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Pitbull Trading
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Strongly believe in Nassim Taleb's theories. Have a strong focus on the market psychology and behavioral finance aspect of equity trading. Prefer longer term trades for best risk/reward profiles. Still believe Buy & Hold strategies can be relevant in the current market.
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  • Which Way is the Market Headed Next?
    With the whipsaw action seen recently in ther international markets, many retail, professional and hedge fund investors are all thinking the same thing. Which way is the market headed next? Do we crash back down to Dow 1000? Or is it possible that the 'speculators' push the markets back up to challenge recent highs? 

    Thinking with the extremely greedy part of my brain I decided that the money would be much easier to make if the market was slowly marched upwards, rather than attempting to crash to further lows. Lets face it, fear and blood were in the streets. Pundits were panicking. Europe is eternally doomed. The USA is no longer considered AAA sovereign credit in a world of easily printed fiat currency. 

    Everyone knows that. The resolve the market has shown in the past few days to battle back from an overnight panic low will absolutely prove that the lows for 2011 are in. I may be a maniac or a pollyanna, but I truly think that now the game is different. Bernanke said safe investments are worthless until "mid-2013" at least. I can smell the greedy money on the sidelines waiting for a chance to put their riches to work. No one likes earning 0% on a CD or T-bill. 

    We will challenge our highs for the year in the upcoming 6 months. The fast money will pile right back in once the theoretical 'all clear' signal is given by Bernanke via QE3 or some positive economic numbers. In the long run, markets want to go up, and money needs to be made. There is always a bubble somewhere, and Bernanke is committed to making sure that our stocks are not going to be the first one to burst.

    Long NCT, HGT, SJT, GAIN, MPB, VLCCF, FRO, JMF (all recent purchases)




    Disclosure: I am long NCT, HGT, SJT, GAIN, MPB, VLCCF, FRO, JMF.
    Aug 11 10:49 PM | Link | Comment!
  • Citron Research Going 'All In' on Short of Harbin Electric (HRBN)

    It is now apparent that Andrew Left and the short sellers at Citron Research have risked their well-known reputation on their continued attack on Harbin Electric. It has been made clear throughout SEC filings, the buyout financing by China Development Bank and other regulatory statutes have been (to date) satisfied. The only thing investors are waiting on is a definitive proxy statement and a date for the vote in favor of the management led buyout, including CEO Tianfu Yang and Abax Capital, as well as other insiders. 


    The past successes of Citron Research have possibly led to a high-level of hubris and shoddy detective work. Many of the accusations are supported by innuendo, guilt-by-association, and selective fact checking. The latest attempt at a 'hit job' came today and the stock was punished severely (being down 19% intraday). As the investors had time to read through Mr. Left's sloppy hit job, the stock ended up recovering and finished the day up nearly 5%. 


    It obviously helped that Harbins' CEO Yang came out and stated a very clear rebuttal of Citron's accusations, saying, "a patchwork of fabricated evidence, falsehoods, selective use of information, and clearly biased and dishonest reporting, showing that the authors' only intention is to drive our stock price down. We are aware that there are over 7 million shares of short interest outstanding as publicly reported. We condemn this attempt to further hurt our shareholders and want to reassure them, once again, that we stand by the accuracy of all our filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission ("SEC"),".


    I understand not being able to change your opinions and 'sticking to your guns', but according to this Bloomberg article, the owner of Citron research (Andrew Left) was, "disciplined by the National Futures Association for accusations in 1995 that he “cheated, defrauded and deceived commodity futures customers,” according to the association’s website."


    "Let he who has not sinned cast the first stones" 


    Mr. Left would do well to remember that sacred script. He is doing what most Americans would consider unethical and shady. Printing half-truths and poorly thought out 'gumshoe detective work' on his website without any clear evidence of any legal wrong doing. This is all while he has a devout horde of short-seller subscribers that are short Harbin Electric. (His firms' track record on Chinese stocks up to date is commendable).


    This is another blatant case of manipulating the psychology of the crowd who simply copy trades without due diligence. A poop-and-scoop, if you will, rather than a pump-and-dump. It appears to most who have watched this circus that Citron Research has decided to roll the dice of its long-term credibility on the outcome of this buyout. The reporting work and facts presented are all but concrete and clearly based on innuendo and misleading information. It is a shame that what started out as a seemingly helpful researcher to investors, now appears to be nothing more than another greedy short-selling outfit all about the cash, not the truth.




    Disclosure: I have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours.
    Aug 04 12:56 PM | Link | 7 Comments
  • Time to put on a Volatility Trade
    It is time for speculators and victorious profiteers to take a look at themselves in the mirror and ask, "Am I a Pig?" or "Am I a Hog?". If you are not so sure of the answer, because we all know what happens to the hogs, then you may need to add some volatility to your portfolio. The best way to do this would be through the purchase of the true futures at a 3-12 month strip, but if you are unable to do so, then consider the rudimentary products VXX and TVIX (risky and super risky, and long term terrible investments) to hedge against future downside risk at a very affordable time. VIX is at multi-year lows. I am not so convinced that everything is hunky-dory again, and that the global problems we face are being properly accounted for through volatlilty measurements. Sell in May and Go Away may turn into terrible Omen.
    Apr 30 7:45 PM | Link | Comment!
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    Mar 14, 2012
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    Dec 20, 2011
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