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Pierre Sookiew

 
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  • Gdf Suez Is Going On A Diet [View article]
    Thanks wiesje I really appreciate your relevant technical analysis.

    I will try to release an update on GDF Suez as the company release H1 results. I still identify 2 key drivers : - potential growth in fast growing markets
    - significant cost-cutting (a €3.5bn cost-cutting plan)
    For the moment I am quite busy but I will try to write a new article
    Aug 7 05:45 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Veni, Vidi, Vinci The Economic Downturn [View instapost]
    Vinci and other concessions build, finance and operate motorways. In return, these companies collect a toll.However, highways are owned by the French State.
    Jul 4 03:38 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • GDF Suez Is Still A Good Long-Term Play With A Price Target Of $25 [View article]
    France's prospects of emerging from recession brightened in June as the private sector shrank at its slowest pace in 10 months and the rate of job losses eased to its weakest in a year. Despite some signs of improvement, France is still in recession and economists estimate a recovery by the end of the year.

    Nonetheless, my concern is about the economic policy of the government with possible new tax increases. France aims to make budget savings of around €28 billion. The state auditor warned that President François Hollande’s government would have no choice but to cut billions of euros in spending if it was to meet European Union deficit targets by 2015. But, it seems very difficult to cut public spending in a country with generous welfare and pension benefits and a bloated public sector. Consequently, the solution is...taxation (80% of all the progress in cutting the deficit in recent years had come from tax increases). For 2014, the government wants savings of €14 billion and needless to say that taxation will be a large component. Most of the tax burden should be bear by higher-income taxpayers instead of companies. After a series of tax hikes on companies since Hollande came to office, Finance Minister Moscovici said that corporate taxation would have to be mindful of not undermining firms’ competitiveness.
    Jul 3 04:18 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • GDF Suez Is Still A Good Long-Term Play With A Price Target Of $25 [View article]
    As for GDF Suez, my view is still positive as the group is reducing its debt. The management expects to bring it back around €30 billion euros by the end of 2014 (vs €34 billion at the end of March).
    - the group plans to sell €11 billion of assets in 2013 and 2014, and seeks to raise €600 million by selling large stakes in its wind and solar activity (up to 60% of some of its wind and solar activities in France and some other European countries)
    - GDF Suez is refinancing its debt at a lower cost. The company has recently launched several operations to buy back a portfolio of debt bearing an average coupon of circa 5% (outstanding corporate bonds due between 2015 and 2020). GDF Suez issued on July 3rd hybrid bonds for an aggregated amount equivalent to €1.7 billion. Hybrid bonds are increasingly popular among Utilities companies because it allows them to inflate their capital without the constraints of conventional capital increase (via a share issue), such as changing the allocation of capital.
    Jul 3 03:49 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • GDF Suez Is Still A Good Long-Term Play With A Price Target Of $25 [View article]
    Update
    - Q1 Revenues unchanged at €24.6 billion ($32 billion)
    - Q1 Ebitda -5.1% to €5 billion ($6.5 billion)
    - Net debt at €34.1 billion ($44 billion)
    - GDF Suez confirmed its 2013 outlook, forecasting a net recurring profit between 3.1 and 3.5 billion euros ($4-4.6 billion).

    No surprises with these Q1 results in line with the yearly outlook announced by the Group. I want to flag the good perf of Global Gas and LNG business line with with strong arbitrage activity in Asia and Europe. Furthermore, colder weather conditions compared to 2012 supporting sales of natural gas in France
    Pressure on margins due to weak economic environment in Europe (general decrease of electricity prices) and the outage of two Belgian nuclear plants.
    Balance sheet remains strong: net debt/EBITDA ratio was 2.4x in line with the target of ≤2.5x.
    I remain long on GDF Suez with a TP of $25.

    In Paris, GDF Suez gains +0.75%.

    Next: dividend payment April,30
    Apr 23 08:48 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • GDF Suez Is Still A Good Long-Term Play With A Price Target Of $25 [View article]
    - Q1 Revenues unchanged at €24.6 billion ($32 billion)
    - Q1 Ebitda -5.1% to €5 billion ($6.5 billion)
    - confirmed its 2013 outlook, forecasting a net recurring profit between 3.1 and 3.5 billion euros.

    No surprises. Pressure on margins due to weak economic environment in Europe (general decrease of electricity prices) and the outage of two Belgian nuclear plants.
    In Paris, GDF Suez gains +0.6%.
    Apr 23 08:16 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • GDF Suez Is Still A Good Long-Term Play With A Price Target Of $25 [View article]
    GDF SUEZ : French Gas Tariffs To Drop 0.5% in March.

    Not so surprising. French gas tariffs are now calculated on a monthly basis since Jan 2013. I also want to flag that supply costs for GDFZY depend on three main factors: oil prices, market price of natural gas and exchange rates.

    http://bit.ly/Xy8hgN
    Mar 14 07:13 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • GDF Suez Is Still A Good Long-Term Play With A Price Target Of $25 [View article]
    The ex-dividend date is set for April 25, 2013.
    Mar 13 03:20 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Gdf Suez Is Going On A Diet [View article]
    GDF Suez release its FY results:
    -Sales rose 7% to €97 billion ($126 billion) - beat consensus
    -EBITDA +3% to €17 billion ($22 billion), strong contribution of gas and LNG business above all in Asia
    -Net profit fell to €1.6 billion ($2.10 billion)from 4 billion, mainly due to 2 billion euros worth of post-tax impairment losses on assets in Europe.
    -Dividends confirmed at €1.50 => dividend yield around 10%
    -Net income between €3.1 and €3.5 billion ($4-4.6 billion) for 2013 and 2014. Management expects a rebound in 2015

    Globally not surprising results, roughly in line with consensus. Guidance confirmed by the management but I am waiting for more details. I will try to release my article as soon as possible.

    GDF Suez rose 1% in Paris at 11h00 GMT
    Feb 28 06:03 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Gdf Suez Is Going On A Diet [View article]
    For me, GDF Suez is clearly a viable long term investment as the company is developing its operations in fast-growing markets (Europe still represents 80% of its business). People say the dividend is the main argument to hold the stock. I would say it is a good argument given the current tough economic and regulatory climate. It enables to keep its investors.
    However, as I pointed out in this article, the company should give up the dividend policy in the coming years.The pay-out ratio is close to 100% and for me it is not sustainable. GDF Suez does not optimize its cash by using asset disposals and debt to pay dividends !
    I am wondering about the management position as EDF surprised by increasing its dividends. I do no think GDF is able to raise dividends given its financial position. Stop paying dividends this year is very unlikely since its two largest shareholders, Groupe Bruxelles Lambert, the holding company of the Belgian businessman Albert Frère ( 5.2%) and the French State (36%) need cash.
    Feb 18 04:49 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Gdf Suez Is Going On A Diet [View article]
    EDF, one of the main competitor in Europe, reported its earnings this week, globally in line with consensus but surprised with an increase in dividends:

    - Sales +5.8% to €72.7 billion ($95 billion)
    - EBITDA +7,7% to €16,1 billion ($21 billion)
    - Net profit +5.3% to €3.3 billion ($4 billion)
    - Dividends rose to €1.25 vs €1.15 last year (current dividend yield around 8%)
    - Net debt to EBITDA of 2.4x
    - investments of €12 billion ($16 billion) for 2013

    In full-year 2013, the Group aims to deliver EBITDA between 0% and 3% organic growth.
    Feb 15 03:00 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Gdf Suez Is Going On A Diet [View article]
    Dear all,

    GDF Suez will release its FY2012 results on Feb 28. So I will revise my TP.

    Given the recent news flow, a downward revision is likely to happen. For the moment I am waiting for the 2012 full year results and more guidance from the company. I played with figures and tried a conservative investment case. I computed a TP of $23 (with EUR1=USD1,34).

    Main concern about possible regulatory measures for utilities sector due to the deterioration of the macroeconomic environment. Above all, measures that would weight upon margins.
    Feb 15 08:40 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • GDF Suez: New Target Price Of $26.5 [View article]
    I wanted to say bad news of course. GBL seems to cast a doubt about the company growth potential. I apologize for the slip of tongue. Actually yes it is a good news for GBL with a premium on GDF Suez shares above all if the stock price continues to drop
    Jan 24 01:37 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • GDF Suez: New Target Price Of $26.5 [View article]
    Hi Veritas !

    The stock retreated a little as rumors about difficulties of the company to decrease its net debt. GDF Suez has scrapped the sale of a stake in its German gas storage unit, as bids came in too low. The French utility relied on the sale to reduce its net debt by 500 million euros ($665 million).

    $20 is a strong support and I do no expect this support to be broken on short-term.

    Good news today with the Belgian holding company GBL that will cash in almost half of its stake in GDF Suez via 1 billion euros ($1.33 billion) of exchangeable bonds. The sale represents 2.3 % of the French group's share capital. Share price advanced in Paris.

    French military action in Mali has no impact on the share price because the group has limited activity in the country. I will carry out a new analysis on GDf Suez after the company's earnings report on Feb. 9.
    Jan 24 04:52 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • GDF Suez: New Target Price Of $26.5 [View article]
    Investor day with a downgrade of net income forecasts. New article is coming.
    Dec 7 10:05 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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