A Generational Buying Opportunity In Gastar Exploration [View article]
Bottom line is that this lawsuit changes the whole ball game in regard to GST. I am not a lawyer and do not know enough about these issues to make a reasonable assumption about who is right/ wrong, and or what a potential lengthy legal battle could cost to a company who is not cash rich.
The reason for the price depression vs. the asset base/ future potential in the past 6 months is now apparent for those who wondered how this stock was trading so far below intrinsic value (me included). Obviously some big players, lawyers, CHK executives, GST executives, potentially hedge funds shorting, etc. all knew about the impending law suit and the effect it would have when the sheep got wind of it.
While most panic selling and over-reaction has likely been concluded at this point, there is just no true clarity to the situation other than initial salvos by the companies involved.
Also worrisome is the fact that Gastar has settled other business related lawsuits in the past for millions of dollars. Even if they win and get this case dismissed it will surely cost more millions of dollars in lawyers fees and/or settlement costs. GST's management is looking increasingly incompetent and non-professional in my opinion. They need to come out with much stronger public statements, press releases, clarity about lawsuit and the company's prospects, and probably replace an exec or two with some new blood.
I honestly think the best play here is to wait for pertinent news to come out regarding the lawsuit's potential outcome or proceedings, and then make your purchase decision. Buying now, or anytime before there is a much clearer picture of where this is headed, and what it will cost the company, is purely speculative in it's purest form. The good news is the company really doesn't have a huge debt load for its situation, and BK seems highly unlikely in the current circumstances. The trading of the preferred also leads me to believe investors aren't thinking BK is a possibility anywhere in the near future. The yield is only 13% and does not indicate any true panic on the debt levels, cash situation.
I am fine with buying above $1.00 as long as I know this legal issue will be resolved in a satisfactory manner, and not irreparably damage GST's prospects going forward.
It is most important to be on the RIGHT side of the trade, not get the lowest possible price IMO.
Having said that, taking a highly speculative position with the common stock very well may have it's purpose within your investing criteria depending on your personal situation. But I would not risk money you are not perfectly willing to lose for the chance of getting 5x and higher returns long-term.
I am personally out of this stock, but am waiting and researching to be prepared to possibly purchase additional shares as things develop.
Sometimes price action is a future indicator for news, as we all know that insider trading is alive and well on greedy wall street, and it is only the bag-holding shareholders who truly get burned over and over again. Tread with caution here. If you initiate a long position, give yourself a reasonable stop with good risk/reward ratio.
IE Buy @ $0.70, stop order at $0.60, profit target minimum of $1.15.
The preferred shares, ATPGP, traded at $5.00 friday. This is with a $2.00 dividend that will be paid in September, before the looming bond payment. So really you are risking $3.00 to own a $100 par value preferred convertible that pays $8.00 per year. Just buy it and if they can keep the doors open for 6 months you are paid back for your investment. I think thats the way to play ATPG for now. Or using options. Great article though.
A Generational Buying Opportunity In Gastar Exploration [View article]
I am a pretty big fan of the preferred as well. Hard to find anywhere else in the world with an 8% yield I find to be extremely safe based on fundamentals. Best of luck!
Don't trust this rally; it's a major bull trap, says currency analyst Christopher Vecchio. Pressures on global financial markets are too intense to support a sustained run in stocks right now. All it will take is just a few gusts of negativity to derail the entire train. [View news story]
Just another Monday Morning Quarterback if you ask me. Look into the future moron, not the past.
Chesapeake Energy (CHK) is saddled with $1.4B of previously unreported liabilities due over coming years from off-balance sheet deals, WSJ reports. The company has commitments to banks requiring delivery of specific amounts of oil and gas. These so-called VPPs are essentially debts, with payments due in fuel rather than cash. Shares take a tumble, -1.7%. [View news story]
Time To Buy This 13% Dividend Monster: Newcastle Investment [View article]
It actually briefly broke below $6.00 on April 10th and I bought a small position. In hindsight I should've bought more. But patience and conservatism is the name of the game, and I am happy with my 1/4 position size I did buy.
Treat Your Portfolio Like A Private Equity Fund [View article]
2 quotes for everyone -
'To enjoy a reasonable chance of continued better-than-average results, the investor must follow policies which are 1) inherently sound and promising, and (2) are not popular on wall street'
'Great investing requires an independent spirit, and the courage to acquire assets the crowd disdains. Disdain creates bargains.'
Anyone care to guess what famed investors spoke the words above?
Treat Your Portfolio Like A Private Equity Fund [View article]
I generally advocate downside stop protection for most investors, especially when investing in speculative stage companies. This limits your risk and leaves your rewards wide-open.
Treat Your Portfolio Like A Private Equity Fund [View article]
Thank you all for the comments and thought provoking statements. I try to champion the cause of the retail investor, and hate to hear things like:
"The retail investors reading and writing here don't have access to information and capital necessary to behave like private equity firms. We are not on a level playing field with those guys because of this and in the short term they will likely always do better riding volatility and "playing" the market."
In this modern era, there is becoming less and less 'legal' information that is available to the public vs. Private Equity. With the internet and vast communication networks, I do not feel it is the lack of information retail investors lack, but the lack of drive, willpower, and dedication to ferret out the valuable information. Sure it is not easy to run a PE firm or be the extremely successful, but that should be EVERYONE's (Mom & Pop Investors included) goal.
It is much easier to rely on other experts opinions, recommendations, and guidance, but throughout my investing experience I have found that when I follow paths of my own origination, it has been to my benefit.
My goal here was to stimulate thought, and spur on the individual's goal to be great. To be as great as Private Equity. Never say you can't, because of any reason, because then you have already lost.
Dare to dream of a day when you are a mightier investor than these Private Equity firms, by following your own home-cooked recipe for success! (Whatever that may be!)
I also advocate still having a long term commitment to ideas you have determined to be sound, and sticking with your investment for at least a 1 year+ time period. Preferably longer if the thesis remains true. I have found that most times as long as you are buying an asset at a true Value price point, then you will be just fine in the long run, and are better served sticking to your guns than frantically trading in and out of positions.
Time To Buy This 13% Dividend Monster: Newcastle Investment [View article]
Thanks for the insightful comments John. I sold NCT after holding it for months from purchases below $5.00. When it broke above $6.00 I began to sell out of my position because I knew that a secondary was a very strong possibility, and that I could always buy back the stock on a downswing. I always try to protect some profits by selling and locking in gains, and then am willing to re-evaluate the situation and may re-enter a long position as I see fit.
I am not wanting to play this on a news item by news item basis. I would like to build a core position to hold for the long-term as long as I think management is executing effectively. However I will not hesitate to trade in and out around this position when the conditions are right.
I think this would be a fine buy and hold for someone at retirement age due to the yield and what I feel like is a relatively small downside to current prices. I also would recommend using a stop loss at a pre-determined price to ensure you do not get burned with your hard earned retirement funds.
I don't feel that NCT is 'hot' right now and I think if it ever gained popularity it would easily be above $10. One thing I have learned is that NO STOCK is safe from market panics, and downturns, so I do not view NCT as inherently more risky than say GE or JNJ.
To outperform the broader market you have to behave differently and think differently than the pundits, dividend-chasers, news media and your peer investors. If you are just a blind follower who lacks ingenuity, creativity, and a strong sense of self-awareness, you will never do better than the masses.
GE went to $5.00 during the market recession, a stock everyone thought was invincible. GM went Bankrupt and that was considered a sure fire blue chip.
The more I avoid the consensus sure things (AAPL) and look for ideas on my own and investments that aren't popular I have drastically increased my performance.
A Generational Buying Opportunity In Gastar Exploration [View article]
The reason for the price depression vs. the asset base/ future potential in the past 6 months is now apparent for those who wondered how this stock was trading so far below intrinsic value (me included). Obviously some big players, lawyers, CHK executives, GST executives, potentially hedge funds shorting, etc. all knew about the impending law suit and the effect it would have when the sheep got wind of it.
While most panic selling and over-reaction has likely been concluded at this point, there is just no true clarity to the situation other than initial salvos by the companies involved.
Also worrisome is the fact that Gastar has settled other business related lawsuits in the past for millions of dollars. Even if they win and get this case dismissed it will surely cost more millions of dollars in lawyers fees and/or settlement costs. GST's management is looking increasingly incompetent and non-professional in my opinion. They need to come out with much stronger public statements, press releases, clarity about lawsuit and the company's prospects, and probably replace an exec or two with some new blood.
I honestly think the best play here is to wait for pertinent news to come out regarding the lawsuit's potential outcome or proceedings, and then make your purchase decision. Buying now, or anytime before there is a much clearer picture of where this is headed, and what it will cost the company, is purely speculative in it's purest form. The good news is the company really doesn't have a huge debt load for its situation, and BK seems highly unlikely in the current circumstances. The trading of the preferred also leads me to believe investors aren't thinking BK is a possibility anywhere in the near future. The yield is only 13% and does not indicate any true panic on the debt levels, cash situation.
I am fine with buying above $1.00 as long as I know this legal issue will be resolved in a satisfactory manner, and not irreparably damage GST's prospects going forward.
It is most important to be on the RIGHT side of the trade, not get the lowest possible price IMO.
Having said that, taking a highly speculative position with the common stock very well may have it's purpose within your investing criteria depending on your personal situation. But I would not risk money you are not perfectly willing to lose for the chance of getting 5x and higher returns long-term.
I am personally out of this stock, but am waiting and researching to be prepared to possibly purchase additional shares as things develop.
Sometimes price action is a future indicator for news, as we all know that insider trading is alive and well on greedy wall street, and it is only the bag-holding shareholders who truly get burned over and over again. Tread with caution here. If you initiate a long position, give yourself a reasonable stop with good risk/reward ratio.
IE Buy @ $0.70, stop order at $0.60, profit target minimum of $1.15.
Best of luck.
Why ATP Oil May Not Go Bankrupt [View article]
A Generational Buying Opportunity In Gastar Exploration [View article]
Don't trust this rally; it's a major bull trap, says currency analyst Christopher Vecchio. Pressures on global financial markets are too intense to support a sustained run in stocks right now. All it will take is just a few gusts of negativity to derail the entire train. [View news story]
Chesapeake Energy (CHK) is saddled with $1.4B of previously unreported liabilities due over coming years from off-balance sheet deals, WSJ reports. The company has commitments to banks requiring delivery of specific amounts of oil and gas. These so-called VPPs are essentially debts, with payments due in fuel rather than cash. Shares take a tumble, -1.7%. [View news story]
Time To Buy This 13% Dividend Monster: Newcastle Investment [View article]
Treat Your Portfolio Like A Private Equity Fund [View article]
Treat Your Portfolio Like A Private Equity Fund [View article]
Treat Your Portfolio Like A Private Equity Fund [View article]
Treat Your Portfolio Like A Private Equity Fund [View article]
'To enjoy a reasonable chance of continued better-than-average results, the investor must follow policies which are 1) inherently sound and promising, and (2) are not popular on wall street'
'Great investing requires an independent spirit, and the courage to acquire assets the crowd disdains. Disdain creates bargains.'
Anyone care to guess what famed investors spoke the words above?
Treat Your Portfolio Like A Private Equity Fund [View article]
Treat Your Portfolio Like A Private Equity Fund [View article]
Treat Your Portfolio Like A Private Equity Fund [View article]
"The retail investors reading and writing here don't have access to information and capital necessary to behave like private equity firms. We are not on a level playing field with those guys because of this and in the short term they will likely always do better riding volatility and "playing" the market."
In this modern era, there is becoming less and less 'legal' information that is available to the public vs. Private Equity. With the internet and vast communication networks, I do not feel it is the lack of information retail investors lack, but the lack of drive, willpower, and dedication to ferret out the valuable information. Sure it is not easy to run a PE firm or be the extremely successful, but that should be EVERYONE's (Mom & Pop Investors included) goal.
It is much easier to rely on other experts opinions, recommendations, and guidance, but throughout my investing experience I have found that when I follow paths of my own origination, it has been to my benefit.
My goal here was to stimulate thought, and spur on the individual's goal to be great. To be as great as Private Equity. Never say you can't, because of any reason, because then you have already lost.
Dare to dream of a day when you are a mightier investor than these Private Equity firms, by following your own home-cooked recipe for success! (Whatever that may be!)
I also advocate still having a long term commitment to ideas you have determined to be sound, and sticking with your investment for at least a 1 year+ time period. Preferably longer if the thesis remains true. I have found that most times as long as you are buying an asset at a true Value price point, then you will be just fine in the long run, and are better served sticking to your guns than frantically trading in and out of positions.
Best wishes to all.
Time To Buy This 13% Dividend Monster: Newcastle Investment [View article]
I am not wanting to play this on a news item by news item basis. I would like to build a core position to hold for the long-term as long as I think management is executing effectively. However I will not hesitate to trade in and out around this position when the conditions are right.
I think this would be a fine buy and hold for someone at retirement age due to the yield and what I feel like is a relatively small downside to current prices. I also would recommend using a stop loss at a pre-determined price to ensure you do not get burned with your hard earned retirement funds.
I don't feel that NCT is 'hot' right now and I think if it ever gained popularity it would easily be above $10. One thing I have learned is that NO STOCK is safe from market panics, and downturns, so I do not view NCT as inherently more risky than say GE or JNJ.
To outperform the broader market you have to behave differently and think differently than the pundits, dividend-chasers, news media and your peer investors. If you are just a blind follower who lacks ingenuity, creativity, and a strong sense of self-awareness, you will never do better than the masses.
GE went to $5.00 during the market recession, a stock everyone thought was invincible. GM went Bankrupt and that was considered a sure fire blue chip.
The more I avoid the consensus sure things (AAPL) and look for ideas on my own and investments that aren't popular I have drastically increased my performance.
Talk To Type Apps Plus Google Docs Offers Enormous Potential [View article]