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Pierre Sookiew
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Graduated from Audencia Nantes School of Management (France). CFA Level I passed in December 2012. I have developed a strong interest in finance through my curriculum and I am particularly interested in equities. I have work experience in corporate and investment banking and in financial... More
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  • Unilever, Geographical Mix And Food Divestments As Catalysts

    Elevator Pitch

    Hybrid food and home and personal care company, with a strong exposure to emerging markets (55% of sales)

    Thesis & Catalyst For Unilever NV (NYSE:UN)

    •Unilever aims to grow by 5-7% annually amid the benefit of geographical mix as well as a focus on innovation and improve margin expansion and cash flow

    •Its personal care business is very dynamic, which has posted double-digit growth for the last few quarters.

    •While developing markets growth was up an impressive 10.4%, developed market was sluggish due to a tough macro environment, with like-for-like sales falling by 1.9%. Sales in North America were up just 0.3% and sales in Europe declined by 3.1%.

    •The disposal of its food division, which, along with the recent activity surrounding Heinz, is likely to support the stock (indeed, ultimately see a rump business focused on emerging markets and personal care listed in India or China). Foods contribution continues to decline, now accounting for just 27.7% of group sales, down from 29.4% last year,

    Variant View

    •Headwinds: commodity cost inflation, uncertain macro-economic environment

     

     

    Per share data in EUROS20082009201020112012
    EPS adjusted1.231.201.431.461.61
    % Change-18.2%-2.7%19.2%2.3%10.5%
    EPS adjusted and fully diluted1.191.161.381.411.57
    % Change-18.1%-2.7%19.3%2.3%10.7%
    EPS reported1.791.211.511.511.58
    % Change32.3%-32.6%25.2%0.1%4.9%
    EPS Consensus     
    Cash flow per share1.382.061.951.943.01
    Book value per share3.544.315.155.085.36
    DPS0.770.820.880.900.97
    Number of shares, YE (m)3,024.93,024.93,024.93,024.93,024.9
    Number of shares, fully diluted, YE (m)2,885.62,909.02,905.12,908.12,908.1

    Tags: UN
    Jul 04 4:04 PM | Link | Comment!
  • Veni, Vidi, Vinci The Economic Downturn

    Elevator Pitch

    World leader in construction and concessions providing visibility for 2013 despite a challenging economic environment thanks to a resilient business model

    Thesis & Catalyst For Vinci Sa (OTC:VCISF)

    -Despite a tough economic environment in Europe, Vinci recorded an extremely strong Q1, providing visibility for 2013 : sales rose by 3.4% to 8.4 billion euros ($10.9 billion). Contracting revenues rose +5.2% (vs cs -0.6%), order intake increased +5.5%, the backlog remains solid €33.1 billion +2.3% year on year ($43 billion) representing 11.4 months of activity. Traffic is practically stable -0.3%.

    -Uncertainties are high in 2014, given the expected slowdown in French activity and fiscal tightening but Vinci has a resilient business model especially in its motorways business model which brings two-thirds of EBIT and high flexibility on costs that limit margins deterioration. The group should also benefit from the French Motorways stimulus plan (talks underway with the government and possibly to be announced this summer). Vinci has been excelling, delivering historic peak margin level (between 4% and 5%) since 2005, even during the crisis in 2009.

    -The balance sheet is strong with a 2.5x Net Debt/Ebitda. Net debt declined at €12.8 billion ($16.6 billion) as of March 31, 2013 vs. €13.1 billion ($17 billion) as of March 30, 2012 and should continue to decrease during this year.

    -The solid balance sheet and strong FCF generation (8-10%) allow the group to make some acquisitions in order to deliver an EPS growth in the coming years. In the last two years, the only significant acquisition has been ANA (the holding controlling all Portuguese airports) for €3.1billion ($4 billion)and is expected to close within the next couple of months.

    Valuation

    A safe play, given its growing diversified profile (37% sales outside France, international order book up 12% YoY, diversification in airports), high flexibility on costs) and an attractive dividend yields (around 5 %).

    Revenue & EPS Outlook

    Disclosure: I have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours.

    Tags: VCISF
    Jul 03 4:40 PM | Link | 3 Comments
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