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  • Using Put/Call Open Interest To Predict The Rest Of The Week [View article]
    Thanks Richard. I find that when calls and puts stack up at one strike, that price tends to be "sticky."
    Nov 14 10:50 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Writing Put Options On Microsoft [View article]
    This strategy isn't as risk free as you state. If MSFT drops to $25, you'd be sitting on a big paper loss because writing puts is not different than being long the stock. And if MSFT rallies to $35, you don't participate. Your profit would only be 76 cents.
    Oct 16 09:27 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Using Put/Call Open Interest To Predict The Rest Of The Week [View article]
    Hi Eric,

    The theory is that the dumb money are option buyers and the smart money are option sellers, so when I say the market often magically moves to cause the most pain, I should say "cause the most pain for Joe Sixpack retail trader."

    To your point about the numbers not being useful because all four ETFs closed well below their max pain levels, yes that happened. I've been writing this report for several years, and only twice have the numbers been off. Every other time the max pain levels were dead on. So they work most of the time, but when they're off, they're way off. Hey, nothing works 100% of the time.

    Jason
    Nov 21 09:02 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Using Put/Call Open Interest To Predict The Rest Of The Week [View article]
    You are right. This type of analysis works most of the time, but when it doesn't work, it's laughable how bad things turn out. Such is the current situation.
    Nov 14 05:25 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Writing Put Options On Microsoft [View article]
    Yes of course, but I was specifically talking about a move down. If MSFT drops to $25, you collect a little premium, but you're sitting on a $4 loss. This is the type of strategy that works great until it doesn't, and when it doesn't, you can lose a bunch. One big loss will wipe out several months of successfully selling puts.
    Oct 25 09:51 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Microsoft Long Call Condor: Profit From Flat Trading [View article]
    Good luck. Personally I don't buy ahead of earnings.
    Oct 17 12:11 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Microsoft Long Call Condor: Profit From Flat Trading [View article]
    Yeah and there are certainly a lot of headwinds out there. This trade is far from being a no brainer.
    Oct 17 12:10 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Microsoft Long Call Condor: Profit From Flat Trading [View article]
    Admittingly this strategy has a couple hurdles. 1) Commission are high because there are four legs. 2) The max profit potential is not great, so your risk/reward isn't great...especially when considering commissions. 3) The passage of time is need for max profitability to be hit, and that's risky in today's market where headwinds are everywhere, and major news can hit at any time.
    Oct 15 11:47 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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