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Philip Mause  

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  • You Big Dummy, I Just Bought More Shares In Lexington Realty [View article]
    Excellent article! I picked up some more on Thursday and this has become one of my largest positions. It is a real head scratcher; I remember wondering why STX and WDC were so, so cheap for so long and I kept wondering whether I was missing something, only to be vindicated when they skyrocketed - I have the same feeling here. It does make me wonder about the "efficient market" theory.
    May 2, 2015. 01:18 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The Last Two Oil Crashes Show Peak Oil Is Real [View article]
    It is important to analyze historic prices using real prices (adjusted for inflation). On this basis, oil has been trading above 25 2015 dollars since 1973 with a very brief dip in 1998 and 1999 due to the collapse of the USSR. In fact, looking at the past 40 years, it is hard to discern a clear trend although, in fairness, an argument can be made for a modest uptrend. But it really looks like pricing which is dominated by boom/bust cycles rather than pricing reflecting a clear long term trend.
    Apr 24, 2015. 10:31 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • U.S. Oil Production Has Started Its Decline [View article]
    I have been generally lightening up and raising some cash but I would not see $86 a barrel as the end of the world. It would probably mean that demand was picking up and so it might even be a good sign.
    Apr 24, 2015. 04:10 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • U.S. Oil Production Has Started Its Decline [View article]
    I realize that I may have missed the bottom but the question is - what should you do now? And I think that passing the point of inflection in US production suggests getting in. Lots of people didn't load up on stocks in March 2009 but still made money getting in well after the bottom. The same thing happened in 1932 and 1982.
    Apr 24, 2015. 04:08 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Aiming My Sights On A Beaten-Down STAG Industrial [View article]
    So I guess that the current P/FFO is 15 which is about group average and you see a good growth scenario. We should try to track what happens on lease expirations but it looks like a pretty good picture. Of course, I like to get in when P/FFO is less than 10 but that's getting hard to find.
    Apr 23, 2015. 11:58 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Aiming My Sights On A Beaten-Down STAG Industrial [View article]
    A couple of questions: 1. Do you have any estimates of AFFO per share on a go forward basis? 2. While FFO generally works for REITs because properties don't lose value over time and therefore the depreciation deduction used to calculate GAAP income is misleading, it is unclear to me how this applies to Class B industrial properties? Are we confident that these properties will have increasing value over time? More specifically, what happens at the end of the lease?
    Apr 23, 2015. 03:33 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • U.S. Oil Production Has Started Its Decline [View article]
    A good strategy. You should also take a look at private equity managers like Blackstone (BX), KKR, Fortress (FIG) and Carlyle as long as you are willing to deal with the LP tax issues.
    Apr 23, 2015. 12:00 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • U.S. Oil Production Has Started Its Decline [View article]
    This is exactly how markets work but with a lag. I guess what my article says is that we are getting to the end of the lag and fundamental forces are taking hold to clear the market.
    Apr 22, 2015. 11:57 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • U.S. Oil Production Has Started Its Decline [View article]
    I am not sure I agree on the currency issue. I think that the dollar may dip when it becomes absolutely clear the Fed will not raise rates in June and we may have another dip if they take a pass in September but I still think we are in a general upward trend against the Euro and the Loonie - I don't follow others as closely.
    The security situation is getting dicey - it looks like the Middle East may be heading into its own version of the infamous 30 Years War.
    Apr 22, 2015. 11:56 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Firsthand Technology Value Fund: Misunderstood And Oversold [View article]
    I don't think that the Second Market and Share Post prices are readily available although I think one could register, ask about buying shares and probably get a quote. Share Post runs a mutual fund and has to price its constituents so that might give one a handle on prices and I am sure that the operators of SVVC would be able to get up to date Second Market and Share Post prices for the securities they hold.
    Apr 22, 2015. 06:52 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • U.S. Oil Production Has Started Its Decline [View article]
    I think that the decline will be slow and there may even be weeks of a temporary reversal but it will probably accelerate as we get later in the year. At some point, pricing strength will emerge and the fall off in drilling will level out. I lean toward the view that, in 2016 or 2017, we will level off at a price point of between $65-85 a barrel with 7-8 million barrels a day of US production. When I say "level off", I mean that there will be some fluctuation around the mean but we will get some stability.
    Apr 22, 2015. 06:48 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Clean Energy Fuels Should Make It Through The Valley Of Death [View article]
    They have one big debt maturity to hurdle over but I am increasingly of the opinion that they will make it over the bar.
    Apr 22, 2015. 02:06 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • New Rule: With Share Repurchases Resuming, Buy American Capital Below $15.37 [View article]
    It is true that it has been in a rut since 2013 but I think it has built up some value setting the stage for an upward trajectory.
    Apr 22, 2015. 02:05 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Interest Rates Will Stay Low [View article]
    Barrons had an editorial arguing that low rates tend to slow the economy because they induce those saving for retirement to save more and spend less because they anticipate a lower return on their retirement assets and thus have to have more assets to have a given level of retirement income (let's call this the Barron's phenomenon) (I had a friend who calculated that he had to have $72 million saved to produce his target retirement income after tax at current money market rates).
    So to net this out we have the following:
    1. Lower rates stimulate the economy by 1. reducing the interest expense of borrowers and providing them with more money to spend, 2. the wealth effect (asset prices go up making people feel wealthier), 3. lowering the life cycle cost of financed assets (homes and cars) leading more people to purchase these things, 4. reduce the "hurdle" level for Capex thereby leading to more business investment, and 5. depreciating the currency thereby creating inflation and encouraging exports and tourism.
    On the other hand,
    2. Lower rates slow down the economy by 1. reducing the interest income of lenders (bank depositors, holders of money market funds) giving them less money to spend, 2. the Barron's phenomenon, and 3 possibly other effects.
    Right now, I think that the exchange rate impact dominates other factors but it is an interesting debate that should be worth further study.
    Apr 18, 2015. 03:51 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Interest Rates Will Stay Low [View article]
    Please let me know the basis for the statement that the dollar has "barely budged" - in the past few years we have moved up sharply against the Euro, the yen, the loonies, the pound ..... virtually everything except the Chinese currency. Any tightening now will intensify this trend. We are very closely integrated with Canada and a dollar has gone from .95 to 1.25 loonies in a few years - this has to have a big impact. if the dollar were to go much higher, the Chinese might decide to drive their currency down against the dollar. I just don't think there is much room to maneuver right now.
    Apr 17, 2015. 04:21 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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