Why Deflation Is Bad And Inflation Is Good: Monetary Policy 101 [View article]
A couple of points. Deflation tends to make existing debt (denominated in nominal dollars) unsustainable and to increase defaults leading to a negative wealth effect and financial failures. In addition, wages are "sticky" on the downside and so employers tend to lay off some workers rather than reduce wages across the board which causes more unemployment. These trends rapidly produce a self-reinforcing downward spiral which can get out of control and, in an extreme case, return the entire economy to a barter mode which is very inefficient.
Desperately Seeking Yield Through Equities Redux: Part 10 - The Issue Of Context [View article]
One of the ways I look at it is this: I try to buy either 1. a great company at a reasonable price, or 2. a good company at a cheap price, or 3. a problematic company at a very, very cheap price. Some of my best investments have been in the third category where the stock was priced so low that, if it was able to survive, an investor was virtually guaranteed a quick double, triple or even more on his initial investment - a couple of examples - MCGC (a problematic BDC) at 85 cents a share in 2009, ACAS (having problems at the time) at under $2 a share in 2009, MMAB at 65 cents a share recently. If any of these had been priced a lot higher I wouldn't have touched them, but at those very very low prices they turned out to be goldmines.
Clean Energy Systems: Nearing The Point Of Inflection? [View article]
I tend to agree. There will be lots of battles at the local and EPA level but I do not see much chance that fracking will be totally banned. I think that the administration is beginning to embrace natural gas as an important "bridge" to the future and that will lead to reasonable policies at the federal level. And as you point out, in many states a fracking ban is probably less likely than the imposition of a requirement that all animals wear clothes.
Clean Energy Systems: Nearing The Point Of Inflection? [View article]
The transcript and linked article provide more details in this regard. I am not ah engineer and so I am hesitant to evaluate exactly where we are on the widespread introduction of these vehicles, but what I read supports your conclusions.
Clean Energy Systems: Nearing The Point Of Inflection? [View article]
The diesel price will be based on the World oil price and, as we know, anything can happen but the mere conversion of several thousand trucks in the United States to LNG is not going to have much effect on the World oil price.
Clean Energy Systems: Nearing The Point Of Inflection? [View article]
Another way to look at it is that a carrier may decide to convert PART of his fleet to LNG to hedge his bets against a huge run up in diesel prices which would put him at a competitive disadvantage. CLNE does not have to capture the entire market to become very profitable.
Desperately Seeking Yield Through Equities Redux: Part 10 - The Issue Of Context [View article]
I am not sure I understand the quote you provided - is the idea that even though stocks are priced at high levels, cash is unattractive??
As to my statement, I think I could take virtually any equity and attach two prices to it - one of which would be unattractive and one of which would be attractive. For very, very strong growing companies, if the price is high enough, it becomes unattractive (we saw that in the 2000 Crash). For companies headed into bankruptcy, a low price (1 cent per share) is a kind of option on the survival of the company and is attractive for even most troubled companies (although there may be some exceptions where the probability of an equity wipe out is so high that even a penny a share is too much to pay).
Interesting. They seem to be very "New York" oriented - maybe the next project will be funding "Taxi Driver 2" with De Niro and Foster updating us on what happened to Travis Bickel and Iris.
No-Growth Apple Is Worth $600 Per Share [View article]
I think this is a good point. What we really may be doing is evaluating an array of future probabilities with a net result of an "expected" outcome of no growth (the sum of all outcomes weighted by probability is no growth). But that would lead to a different valuation. The big tech, cash rich companies like MSFT, CSCO and AAPL are getting harder and harder to figure out.
I have NCT and RAS and they look good. I like SFI but have not picked any up yet. I was not aware of BGCP but will check it out. Lately MMAB has been on fire and it may be that a lot of the easy money has already been made but I am going to monitor the conference call this evening.
It Can Happen Here: The Confiscation Scheme Planned For U.S. And U.K. Depositors [View article]
Reviewing this article and the comments, I think investors have to ask themselves one question - Is this the kind of sentiment regularly seen at market tops? We are still building a "wall of worry."
It Can Happen Here: The Confiscation Scheme Planned For U.S. And U.K. Depositors [View article]
A very good point. A number of Fed watchers now think that the Fed will exit QE by 1. banning soft toilet paper, 2. introducing "soft" currency, and 3. allow the market to work in reducing the money supply as the soft currency is substituted for soft toilet paper. I am really glad that we don't live in a "hard" currency country. Remember the Native Americans used clam shells; I can't imagine how their central bank would manage a QE exit. It wouldn't be pretty.
Clean Energy Systems: Nearing The Point Of Inflection? [View article]
Clean Energy Systems: Nearing The Point Of Inflection? [View article]
Why Deflation Is Bad And Inflation Is Good: Monetary Policy 101 [View article]
Desperately Seeking Yield Through Equities Redux: Part 10 - The Issue Of Context [View article]
Clean Energy Systems: Nearing The Point Of Inflection? [View article]
Clean Energy Systems: Nearing The Point Of Inflection? [View article]
Clean Energy Systems: Nearing The Point Of Inflection? [View article]
Clean Energy Systems: Nearing The Point Of Inflection? [View article]
Desperately Seeking Yield Through Equities Redux: Part 10 - The Issue Of Context [View article]
As to my statement, I think I could take virtually any equity and attach two prices to it - one of which would be unattractive and one of which would be attractive. For very, very strong growing companies, if the price is high enough, it becomes unattractive (we saw that in the 2000 Crash). For companies headed into bankruptcy, a low price (1 cent per share) is a kind of option on the survival of the company and is attractive for even most troubled companies (although there may be some exceptions where the probability of an equity wipe out is so high that even a penny a share is too much to pay).
BDC Review Redux IV: 5 Unusual BDC Opportunities [View article]
Desperately Seeking Yield Through Equities Redux: Part 1 - BDCs [View article]
No-Growth Apple Is Worth $600 Per Share [View article]
BRT Realty Trust Is Still Cheap [View article]
It Can Happen Here: The Confiscation Scheme Planned For U.S. And U.K. Depositors [View article]
It Can Happen Here: The Confiscation Scheme Planned For U.S. And U.K. Depositors [View article]