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  • BP Prudhoe Bay Royalty Trust: Annual Report Indicates Termination And Shares Overvaluation [View article]
    Updated Standings:

    malevy: $1.20
    Reid D. Notes: $1.05 (from article, pending possible update)
    Cunningham: $1.00 - $1.05
    Pablomike: $1.02
    Yogi6262: $1.02 (from earlier comment, pending possible update)
    Trinder: $0.9553
    Heller: $0.85 ($0.85 to $1.05)

    Best Regards,
    Phil
    Apr 2, 2015. 02:57 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • BP Prudhoe Bay Royalty Trust: Annual Report Indicates Termination And Shares Overvaluation [View article]
    malevy,

    So if sanctions against Iran end up getting reduced, it seems like that will allow Iran to be able to sell more oil on the international market. This outcome would increase the global supply of oil and seems like it would add to the perceived oil glut (unless there is a large enough increase in demand).

    So are you suggesting that any agreement / resolution / improvement in relations with Iran will provide further downwards pressure on global oil prices?

    Best Regards,
    Phil
    Apr 2, 2015. 02:53 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • BP Prudhoe Bay Royalty Trust: Annual Report Indicates Termination And Shares Overvaluation [View article]
    Pablomike,

    Ah OK, you can find the historical production data for oil and condensate on page 14 in the "Historical Production" section. The columns for "Net to 1989 Working Interests" are the numbers that matter for the Trust. The numbers shown are the average daily production over the entire year, so keep in mind that the production on a quarterly basis varies substantially because they typically do maintenance work on the fields in the summer months.

    BPT does not directly have anything to do with any of the natural gas that will ever be produced in the Prudhoe Bay fields because the Royalty Interest conveyed to BPT is only for Oil and Condensate and does not include the Natural Gas in the field (the "gas cap"). Indirectly there was an impact based on the changing allocation for the Condensate allocated to the gas cap vs the oil rim participating area (explained in the January 8-K and also on page 16 of the 10-K). The recently changed allocation was a benefit to BPT because it allocated more Condensate to the oil rim instead of the gas cap.

    To Joshua's comment below, I also think it is unlikely that BPT will need to take a litigation reserve since the allocation has been updated and is now more in favor of BPT unitholders (but anything is possible even if highly improbable). The fact that they missed the allocation change for 2 quarters of production doesn't really amount to much change in the time value of the cash BPT unitholders received.

    Best Regards,
    Phil
    Apr 2, 2015. 02:48 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • BP Prudhoe Bay Royalty Trust: Annual Report Indicates Termination And Shares Overvaluation [View article]
    Gentlemen, actually if you word search the most recent BPT 10-K you will find that the word "condensate" appears in it 53 times. The first mention of condensate is in the explanation of the Trust Property on page 2 (all caps added for emphasis).

    "The Royalty Interest entitles the Trust to a royalty on 16.4246% of the lesser of (i) the first 90,000 barrels1of the average actual daily net production of crude oil and CONDENSATE per quarter from the working interest of BP Alaska as of February 28, 1989 in the Prudhoe Bay oil field located on the North Slope in Alaska or (ii) the average actual daily net production of crude oil and CONDENSATE per quarter from that working interest."

    10-K: http://1.usa.gov/1CWwzVa

    Press "CTRL" and "F" keys at the same time to word search the entire document (if you are using a Mac then press "command" and "F" keys at the same time).

    On my model I am either really crazy or really good, we'll see. My default assumption is always that I am really crazy and thus always need to improve any model I create.

    Updated Standings:

    malevy: $1.20
    Reid D. Notes: $1.05 (from article, pending possible update)
    Cunningham: $1.00 - $1.05
    Pablomike: $1.02
    Trinder: $0.9553

    Best Regards,
    Phil
    Apr 1, 2015. 06:42 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • BP Prudhoe Bay Royalty Trust: Annual Report Indicates Termination And Shares Overvaluation [View article]
    Bill,

    Excellent, thanks for posting, so it looks like we have the following estimates in the game:

    malevy: $1.20 - $1.80 (from various comments)
    Reid D. Notes: $1.05 (from article, pending possible update)
    Cunningham: $1.00 - $1.05
    Trinder: $0.9553

    Yes, the new 2014 Production Tax calculation is probably the going to be the largest source of error in my model. I used the 3 actual 2014 quarterly operating periods reported thus far to try and create a formula but I freely admit it may be materially incorrect. Also the Condensate Limit being reached that was mentioned in that January 8-K as the reason for the very large prior period catch up payment as part of the January distribution could also be another source of error.

    Don't be shy people, let's get everyone's numbers posted BEFORE they announce the next BPT distribution, just think of all the fame and bragging rights you can win!!!*

    Best Regards,
    Phil

    *No purchase necessary. Void where prohibited. Any fame awards are really only in the contestants' minds and bragging rights are purely in jest. Winning has no cash value. ;-)
    Apr 1, 2015. 04:40 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • BP Prudhoe Bay Royalty Trust: Annual Report Indicates Termination And Shares Overvaluation [View article]
    Alright Sports Fans!!

    It's time to post your final modeled estimates for the BPT April distribution.

    My estimate is now $0.9553 (down ~64.5% from the $2.6884 paid in January). I have posted additional details with Key Metrics from my projected 1Q15 and 2Q15 financials here: http://bit.ly/1C91Ldv

    Bill Cunningham, I also went ahead and posted my full "Statements of Cash Earnings and Distributions" as well, just in case you (or anyone else) might be interested in the additional projected detail.

    Reid D. Notes, any update on your $1.05 estimate now that we are past March 31?

    The more posted estimates the better so we can see if we have any collective wisdom or if we are all just nuts.

    Best Regards,
    Phil
    Apr 1, 2015. 01:35 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • BP Prudhoe Bay Royalty Trust: Annual Report Indicates Termination And Shares Overvaluation [View article]
    All,

    Here'a a link to a recent energy related breakfast here in Houston on March 26 with videos of the various presentations. James Wicklund's presentation "The Price of Oil – The Latest in a String of Down-Cycles" is worth the 20 minutes to watch.

    Link: http://bit.ly/1BIlkJV

    Best Regards,
    Phil
    Mar 31, 2015. 12:12 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • BP Prudhoe Bay Royalty Trust: Annual Report Indicates Termination And Shares Overvaluation [View article]
    malevy,

    Your expected distribution is $1.20 and your best case estimate is $1.80, what is driving the $0.60 difference in your model?

    Are you assuming there is another large payment for prior period adjustments?

    In your earlier comment you make this statement:

    "I believe they can effectively return small amounts of capital any time they want."

    Why would the BP Alaska employees tasked with providing the data and payment to the BPT Trustee ever be able to do what you stated?

    In your earlier comment you also made this statement:

    "If management wants to "hat trick" an extra $.20 - $.30 there are other ways to do it (we've seen it before.)"

    Can you provide a link to any BPT press releases or financial filings that support that statement?

    Again, why would the BP Alaska employees tasked with providing the data and payment to the BPT Trustee ever be able to do what you stated?

    Hypothetically, if the next distribution comes in at $1.00 that would be a ~63% reduction from the prior payment, if there are investors who are not paying any attention that suddenly see a 63% drop in their payout I think that might matter to them.

    Best Regards,
    Phil
    Mar 27, 2015. 01:01 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • BP Prudhoe Bay Royalty Trust: Annual Report Indicates Termination And Shares Overvaluation [View article]
    It will be very interesting to see the market reaction if the distribution is much lower than the last payment, since it appears that BPT is massively owned by retail investors (based on some recent data I saw, institutional ownership looks to only be ~11%).

    The recent massive drop in BPT unit price appears to have been driven by the JPM research report so I am wondering if that was mainly retail investors in JPM's system seeing the report realizing they don't fully understand what they own and then exiting. If so then I am also wondering, if the next distribution is a large decline, will that trigger another wave of retail investors to exit?

    My model estimate for the next distribution is tracking slightly below $1, although that assumes there are not any large prior period catch up payments like there were for the January distribution.
    Mar 26, 2015. 11:54 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • BP Prudhoe Bay Royalty Trust: Annual Report Indicates Termination And Shares Overvaluation [View article]
    malevy,

    So is your best case estimate for the next distribution ~$1.80?
    If the distribution comes in at around $1.00, where would you expect to see BPT trade?

    Best Regards,
    Phil
    Mar 26, 2015. 10:52 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • BP Prudhoe Bay Royalty Trust: Annual Report Indicates Termination And Shares Overvaluation [View article]
    Yogi6262 and malevy,

    Thanks for the responses and the link.

    Best Regards,
    Phil
    Mar 24, 2015. 10:45 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • BP Prudhoe Bay Royalty Trust: Annual Report Indicates Termination And Shares Overvaluation [View article]
    malevy,

    I missed it, did he explain what changed his view from Feb 10, 2015? As of that date he was expecting oil to go to $20: http://nws.mx/1OtZgfT

    Also did he have a new target price and any timing expectations?

    Best Regards,
    Phil
    Mar 23, 2015. 11:56 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • BP Prudhoe Bay Royalty Trust: Annual Report Indicates Termination And Shares Overvaluation [View article]
    Be Here Now,

    You're welcome, we'll see how much fun everyone can make of me on the financials in May!

    Also my April distribution estimate will be assuming there are no more large prior period payments so we'll see how that goes too.

    Best Regards,
    Phil
    Mar 19, 2015. 03:45 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Blood In The Water - Time To Buy BP Prudhoe Bay Royalty Trust [View article]
    Alex,

    I know you have already fully exited your BPT position but for fun I have posted some detailed estimates for what numbers are going to show up in BPT's 1Q15 10-Q here (based on my BPT projection model): http://bit.ly/1LxsOdv

    My estimate for their next distribution is tracking around $1.00, but I will post an updated estimate on April 1. I expect them to announce the April distribution around April 3.

    Best Regards,
    Phil
    Mar 19, 2015. 01:41 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • BP Prudhoe Bay Royalty Trust: Annual Report Indicates Termination And Shares Overvaluation [View article]
    All,

    I posted some detailed estimates for what numbers are going to show up in BPT's 1Q15 10-Q here: http://bit.ly/1LxsOdv

    My estimate for their next distribution is tracking around $1.00, but I will post an updated estimate on April 1.

    Best Regards,
    Phil
    Mar 19, 2015. 01:34 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
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