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Philip Trinder  

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  • Higher Maintenance Costs Could Hurt Pipeline Dividend Growth [View article]
    Brian or Valuentum Team,

    Thank you for the response and the correction to your article. I too have been monitoring the recent offshore oil sheen near Goleta Beach, here's a link to a local news station website with updates: http://tinyurl.com/qyp...

    Based on your analysis of the location of PAA's Line 901, how likely do you think it is that Line 901 could be the source of the Goleta Beach oil sheen?

    Once they do a fingerprinting analysis on the oil near Goleta Beach we'll have a better idea but it does seem like the Goleta Beach oil sheen appeared to be coming from an area near an offshore production platform. Alternatively it could be possible that part of the Line 901 spill from back on May 19 drifted out into the Pacific unnoticed and is now drifting back in two months later, but that seems somewhat unlikely to me.

    Here's a link to the fingerprinting analysis and maps from the Line 901 spill: http://tinyurl.com/qec...

    I am all for better maintenance methods on pipelines because I hate leaks, ruptures, accidents, spills, etc. and the risk of that happening is spread over every square inch of every mile of the hundreds of thousands of miles of pipelines running throughout the U.S. PAA feels the same way and continually works to improve its operations as explained here: http://tinyurl.com/njy...

    Best Regards,
    Phil
    Jul 31, 2015. 01:41 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Higher Maintenance Costs Could Hurt Pipeline Dividend Growth [View article]
    Brian,

    You make this statement:

    "The firm has had two pipeline leaks or bursts since May, one in Southwest Illinois and one near Santa Barbara, California, which have resulted in an estimated total of ~6,600 barrels of crude oil being spilt."

    Can you provide any sources for your total spill estimate of ~6,600 barrels?

    The data I can find shows the combined total for both spills is actually more in the ~2,500 barrel area, which means that your number is off by around 4,100 barrels which is a margin of error of more than 160%.

    Given the material nature of that difference links to the sources of your info would be appreciated, or if you find the same data as I have then perhaps you could correct your error.

    Best Regards,
    Phil
    Jul 30, 2015. 05:58 PM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Unique MLP Asset With Double-Digit Yield Has Strong Shareholder Protections [View article]
    Agreed and I wasn't trying to imply anything about CELP, I was more talking generally about the Subordinated Unit structure that is found in LP IPOs.

    Although looking specifically at CELP's 1Q15 results, I'd keep a close eye on their Distribution Coverage Ratio ("DCR") over time for all of their Common and Subordinated Units:

    "A coverage ratio of 0.91x compared to Q4 2014 coverage ratio of 0.89x."

    So for 1Q15 they were at 0.91x, which is less than 1.0x so a bit of a red flag, if their DCR trends downwards that will be cause for concern but I guess that is part of the reason the current yield is around 11.6%.

    Best Regards,
    Phil
    Jul 24, 2015. 04:19 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Unique MLP Asset With Double-Digit Yield Has Strong Shareholder Protections [View article]
    Anuj,

    Understood and the larger more established MLPs also had the Subordinated Unit structures back when they first came public. The Sub Unit structuring technique is intended to give investors in "new LP IPOs" some additional comfort that their Common Unit Distributions will be paid. And I agree that it does provide that cushion for the Common Unitholders in recent IPOs but IF an MLP cuts off the distributions to its Subordinated Units that may be a good reason to go ahead and exit the position, just because suspending Sub Unit distributions is never a good sign about the overall business.

    Best Regards,
    Phil
    Jul 24, 2015. 03:15 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Unique MLP Asset With Double-Digit Yield Has Strong Shareholder Protections [View article]
    Anuj,

    The Subordinated Unit structure is very typical for all LP IPOs, have you compared the CELP Subordinated Unit language / structure to other recent LP IPOs and found that there is something materially different in CELP's structure?

    Most Recent LP IPOs / IPO Pricing Date:

    CNXC 6/30/15
    GPP 6/25/15
    PTXP 6/3/15
    EVA 4/28/15
    CPPL 2/5/15
    RMP 12/16/14
    NAP 11/12/14
    AM 11/4/14
    SHLX 10/28/14
    DM 10/14/14
    USDP 10/8/14
    JPEP 10/1/14
    CNNX 9/24/14
    HMLP 8/6/14
    VTTI 7/31/14
    RIGP 7/30/14
    WLKP 7/29/14

    As is typical for LP IPOs, all of the IPOs listed above have some type of Subordinated Unit structure. There is some variability in how much is subordinated and for how long i.e. the 50% you mentioned for CELP compared to only 40% being Subordinated Units for RIGP and the subordinated periods tend to vary from 3 to 5 years.

    Best Regards,
    Phil
    Jul 22, 2015. 12:31 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Emerge Energy - More Reasons Why Its Crash Is A Buying Opportunity [View article]
    Harsh,

    At what price would you actually start a position in EMES?

    How much do you expect the next distribution to decrease from the $1.00 they paid for 1Q15?

    Here is the recent distribution history:

    1Q14 - $1.13
    2Q14 - $1.17
    3Q14 - $1.38
    4Q14 - $1.41
    1Q15 - $1.00
    2Q15 - ?

    Do you think the next distribution might be around $0.66?

    Best Regards,
    Phil
    Jul 18, 2015. 05:47 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Oneok Partners: 9.6% Yield Too Good To Be True? [View article]
    Matthew,

    Thanks for the response. Right, hence I think these concepts might have warranted some discussion in the "Discussion of risk" section in the article.

    Best Regards,
    Phil
    Jul 10, 2015. 12:32 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Oneok Partners: 9.6% Yield Too Good To Be True? [View article]
    Matthew,

    With the hedging that they had in place they only managed a 0.6x distribution coverage ratio for 1Q15, do you have any estimate of how much lower their coverage ratio would have been without their hedging?

    What do you expect their coverage ratio to be for 2Q15 (clearly with the benefit of the hedges that they had in place over the quarter)?

    Best Regards,
    Phil
    Jul 9, 2015. 04:59 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Oneok Partners: 9.6% Yield Too Good To Be True? [View article]
    Casey,

    Part of the reason that OKS is trading at a higher yield than other midstream MLPs is the comparatively large amount of commodity price risk and NGL price differential risk that they take on as part of their business (as opposed to fee only business).

    Please see page 30 of the Credit Suisse 3rd Annual MLP Conference Presentation found here: http://bit.ly/1LUBZTy

    OKS was only 66% Fee based Margin for full year 2014 and the reason that page 30 is showing they are estimating 75% for 2015 is because the current low commodity price environment has reduced the amount of commodity price and differential dependent margin they can generate this year.

    Out of the investment grade rated publicly traded LPs, OKS is trading at the highest yield because of that large amount of risk in their cash flow stream.

    OKS only managed a Distribution Coverage Ratio of 0.6x for 1Q15, see last page here: http://bit.ly/18Y6fJ1~/media/ONEOKPartners/...

    So on the quarterly conference call that was why management was expecting to show improvement in their coverage ratio for the rest of the year since 0.6x coverage is very bad. On page 42 of the presentation mentioned above they estimate a full year 2015 coverage ratio of 0.87x to 0.97x, so it will be very interesting to see how they actually did during 2Q15. I think the market is correctly concerned about how their 2Q15 results will look.

    Best Regards,
    Phil
    Jul 9, 2015. 04:14 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 3 Good Reasons To Sell BP Prudhoe Bay Royalty Trust [View article]
    Always Dubious,

    Thanks and no, I have no in at BP. I've been posting my model estimates on my website and been continuing to try and improve its accuracy since I pulled together a model back in January of 2014.

    Here's my post from earlier today: http://bit.ly/1KHNbU4

    All BPT related posts: http://bit.ly/1KHNcro

    I took a flyer on some BPT Call Options so it will be interesting to see if the large distribution increase quarter over quarter leads to some yield hunting buying interest (and maybe a little short covering), guess we'll see how it trades as the news gets absorbed by the market.

    Best Regards,
    Phil
    Jul 6, 2015. 04:42 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 3 Good Reasons To Sell BP Prudhoe Bay Royalty Trust [View article]
    BPT just announced a distribution of $1.4723774.

    Production was 86,481 (I had estimated 87,250).
    Jul 6, 2015. 04:19 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 3 Good Reasons To Sell BP Prudhoe Bay Royalty Trust [View article]
    Pablomike,

    Yes, we might as well, for all the accuracy bragging rights about BPT at SA. ;-)

    Here's the current list:

    Trinder $1.4655
    Always Dubious: $1.35
    Pablomike: $1.28

    Best Regards,
    Phil
    Jul 6, 2015. 03:33 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 3 Good Reasons To Sell BP Prudhoe Bay Royalty Trust [View article]
    Marilyn,

    My estimate is $1.4655. I think my main source of margin of error will come from the actual royalty production versus my estimate.

    If anyone else has an estimate let's get them posted!

    Best Regards,
    Phil
    Jul 6, 2015. 03:05 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • This High-Dividend Stock Yields 8.5% Plus, Is Beating The Market And May Get Bought Out In 2015 [View article]
    DDS,

    Your takeover calculation for OCIR LP Units is missing some materially important details.

    1. The estimated $128 million of EBITDA is for OCI Wyoming, LP which is only 51% owned by OCIR. You can see the ownership spit in the org chart from the IPO Prospectus here: http://1.usa.gov/1JHl3jZ

    2. The Enterprise Value for OCIR then needs to be adjusted down by the net debt at OCIR which was $108.6 million as of March 31. 10-Q: http://1.usa.gov/1JHl2fG

    3. The equity value for the OCIR LP units also needs to take into account that the GP position is worth more than the LP units so the GP equity value needs to be estimated and subtracted before trying to back into an effective price per LP unit.

    Based on those key changes and an assumed 20 times multiple for the GP interest the estimated "Potential Buyout Price / Unit" is more in the $23.62 to $24.62 range instead of the $57.57 to $59.57 range that you calculated.

    Best Regards,
    Phil
    Jul 5, 2015. 01:08 PM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • New IRS Rules Could Eliminate SunCoke's MLP Status [View article]
    All,

    Suncoke Energy just released a statement on Proposed New IRS Regulations and Submit Comment Letter: http://bit.ly/1ekWxYH

    Best Regards,
    Phil
    Jun 16, 2015. 02:05 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
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