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Philip Saglimbeni

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  • Microsoft: Where's Your Game At? [View article]
    Bozly9,

    I agree with you for the most part and I was impressed by the media connectivity and features the Xbox One is slated to have. My only concern, and I am an Xbox fan, is that the majority of the people that traditionally buy game consoles at launch are those looking to buy/play new games and the majority of 'gamers' were greatly disappointed by Microsoft's unveil. The stats are staggering, IGN's latest poll shows 75% were disappointed, here's a link to it:

    http://go.ign.com/ZfKTVP

    The most popular poll result was that the unveil focused too much on other things besides games. However, you raise an interesting point in that the new console has the ability appeal to an entirely different kind of consumer now but my main concern/question is 'will this new type of consumer buy the console, especially at an expensive price, just for some admittedly cool features like Skype connectivity and Kinect enabled TV controls?' I'd bet no but I could easily be wrong. Thanks for the comment and for the constructive criticism.

    Phil
    May 23 08:45 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Boston Beer: Almost Time To Take A Sip [View article]
    Yes, I agree. I am watching the price action closely, I think I may get a chance to purchase SAM at the levels I wanted soon, especially if the general market keeps pulling back. I will keep you posted as to what I do.

    Phil
    May 22 05:47 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Microsoft (MSFT) unveils the Xbox One, a 3rd-gen console it pitches as "the ultimate all-in-one entertainment system. The device has a rectangular, set-top box-like shape, a slightly bigger controller. a revamped Xbox Live UI, improved app/game loading and switching times, and fresh voice/gesture controls. AMD is widely believed to provide an integrated CPU/GPU for the system. (live blog) (previous[View news story]
    hahaha that is exactly what I was thinking, I half expected to find an RCA label on the side of it and a VHS pop out
    May 21 02:07 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Boston Beer: Almost Time To Take A Sip [View article]
    LarryMelman,

    Thanks for writing. You're absolutely right, SAM did not do much in the ten years following its IPO, basically trading flat. It is always a little tricky to go by the 2009-lows since the sudden volatility brought many stocks down to levels that they wouldn't otherwise have seen. However, you bring up a very good point, the stock has basically tripled in the last three years!

    The unfortunate part is that I do not have a conclusive answer as I can only go back 10 years on revenue/EPS data right now so I can not compare the more recent growth rates of the company to the ones much closer to the IPO, which would allow me to see changing trends. However, it could have been a poorly priced IPO and was simply too expensive at the time of the initial offering (good thing you kept distance). I say this because ever since it bottomed a few years after the IPO the stock has traded very well, trending up for the most part ever since.

    I think SAM's success has come from their ability to expand the popularity of their signature Sam Adams brand to numerous labels and markets: they have many labels that only come out in certain seasons, various limited editions runs and they seem to be always introducing new Sam Adams spin-offs. They are a leader in handcrafted brews and the popularity of that market seems to be growing, as is the competition. They are also growing their hard cider/tea brands successfully, although I would really like to see specific numbers from the company in this regard. The growth is backed up by the company's rather robust revenue/EPS growth rates over the last decade.

    I've had a few Sam Adams here and there and I find them enjoyable but definitely not my favorite. I would think with all of the different labels they now have, there's probably a few I'd like better than the original. Sorry for the long response but thanks for reading and for the question.

    Phil
    May 18 07:43 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Boston Beer: Almost Time To Take A Sip [View article]
    Microcap,

    I appreciate your insight, and I agree that SAM needs to clear support otherwise it will most likely back off. I don't short stocks at all but I'm curious to see how this one plays out, especially since SAM has rallied post-earnings in a very cooperative market.

    Phil
    May 18 01:16 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Boston Beer: Almost Time To Take A Sip [View article]
    Yea me too, I considered it a lot at the $100 level and didn't pull the trigger, for various reasons. I think I said in another article that I really liked your buy of SAM on weakness, it was at the top of the price range that I wanted to pay but it has worked out well for you so far. Congrats on the good entry. I will wait on it, maybe gain exposure through calls, although sometimes it is best to just initiate and wait for pullbacks to add, as you are doing.

    Phil
    May 16 02:16 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Next Gen Game Consoles: Winners And Losers [View article]
    Insightful article Mark, thanks. I agree that Nintendo's WiiU is not indicative of anything regarding Sony and Microsoft's next consoles, it's a totally different type of consumer. Even management at Nintendo has somewhat acknowledged that they dropped the ball with the system's launch release.

    After reading all of the rumors around Microsoft's next console, and the reactions to them (quite funny most of them), it seems as if Microsoft has to do a lot to impress. Sony has successfully catered to the traditional gamers (the ones who support the systems throughout the console generation) with their February presentation and with everything that management has said since. While Microsoft has had serious blunders on their side (most notably the rants and subsequent firing of a development head about the console having to remain always online and the supposed raising of monthly Xbox Live fees). With Microsoft having dominated the last gen think they could very well end up losing this one to Sony. Thanks for the read, always like to hear about the upcoming console generation.

    Phil
    May 15 08:37 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Boston Beer: Almost Time To Take A Sip [View article]
    1GreatCFA,

    Thanks for the comment. The insider selling has been pervasive the last few months, particularly from founder/chairman James Koch in April and President/CEO Martin Roper in March, here's a link to all insider transactions from Nasdaq.com for the last six months:

    http://bit.ly/YTS5qt

    I do not like to see such extended selling from management, it is definitely not confidence-inspiring. However, from looking at the transactions list, with regard to CEO Roper it looks as if they were almost all option grants exercised and sold immediately. I hope that helps a bit and once again, thanks for writing,

    Phil
    May 14 03:41 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Boston Beer: Almost Time To Take A Sip [View article]
    Thanks Microcap, I appreciate the feedback. I've watched this one take off without me the last few months and I was tempted to pull the trigger and initiate but the technicals are still bearish near-term, the market is just not cooperating right now. I think management will be able to successfully expand the company's brands in the long run and I think that is how investors should consider SAM, as a long-term story first and foremost. Short-term there are some problems and the valuation is just not there yet for me. Plus, as you say, I always like to see confirmation of an uptrend take place before I step in, 50-day MA is key in that regard. Thanks again for the feedback, I will post if/when I enter, best of luck!

    Phil
    May 14 03:09 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Content-Creation And Payments: 2 Growth Trends Driving My Portfolio Forward [View article]
    The databases will no doubt serve you well, some very impressive valuation metrics that I've never seen anywhere else. How goes Discovery Comm. and some of the media stocks in the database, have you started to include them?
    May 10 05:10 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Content-Creation And Payments: 2 Growth Trends Driving My Portfolio Forward [View article]
    I struggle with it too, there are probably 20 or so stocks I really like now but that I don't own, for various reasons. Keeping my portfolio tight is a great way for me to minimize how much information I have to monitor on a daily basis, from news to earnings/conference calls, and it allows me to know a lot about all of the companies I own. Obviously the downside it that I miss nice moves in other stocks and sometimes it's can be frustrating. It's definitely a trade-off but I've done well with the approach far so hopefully it can continue.
    May 10 02:36 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Content-Creation And Payments: 2 Growth Trends Driving My Portfolio Forward [View article]
    Thanks James,

    I'm in pretty much the same boat as you with MA, I wish I had invested during the IPO, I got in much later. There aren't too many stocks that have performed as well in the last 7 years. eBay has been acting well since dropping after what I thought were solid earnings, but I'm curious to see management's words on the probable internet tax bill. Visa has impressed me, up almost twice as much as MA in the last year.

    On the content side, there are a couple of new ones that keep catching my eye: AMCX as you know, it's intriguing to me as long as they keep up with the quality content (which is asking a lot) and it's probably a buyout candidate as well and Scripps is always on my radar.

    I'm about half way through your VELT article, and it's a hard one to figure out, I'm curious to see the results next week. I also like TRIP and more specifically Google in kind of the same space, they just seem to be doing everything right lately. By the way, $VFC is one that has bothered me the last few months since I wrote about it and did nothing haha, but there are only so many stocks we can own at one time. Thanks for writing,

    Phil
    May 10 02:15 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Michael Kors: Something Beautiful You Can Truly Own [View article]
    Dallas,

    Another nice article, $KORS I have followed and even traded a little bit but I've often considered owning it long-term. As you say, great brand strength and momentum with large scale growth opportunities. I think $COH and $FOSL results bode well for $KORS earnings release next month. Considering the growth is estimated above 30% for revs and EPS for the next two years and the stock is trading at only 23 forward P/E, the risk-reward looks nice here.

    Phil
    May 8 09:33 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Visa Or MasterCard? My Money's On Visa [View article]
    Thanks Mark, I wrote an article on MasterCard and Visa in February. I recommended both, however, I did feel that $MA was the better investment at the time based on valuation and future growth. The more recent developments with regard to earnings and guidance for both and Visa's significant out-performance this year so far have made me think I might have been wrong in my assessment. I do feel that both will do well but momentum is definitely on Visa's side now.

    Phil
    May 7 10:18 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Time To Max Out Those Credit Cards: Why I'm Buying Visa, MasterCard, And Discover [View article]
    Wow, congrats on the level-headedness and the gains! I entered both in late 2009 and have been adding along the way, however I wish I was in the market around MA's IPO, truly one of the best performers of the last decade. I agree, big gains to come still for both.
    May 7 10:12 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
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