2009 20:11:16 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/132904-the-u-s-is-spending-its-way-out-of-the-recession?source=feed#comment-476665 476665 Fri, 24 Apr 2009 21:51:17 -0400 CapitalistHero wrote: Private money goes to projects that people are willing to invest their own money in, and therefore are much more likely to be profitable and by definition fulfill a need in the economy.

Not Necessarily

If there's one thing that this recession has shown us quite clearly it's that even when people are investing their own money they are still entirely capable of cranial-rectal inversion. The justification described by Keynes for government spending is that the government is motivated to spend money on things that the private sector has no motivation to pursue. Private interests aren't going to provide funds for your child's school district, although there are plenty of private funds in companies that will sell your child fast-food or video games. The government does its best to act in the public interest. Private ventures are more often products of greed and salesmanship.

Someone's willingness to invest their money in something should not be taken as a sign of investment quality-look at how many people took courses to get a real estate license over the course of the last ten years-by your logic real estate is the place to be and has been for some time. Remember the dot-com bubble? AIG was funded by private money also-look how wonderfully that turned out. Let's not forget Chrysler. It wasn't Iacocca and the government that tanked them for a second time-it was those brilliant marketing plans that had them pushing 400+ horsepower hemi powered sedans when gas was over $4.50 a gallon.

Admittedly, Keynes is a bit out-dated; Galbraith made a statement to the effect that: "No economist can be right forever, if he can just be mostly right in his own era he's doing about as well as anybody can." Keynes' logic was framed by his experiences working with the British government in the interim years between the two wars, and part of his earnest call for government intervention was as a reaction to the gross profiteering and mismanagement that he observed in the transition period after the first great war. ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/132904-the-u-s-is-spending-its-way-out-of-the-recession?source=feed#comment-476636 476636 Capitalist hero: no, Federal spending does not "crowd out" investment > in a deflation, since there is no investment going on in a deflationary > spiral. You do raise a good point: when the recovery eventually happens, > spending should be reeled in, and that could be politically difficult. > But that's a political, and not an economic, objection. > > Stevielee: no, you should do what you need to do, keep looking and > bring down expenses. But in economics, the advice offered in the > aggregate is _not_ necessarily the advice offered to an individual, > and to assume so is actually something of a fallacy.]]> Fri, 24 Apr 2009 21:05:10 -0400 Even in a deflationary cycle there is spending.... spending less, but spending none the less. (Spending less on any given item; that is how you know it is deflationary). What really is 'crowded out' is corporate profit.... no profit; no taxes to pay. Just released....... first six months data.... corporate tax reciepts to the Treasury; down 57%.
YOU read that right.
Any more stupid comments????



On Apr 24 11:54 AM _richard_ wrote:

> Capitalist hero: no, Federal spending does not "crowd out" investment
> in a deflation, since there is no investment going on in a deflationary
> spiral. You do raise a good point: when the recovery eventually happens,
> spending should be reeled in, and that could be politically difficult.
> But that's a political, and not an economic, objection.
>
> Stevielee: no, you should do what you need to do, keep looking and
> bring down expenses. But in economics, the advice offered in the
> aggregate is _not_ necessarily the advice offered to an individual,
> and to assume so is actually something of a fallacy.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/132904-the-u-s-is-spending-its-way-out-of-the-recession?source=feed#comment-476627 476627 My family is following this policy on a personal level. Due to unforseeable > circumstance, we are near bankruptcy. We haven't made a house payment > on our new home in 9 months, but thankfully Fannie Mae is letting > us live rent free at present. Our credit cards are maxed out and > unfortunately we're behind on payments there too. I'm hoping Barney > Frank can finally muzzle those greedy credit card companies so they'll > leave me alone. Obviously I can't make the payments on my 2009 Ford, > much less my wife's 2008 Lexus. I have no idea how we'll meet the > kids private school tuition of 15K for next year. Retirement, college, > health care, fuggedabout it. > > All of that was starting to get a little depressing, but I've been > watching CNBC and reading about green shoots. Bernanke and Obama > and Geithner say we're turning this thing around. They're investing > in America and they want me to do my part. I can definitely see the > logic, I mean if I quit spending just because I'm dead broke, how > will everyone else make a living? My brother-in-law loaned me 5,000 > bucks to get us through this tough period. So, we've decided to take > a long vacation to Vegas and blow it out. I think this is where we > turn it all around. Wish me luck.]]> Fri, 24 Apr 2009 20:56:49 -0400 I am counting on them to save us all!!!!
I am just saving more than normal (10%), and nibbling on the
opportunities...........


On Apr 24 09:05 AM wdhalgren wrote:

> My family is following this policy on a personal level. Due to unforseeable
> circumstance, we are near bankruptcy. We haven't made a house payment
> on our new home in 9 months, but thankfully Fannie Mae is letting
> us live rent free at present. Our credit cards are maxed out and
> unfortunately we're behind on payments there too. I'm hoping Barney
> Frank can finally muzzle those greedy credit card companies so they'll
> leave me alone. Obviously I can't make the payments on my 2009 Ford,
> much less my wife's 2008 Lexus. I have no idea how we'll meet the
> kids private school tuition of 15K for next year. Retirement, college,
> health care, fuggedabout it.
>
> All of that was starting to get a little depressing, but I've been
> watching CNBC and reading about green shoots. Bernanke and Obama
> and Geithner say we're turning this thing around. They're investing
> in America and they want me to do my part. I can definitely see the
> logic, I mean if I quit spending just because I'm dead broke, how
> will everyone else make a living? My brother-in-law loaned me 5,000
> bucks to get us through this tough period. So, we've decided to take
> a long vacation to Vegas and blow it out. I think this is where we
> turn it all around. Wish me luck.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/132904-the-u-s-is-spending-its-way-out-of-the-recession?source=feed#comment-476609 476609 The writer here seriously confuses monetary and fiscal policy. Yes > the government is spending too much, and taking on too much debt. > > > But that is dwarfed by the amount of printing going on. TARP and > quantitative easing and all that means we have had huge increases > in the money supply that are likely to lead to serious inflation. > > > With inflation the government will be paying back in cheaper dollars > so the debt won't be such a burden. Or it least it is heading that > way. > > The problem is that the inflation acts as a confiscatory tax on anyone > who has accumulated savings in dollars. So get out of dollars and > into real assets - gold, silver, commodities and so on are the way > to hide from the coming inflation.]]> Fri, 24 Apr 2009 20:25:53 -0400 So many hedge funds and others talk about going to cash. It really appears to be almost worthless soon. I am investing in food production and gold. People always have got to eat and my 50$/lb organic tomatoes will probably sell like hotcakes because if people want they will be real juicy and perfect for throwing at politicians and bank execs! And if the tax collectors want my savings they are going to have to pick their own.


On Apr 24 07:29 PM bricki wrote:

> The writer here seriously confuses monetary and fiscal policy. Yes
> the government is spending too much, and taking on too much debt.
>
>
> But that is dwarfed by the amount of printing going on. TARP and
> quantitative easing and all that means we have had huge increases
> in the money supply that are likely to lead to serious inflation.
>
>
> With inflation the government will be paying back in cheaper dollars
> so the debt won't be such a burden. Or it least it is heading that
> way.
>
> The problem is that the inflation acts as a confiscatory tax on anyone
> who has accumulated savings in dollars. So get out of dollars and
> into real assets - gold, silver, commodities and so on are the way
> to hide from the coming inflation.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/132904-the-u-s-is-spending-its-way-out-of-the-recession?source=feed#comment-476556 476556 Fri, 24 Apr 2009 19:29:57 -0400
But that is dwarfed by the amount of printing going on. TARP and quantitative easing and all that means we have had huge increases in the money supply that are likely to lead to serious inflation.

With inflation the government will be paying back in cheaper dollars so the debt won't be such a burden. Or it least it is heading that way.

The problem is that the inflation acts as a confiscatory tax on anyone who has accumulated savings in dollars. So get out of dollars and into real assets - gold, silver, commodities and so on are the way to hide from the coming inflation.
]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/132904-the-u-s-is-spending-its-way-out-of-the-recession?source=feed#comment-476548 476548 Fri, 24 Apr 2009 19:20:49 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/132904-the-u-s-is-spending-its-way-out-of-the-recession?source=feed#comment-476510 476510 Fri, 24 Apr 2009 18:22:34 -0400
Fixing a crisis caused by huge debt loads and spending money we don't have cannot be fixed by even larger debt loads and spending more money we don't have.

I love how "experts" sit in their very narrow little worlds and "see" reality for the rest of us.

Banks are using dirty tactics to force employers and consumers into bankruptcy and insolvency.

The government cannot "spend" our way out of that reality. This country was living on credit and now that is virtually gone.

50 year old businesses, who were just hanging on-thanks to off shoring-are now closing their doors forever. Laying off more Americans, bankrupting owners and devastating towns across American.

Yet "experts" speak of "softening" and "recovery" and "government & banks know best"

Thanks for your help in the upcoming major crisis the likes of which has never been seen on this scale before.

After all, the President (King?) and Finance Minister of Zimbabwe were quick to praise Obama and Congress' plan. Stated that they employed the same techniques to "fix" their economy.

Have you seen the value of their dollar? Coming soon to "long haul" investments near you.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/132904-the-u-s-is-spending-its-way-out-of-the-recession?source=feed#comment-476465 476465 Fri, 24 Apr 2009 17:33:51 -0400
Wouldn't that mean that because "G" is going like gangbusters right now that in the future "C" will get Squeezed and "G" will have less "Real Income"?

This implies a Very Long Time in a reduced state of prosperity.

Unless of course it is all "A Funny Money System" With No real Need For Populous Participation.

Short Sighted Solutions Skew The View.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/132904-the-u-s-is-spending-its-way-out-of-the-recession?source=feed#comment-476433 476433 Fri, 24 Apr 2009 17:04:01 -0400
My mother and father in law have the same program. Everytime rates go down they refinance their home mortgage to help pay off their new cars and all the other crap they don't need. So they add the costs of the refinance, car payments and credit cards to the loan and extend the length out again. Essentially lowering there monthly payments and getting nowhere but living a nice comfortable life.


We ( my wife and I) on the other hand own our house, a large piece of land that I farm and cars outright. We have cash on hand to invest and if the farming does not work out so well we will most likely be able to sell parts of the farm for house lots.

So I think I will do all right and I better because I will probably inherit a broken down house worth less than the money still owed on it. Just like future generations will inherit a broken down country.

Yeah just spend like there is no tomorrow and pass the debt off to the kids. People have to cut this crap out and the author of this article is just disgustingly irresponsible as is our government and so many in the world. Rant Over.

Rant over]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/132904-the-u-s-is-spending-its-way-out-of-the-recession?source=feed#comment-476379 476379 Fri, 24 Apr 2009 16:32:10 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/132904-the-u-s-is-spending-its-way-out-of-the-recession?source=feed#comment-476290 476290 Fri, 24 Apr 2009 15:23:38 -0400
Doug T......The mutual fund guy
www.mutualfundwealth.com/]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/132904-the-u-s-is-spending-its-way-out-of-the-recession?source=feed#comment-476271 476271 Fri, 24 Apr 2009 15:12:56 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/132904-the-u-s-is-spending-its-way-out-of-the-recession?source=feed#comment-476173 476173 Fri, 24 Apr 2009 14:23:13 -0400
So how does the government spend money it doesn't have, and further, how does spending money you do not have, "soften the recession?" And what do you mean by "softening the recession?" Socialism? Speak in clear terms so people can understand you. Not like a Fed chairman. No wonder "most people don't understand."]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/132904-the-u-s-is-spending-its-way-out-of-the-recession?source=feed#comment-476112 476112 Fri, 24 Apr 2009 13:54:40 -0400
Capitalist hero has it right in the long run. Government spending does "crowd out" a more efficient private sector and does major long-term damage. Does anyone believe that new government spending programs can quickly be ended once the deflationary depression risks are ended?

Richard offers the conventional rationale for Keynesian policy. It is true that neither consumers nor business are much inclined to spend and invest currently, thus providing the crisis opportunity that big-government Democrats are not inclined to waste.

But suppose the massive spending programs recently enacted had been replaced by massive tax cuts for business and consumers while at the same time interest rates were forced down so that both sectors could refinance their liabilities, the ratio of incomes to liabilities in the private sector would then be enhanced dramatically and the natural propensity of consumers to spend would bring the downward spiral to a halt. It would be much easier (at least in theory) to raise taxes once the economy has recovered than to eliminate entrenched government programs. ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/132604-china-takes-over-the-world?source=feed#comment-476037 476037 Fri, 24 Apr 2009 13:11:11 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/132604-china-takes-over-the-world?source=feed#comment-476005 476005 Fri, 24 Apr 2009 12:56:42 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/132904-the-u-s-is-spending-its-way-out-of-the-recession?source=feed#comment-475996 475996 Fri, 24 Apr 2009 12:53:05 -0400
(Gee, I wonder why the other three can't contribute much more?)

HEY! I AGREE! After all, they need their "hundreds of billions" of "dividends" every year - "cash flow, baby!" What Exxon wouldn't do to have even half-a-year like that?]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/132904-the-u-s-is-spending-its-way-out-of-the-recession?source=feed#comment-475859 475859 Fri, 24 Apr 2009 11:54:22 -0400
Stevielee: no, you should do what you need to do, keep looking and bring down expenses. But in economics, the advice offered in the aggregate is _not_ necessarily the advice offered to an individual, and to assume so is actually something of a fallacy.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/132904-the-u-s-is-spending-its-way-out-of-the-recession?source=feed#comment-475854 475854 Fri, 24 Apr 2009 11:51:51 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/132904-the-u-s-is-spending-its-way-out-of-the-recession?source=feed#comment-475801 475801 Fri, 24 Apr 2009 11:24:38 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/132604-china-takes-over-the-world?source=feed#comment-475704 475704 Yes, Dustinian, there is nothing at all socialistic about the President > of the United States firing the CEO of GM. Nothing to see here folks. > Move along. > > (To be precise, we're moving in the direction of fascism rather than > traditional socialism, as aptly explained by Yaron Brook in this > PJTV video: http://www.pjtv.com/video/PJTV_Daily/Is_the_Government_in_the_Car_Business%3F/1609/;jsessionid=abcDovzj_... > > > As for China, I wish them the best, and hope they can keep moving > in the direction of increased freedom. The more wealthy, capitalistic > countries in the world there are, the better for all of us.]]> Fri, 24 Apr 2009 10:48:27 -0400
*shriek* Command economy!


On Apr 23 01:47 PM Dana H. wrote:

> Yes, Dustinian, there is nothing at all socialistic about the President
> of the United States firing the CEO of GM. Nothing to see here folks.
> Move along.
>
> (To be precise, we're moving in the direction of fascism rather than
> traditional socialism, as aptly explained by Yaron Brook in this
> PJTV video: www.pjtv.com/video/PJT.../;jsessionid=abcDovzj_...
>
>
> As for China, I wish them the best, and hope they can keep moving
> in the direction of increased freedom. The more wealthy, capitalistic
> countries in the world there are, the better for all of us.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/132604-china-takes-over-the-world?source=feed#comment-475678 475678 Fri, 24 Apr 2009 10:34:53 -0400 China should not and will not fall into the mistakes that other countries made before. Humble and resilient is the best way to co-operate in this world.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/132904-the-u-s-is-spending-its-way-out-of-the-recession?source=feed#comment-475560 475560 Fri, 24 Apr 2009 09:40:03 -0400
The broad brush approach the media and the uninformed are so eager to vocalize will cause many that need a better way to approach re-energizing their portfolios to sit out of a value opportunity in an asset class that has beaten up to an excess. Probably the best opportunity to buy unfairly devalued assets like real estate for the rest of many of our lives.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/132904-the-u-s-is-spending-its-way-out-of-the-recession?source=feed#comment-475550 475550 Fri, 24 Apr 2009 09:30:15 -0400
I've maxed out my credit cards, bought to much house, wife's got that new car she deserves, and I just lost my job.

Instead of going out and getting any and every job, maybe two or three, selling the car, selling the house, selling furniture, getting the wife and kids to go to work, not spend, but save, and reduce and renegotiate debt...


The author suggests...

that I should stay home and continue to fax those resumes, (can't leave the house and miss that call!) To fix my cash problem, I should acquire more credit cards, and seek an open line of credit.

Borrowing and continuing to spend, will thus alleviate my current negative cash balance and give me a sense of well being, softening my current malaise and worry.

]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/132904-the-u-s-is-spending-its-way-out-of-the-recession?source=feed#comment-475527 475527 Fri, 24 Apr 2009 09:15:40 -0400