Contributor since: 2009
BEA, there is no mention of their variable annuity and managed care exposure either. Genworth might be cheap and might survive…but the risks are barely discussed in this article.
Sorry you think that Caiman. I guess a direct quote from the 20F was too difficult to handle in a constructive way "considering" you expertise.
Caiman, I really don't want to be an ass, but I couldn't find anything about goodwill included in Tier 1. These are very standardized measures worldwide so actually I would be curious to find an example where it isn't so. Can you be more precise? And yes, I did read them before but I may have miss something. Some of these things can be hidden in footnotes or long paragraphs.
Sorry to bother Caiman. Can you be more specific with the paragraph? I have not been lucky finding anything about Tier1/goodwill in either of those fillings.
10K: "Our Basel capital adequacy ratios are calculated EXCLUDING goodwill, in accordance with the Basel II standardized approach (provided by the “International Convergence of Capital Measurement and Capital Standards—A Revised Framework Comprehensive Version” issued by the Basel Committee on Banking Supervision from the Bank for International Settlements)."
With their large guarantees ("ungodly risk" - Buffett), high leverage at Corporate, and just OK RBC of the subs, is not that obvious a buy as AIG. They have a very strong P&C business but still. At least for me, their disclosures in the 10K of sensibilities to interest rate impact and S&P variations made me confident enough for a small position but I would not go all in as he did with AIG,
Tom, have you seen information about The Hartford risk-based capital / RBC?
I cannot find anything on their presentations or 10K. Should I go to the statutory report maybe?
Also, have you seen any good analyst report on the company?
Before anyone takes this post as an endorsement of RIMM and SHLD, it is not. Seeking Alpha changed the title and butchered the post. Here is the original.
That is a good question and I do not know the answer because I bought the common. There is a link in the fourth part ("loose ends") to the prefs prospectus
It seems that dividend is increased in case of a change of control. Also the prefs are redeemable, that aligns the incentive of the new owner to call them.
If they keep buying back share at the same $1.1B of last Q that is enough catalyst for me. Dividends can wait.
Thanks MOI that is a great starting point for someone just initiating his analysis of the industry ... like me. Do you have the Bridgepoint preez from the Ira Sohn conference?
While they have large NOLs, so they do not have to pay a dividend, they can reinvest the capital they already have at very high ROIs, as most of their peers are showing. At the moment they reestablish the dividend they can raise capital at much higher prices, as NCT, and others, demonstrated beginning of this year.
The last time I checked, it was a expensive compared to some of its peers. Very little FCF to support the high book value they are claiming especially when vacancy rates on the owned real estate is closing on the national averages.
You meand the reestablishment of the common dividends? You might want to check part 2 for more details of what I think of NCT
Well, the did not post two of the four part. Here is the whole series:
Part 1: a Graham stock wrapped in a mistery
Part 2: the mistery
Part 3: management team
Part 4: loose ends
SL Green sale + CDO 2006 distributions + distribution from Realty agreed in March 2010 extension - pref buybacks - SG&A - payment March 2011 extension
I do not know why SA did not publish part 2. Here it is for the ones that are interested with part 3 and probably 4 coming.
I do not know what is Glen trying to do with this (...). I do not even know what to call it. It is not research or substantiated opinion. Noise maybe?
He used to be a smart guy and know his circle of competence. Then he got into AHR, DJSP, CCME, macro opinions, ... and we lost him.
Glen, this is an intervention.
Todd, I mean that Gramercy is a REIT so it will eventually pay its FCF in dividends.
First, they will have to restore the preferred equity dividends and that should be of some help. The common equity dividend will take some time, because of the large NOLs, but it is not going to be forever.
You need to dive into the supplemental package and notes to financial statements. More details in part three.
1. End of negotiations dee-in-lieu foreclosure
2. Possible CDO bond repurchase
3. Publishing delinquent 10-K and 10-Q
4. Possible reestablishment of preferreds dividend
Great Response!
Looks like a great opportunity and loved the analysis. At the same time, Buffett avoids frictional businesses like Kaplan. He has avoided Life and Health insurance for that same reason. Anyway, great idea.
Cash flow, cash flow, cash flow.
NCT is cheap, but not as cheap as you imply. Plus you show no understanding of the industry sharing ratios that are heavily influenced by one time gains.
Toby, do you really see benefits of being larger in this industry? What are those?
Jae, we have not talked much lately but that does not mean I am not keeping track of your progress, copying some of your ideas, and cheering your successes.
There is an old interview where you said that managing money was not one of your goals. Also I remember thinking that time that you probably were going to change your mind: you had the character and the work ethic, you just needed the self confidence. I am glad you found it and that others have recognize your capabilities.
And that does not even include that most maturities are in 2017 and 2013.
Ross, you are not including the parking properties. They did not have problems in 2006 to refinance SOME of their buildings to buy the OC properties when cap rates were in the 6%.
For top notch properties, and there are few like MPG's, cap rates are back to 2006 levels. And some like USBank Tower were not even refinanced.