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Philip Mause

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  • The Problem Of The Strong Dollar: Investment Implications [View article]
    Of course this has been a big plus for Yum Brands (YUM) which is a good play on China. There were some other surprises on the trip - no General Tso's Chicken anywhere in China!! I wondered out loud whether he was a Nationalist Chinese General and they stopped making his chicken for political reasons but that is apparently not the explanation. A real mystery. And the Colonel keeps growing in China - very, very popular.
    May 21 01:14 PM | 0 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bull Market Speed Bump #1: All News Is Good News (Confirmation Bias) [View article]
    It's tough to be in cash for a long time now because you forego dividend yields. I think that the market will move up gradually staying at dividend yields between 1.8 and 2.2 percent and gaining as dividends increase. A big event may be the resumption of large scale dividends by the big banks. I really have no idea when it will happen but I think it is virtually inevitable that we will see it sometime in the next 3 years.
    May 21 01:09 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Bull Market Speed Bump #1: All News Is Good News (Confirmation Bias) [View article]
    Currencies are "strong" or "weak" only in relation to other currencies. The dollar is the last man standing in a ruinous bar room brawl which has rendered everyone else dead or unconscious (just like the United States at the end of WW2). Unfortunately, in this case, I am in the camp that believes that an overstrong dollar is an absolute disaster for certain important sectors of our economy. This is another reason we are not likely to see higher interest rates for a very long time.
    May 21 01:06 PM | 0 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bull Market Speed Bump #1: All News Is Good News (Confirmation Bias) [View article]
    Thank you. I really think that most "pundits" have prepackaged explanations available each day to use so that they can explain "why the market went up" or "why the market went down" with equal facility. I really don't think investors should give this stuff much weight.
    May 21 01:04 PM | 0 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bull Market Speed Bump #1: All News Is Good News (Confirmation Bias) [View article]
    I am sorry if I an scaring people away. The last paragraph could not be reasonably interpreted that way. I do think that there is a danger of euphoria and a terrible potential problem in confirmation bias and investors should be aware of it. Right now, I tend to agree that dividend yields will slowly drive the market up although there will be fits and starts as the market gets ahead of itself periodically.
    May 21 01:02 PM | 0 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bull Market Speed Bump #1: All News Is Good News (Confirmation Bias) [View article]
    I think that the best strategy is to look at stock purchases as if you were buying the business and to buy only when you would be happy owning the business at that price. Of course, as the market becomes more expensive, there will be fewer opportunities that are priced at attractive levels.
    May 21 01:00 PM | 0 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Clean Energy Fuels: The Important CNG/LNG Distinction And What It Means For Investors [View article]
    The CNG business is definitely established, growing and is here to stay. The LNG business may be more a matter of time and I guess one risk factor is whether CLNE has the balance sheet strength to wait it out if it takes a lot longer than predicted.
    May 21 12:57 PM | 0 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Clean Energy Fuels: The Important CNG/LNG Distinction And What It Means For Investors [View article]
    People are trying a variety of things on trains. Some ships are beginning to use methanol. One thing I think I can be confident that we will not see soon is an all electric airplane, given the battery weight problems. But who knows? It is all a matter of where the technology and the relative fuel prices go.
    May 21 12:56 PM | 0 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Clean Energy Fuels: The Important CNG/LNG Distinction And What It Means For Investors [View article]
    These are all risk factors - the question is always whether they are accurately priced in, whether the market has been giving them too much weight, or whether they are inadequately reflected in CLNE's market cap. Given the upside, I think that the risk reward on this one is reasonably good.
    May 21 12:54 PM | 0 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Clean Energy Fuels: The Important CNG/LNG Distinction And What It Means For Investors [View article]
    I tend to agree. It will not be that easy for others to ramp up in the LNG business.
    May 21 12:52 PM | 0 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Clean Energy Fuels: The Important CNG/LNG Distinction And What It Means For Investors [View article]
    The comparison is usually made on a per btu equivalent basis as I assume that the engines have comparable efficiency. The metric for natural gas is gallons of diesel equivalent or gallons of gasoline equivalent. One mcf of natural gas has around 1 million btus and is equivalent to 8 gallons of gasoline or 7 gallons of diesel. If natural gas is priced at the well head at $4 per mcf, then this price is 50 cents a gallon on a gasoline gallon equivalent basis. There are all sorts of other distribution costs and natural gas has been generally priced at between $2.00 and $2.50 on a gasoline or diesel gallon equivalent basis. I believe that the engines may have somewhat less maintenance but that there are higher insurance costs - at least for LNG engines. And there is a higher initial cost - especially for LNG engines. At current price levels, it looks like a trucker would recover the higher first cost in 12-18 months due to reduced operating costs. These numbers vary around the country.
    May 21 12:51 PM | 0 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • American Capital Is Still A Very Attractive Investment [View article]
    Good point re: dividends. We have a kind of "chicken egg" problem with ACAS dividends in that ACAS wants to use its cash to buy back stock rather than pay dividends as look as the price is below NAV but one of the things that might increase the stock price to NAV would be the resumption of dividends. One solution for investors is to hold ACAS in a taxable account and hold dividend paying BDCs in IRAs and other tax free accounts.
    May 19 12:31 PM | 0 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • American Capital Is Still A Very Attractive Investment [View article]
    I think that that strategy makes sense. There are some other equity oriented BDCs - the pre-IPO group (GSVC, SVVC, KIPO) - and some others. ACAS seems to be following a very eclectic strategy which may work out well with limited leverage. In this sector, I look very long and hard at the price I am paying and with ACAS that continues to be a major factor convincing me to be long. Almost any of the BDCs can be a good or bad investment depending on the price you pay for the stock.
    May 18 11:05 AM | 0 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Clean Energy Systems: Nearing The Point Of Inflection? [View article]
    What was he driving before he got the Volt? My guess would be that it wasn't a Prius - unless he was travellng 3000 miles each month. In any case, it sounds like he was putting a lot of miles on the car and it is the drivers who are racking up big mileage each month who will find it more economically attractive to switch to vehicles which are more fuel efficient. As I have often said, these vehicles don't necessarily have to appeal to the "national average" driver. They will do fine if they find 5 or 10% of the market. Of course, the impact on national fuel consumption is enhanced if the cars which travel the most are the ones to switch.
    May 18 11:01 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • American Capital Is Still A Very Attractive Investment [View article]
    Their policy right now is to use cash for share repurchases as long as the stock trades below NAV by a significant amount. I am not sure exactly how this plays out. One scenario would be for the discount to close in the market and dividends to be resumed at that point. I guess there is also the question of whether they would resume RIC status as their tax loss carry forward is exhausted.
    May 16 01:10 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
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