Western Union: 4.1% Dividend Yield With Excellent Upside [View article]
I agree with you. I like WU, but have only a small position, because I am not sure about the business model at 5 years. I see lot of alternatives now to send money.
I also agree about MorningStar. I read with pleasure their papers, but can have different opinions.
For example, on Kellogg, my estimate was 57-58 USD post Pringles deal, whereas MS keep valuating the company at 52 USD wich seems too pessimistic to me.
Western Union: 4.1% Dividend Yield With Excellent Upside [View article]
"I just read yesterday that 44% of the population has smart phones. Already. The level of convenient interconnetedness is just staggering, and continuing to grow rapidly."
Don't forget to consider that WU is also investing (and have already investing) the money transfer process by phone or Internet.
But in the last call, it does not seem that WU is losing market shares because of Electronic Payment Process, but because of traditional concurrence (MoneyGram? It's not disclosed) in some key corridors with fees lower that WU.
I have some friends in Europe that send money in Argentina, and they use WU, simply because their family in Argentina have no bank accounts. They agree however that WU have outrageously high fees.
At current numbers, even If I cannot predict what will occurred in the money transfer industry, I still think the stock is cheap (my article is full of factual numbers), but I would not put all my money on this one.
Western Union: 4.1% Dividend Yield With Excellent Upside [View article]
Thank you for your comment, I quite agree with you.
Previous comments have been a bit hard on MorningStar in my opinion.
I disagree some of their valuations but MorningStar process (ROIC, moat, valuation) is solid and they have nicely formulated with the 5 moats sources what Warren Buffet has told us in a less explicit way for years.
I agree however that maybe WU may not be anymore a wide moat.
Ps to Archman Investor: please note that I refer to MorningStar in only two sentences of my article...
Government Properties REIT: Do You Want To Be The U.S.'s Landlord? [View article]
"A.) With a highly specific property (that’s an assumption, possible that properties are easily leasable to other tenants), how easily do you think they could sell them?"
You're right, especially with high cap rate suburban offices. GOV's shareholders should keep an eye on occupancy rate.
"D.) If the government reduces its need for space, or there is a lack of product, do you think the “management” changes strategy? "
I do not think so, because GOV REIT is tiny in comparison of all U.S. Government, U.S. States, Agencies real estate assets...
By the way, as in France, they may have more sale and leaseback operations from Government or Agency than in the past, which will increase the numbers of available assets.
HP: Once-In-A-Lifetime Opportunity Or Value Trap? [View article]
Hello Bill,
Thank you for your comment.
I am not sure that HP balance sheet is really a problem.
An assets impairment doesn't affect HP "real" cash flow, and current interest expense (roughly $0.5 bb) are largely cover by current free cash flow (roughly $8 bb).
However it is true that HP debt maturity is quite short, as you can see on Morningstar (http://bit.ly/STqImA).
Seth Klarman had massively to his HP existing position last quarter, as you can see on Dataroma (http://bit.ly/RhHYpG).
CYS Investments: An Undervalued mREIT With A 10.8% Yield [View article]
CYS Investments: An Undervalued mREIT With A 10.8% Yield [View article]
I fully agree with your article and your conclusion.
It should be noted as a good news that CPR for April 2013 fell at 12%.
Disclaimer : long on CYS
Western Union: 4.1% Dividend Yield With Excellent Upside [View article]
I also agree about MorningStar. I read with pleasure their papers, but can have different opinions.
For example, on Kellogg, my estimate was 57-58 USD post Pringles deal, whereas MS keep valuating the company at 52 USD wich seems too pessimistic to me.
Western Union: 4.1% Dividend Yield With Excellent Upside [View article]
Don't forget to consider that WU is also investing (and have already investing) the money transfer process by phone or Internet.
But in the last call, it does not seem that WU is losing market shares because of Electronic Payment Process, but because of traditional concurrence (MoneyGram? It's not disclosed) in some key corridors with fees lower that WU.
I have some friends in Europe that send money in Argentina, and they use WU, simply because their family in Argentina have no bank accounts. They agree however that WU have outrageously high fees.
At current numbers, even If I cannot predict what will occurred in the money transfer industry, I still think the stock is cheap (my article is full of factual numbers), but I would not put all my money on this one.
Thank you all for comments.
Western Union: 4.1% Dividend Yield With Excellent Upside [View article]
Previous comments have been a bit hard on MorningStar in my opinion.
I disagree some of their valuations but MorningStar process (ROIC, moat, valuation) is solid and they have nicely formulated with the 5 moats sources what Warren Buffet has told us in a less explicit way for years.
I agree however that maybe WU may not be anymore a wide moat.
Ps to Archman Investor: please note that I refer to MorningStar in only two sentences of my article...
Western Union: 4.1% Dividend Yield With Excellent Upside [View article]
But "never was" seems to me a false assertion.
Let's look at the numbers:
Revenue 2002 : 2,743
Revenue TTM : 5,671
EPS 2002 : 0.65
EPS TTM: 2.02
That's 12% CAGR for EPS...
The Dysfunctional Tech Giant You Must Avoid Now [View article]
I think HP potential is huge with a good strategy and good CEO.
With so bad past decisions, how many company could still have a FCF of $8bb?
"Its Services Division alone is nearly 20% larger than Accenture and has similar operating margins."
Not sure about that. It appears that operating margins of HP Services Division is declining quickly. In the last quarter, 0-2% from 8-10% last years.
Government Properties REIT: Do You Want To Be The U.S.'s Landlord? [View article]
You're right, especially with high cap rate suburban offices. GOV's shareholders should keep an eye on occupancy rate.
"D.) If the government reduces its need for space, or there is a lack of product, do you think the “management” changes strategy? "
I do not think so, because GOV REIT is tiny in comparison of all U.S. Government, U.S. States, Agencies real estate assets...
By the way, as in France, they may have more sale and leaseback operations from Government or Agency than in the past, which will increase the numbers of available assets.
HP: Once-In-A-Lifetime Opportunity Or Value Trap? [View article]
But HP stock can quickly go up [or a little more down] if next quarters show [or doesn't show yet] improvements.
Hewlett-Packard's Disappearing Book Value [View article]
Philip Morris (9 bb annual Free Cash Flow) trade on 18 PE multiple with negative equity!
HP: Once-In-A-Lifetime Opportunity Or Value Trap? [View article]
Thank you for your comment.
I am not sure that HP balance sheet is really a problem.
An assets impairment doesn't affect HP "real" cash flow, and current interest expense (roughly $0.5 bb) are largely cover by current free cash flow (roughly $8 bb).
However it is true that HP debt maturity is quite short, as you can see on Morningstar (http://bit.ly/STqImA).
Seth Klarman had massively to his HP existing position last quarter, as you can see on Dataroma (http://bit.ly/RhHYpG).
Regards from Paris