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PlanMaestro

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  • Deep Value Shopping Season: Part I [View article]
    The preferred has better protection though


    On Dec 16 08:13 AM PlanMaestro wrote:

    > Well I think MPG could be a 7x to 8x at these prices.
    Dec 16 08:14 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Deep Value Shopping Season: Part I [View article]
    Well I think MPG could be a 7x to 8x at these prices.


    On Dec 15 09:08 PM johnny inca wrote:

    > i don't see mpg vs mpg-a as close at all. With MPG-A you could still
    > quadruple your money.
    Dec 16 08:13 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Deep Value Shopping Season: Part I [View article]
    User, have you heard anything about TSFG coastal properties?


    On Dec 15 11:44 AM User 376368 wrote:

    > Plan,
    >
    > crbc and tsfg are very good picks IMO. I used to own crbc but currently
    > only in TSFG.
    >
    > TSFG share count is 215million but CRBC is 396mill. So CRBC is selling
    > half the price of crbc with the same NPAs, Loan reserves, better
    > TBV etc.
    >
    > TSFG problem is there is uncertainty over their capital plan, if
    > they dont dilute a lot u are looking 2x or 3x share price in a second.
    Dec 15 02:26 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Deep Value Shopping Season: Part I [View article]
    I also like the preferreds, as far I remember they are commulative and already have like $3 in arrearages (sp?). The decision between preferred vs common is a close one.


    On Dec 15 12:20 PM johnny inca wrote:

    > The play with maguire is the preferreds (MPG-A), not MPG.
    Dec 15 02:17 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Turnaround Cases: Penn Traffic [View article]
    There is a typo, it should read: a company valued at $1.5 million (instead of $15 million). Waiting for the docket to have more information on their assets.
    Nov 25 05:13 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Turnaround Cases: Penn Traffic [View article]
    I do not have a position, and I am not recommending the stock. But anyway here is my source, last 10K:

    ITEM 2. PROPERTIES

    We follow the general industry practice of leasing the majority of our retail store locations. We own 17 and lease 66 of the stores that we operate. The leased stores are held under leases expiring from calendar years 2009 to 2020, excluding option periods. In addition, we sublease 15 stores to independent operators and sublease all or a portion of 18 of our current and closed retail locations. During the upcoming fiscal year 2010, the leases on fourteen of our retail stores will expire; thirteen of these lease agreements have renewal options. The Company expects that it will renew the leases associated with stores that are currently operating.

    We own two shopping centers that contain company-owned or independent stores. We lease operating distribution centers in Syracuse, New York and DuBois, Pennsylvania, and a closed distribution facility in Jamestown, New York.


    On Nov 25 12:53 PM Danny K. wrote:

    > "It still owns 17 stores and 2 shopping centers whose value is not
    > reflected in the books, with a market value probably north of $50
    > million."
    >
    > Your facts are off (old information, probably), but I'm not going
    > to beat up on you too much since there isn't much information available
    > on Penn Traffic ("PT"). I don't think PT owns much of anything anymore.
    > The real estate were sold a few years ago in sale-leaseback and it's
    > last major asset, the supply contract to the Big-M stores they franchise
    > was sold to C&S this year. Big Bear was a complete boondoggle,
    > taking it from 80 stores and Number 1 market share, to being liquidated
    > and being only able to sell 11 prime leases.
    >
    > The reason for Big Bear's downfall was simple: Inordinately long
    > line waits, cheapening of perishables and "sale" prices higher the
    > competition's regular prices. Big Bear was much like Target in that
    > they were the area's slightly upmarket grocer much like Giant Eagle
    > is. That's usually a formula for success, except when management
    > doesn't understand how to run a store like that.
    >
    > Bottom line is: I think you have inadvertently misled people. The
    > carcass of this roadkill has already been picked dry. There is zero
    > liquidation value.
    Nov 25 05:09 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Accounting for Losses at BofA and Fannie [View article]
    If you have been following Hempton his point is that Fannie and Freddie are being stolen from their shareholders with overly conservative accounting. He is using Bank of America only as an example.

    Freddie in particular is printing money in a pre-provision basis and has substantial reserves. Why not let them provision as everyone elses do?
    Nov 7 11:23 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Did Value Investor Mark Sellers Over-Value PRXI? [View instapost]
    Interesting situation Jim. However it is not that PRXI has gone back to court. It appealed a district court veredict, the court was positive on the issue of the 1987 artifacts awarded by a French court. Now it is back in the district court to reach agreement on convenants or compensation on the 1993 artifacts.

    Now, the interesting question is how much margin of safety this artifacts really provided. When they got into cash flow problems in March they could not find appropriate financing and Sellers had to step up through a convertible. I think this is fare warning on how much hidden assets and even cash (Premier had plenty a year ago) can actually protect in a real stretch.
    Oct 28 09:21 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Travel Centers of America: Rare Value Investing Opportunity [View article]
    Fair enough, thanks Arohan.
    Sep 14 06:19 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Travel Centers of America: Rare Value Investing Opportunity [View article]
    Arohan, I think it is problematic to recommend buying this stock at the 6s and I am not sure you grasped the risks or the economics of the business. This was part of my reasoning when I bought at lower prices, and check the comments to the last part to the series:

    variantperceptions.wor.../
    variantperceptions.wor.../
    variantperceptions.wor.../
    variantperceptions.wor.../
    variantperceptions.wor.../
    Sep 14 11:54 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • What Stories Aren't Being Told? [View article]
    Your point on the GSEs still has value even after John Hempton's coments. He thinks that the preferred is the one that has value. If you follow his calculation the stock maybe has a little but not that much.

    variantperceptions.wor.../
    Sep 11 10:48 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Constellation Energy: A Good Trade for a Natural Gas Rebound [View article]
    Got it.
    Sep 8 08:04 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Constellation Energy: A Good Trade for a Natural Gas Rebound [View article]
    I do not think that he missed it. It is right there in paragraph DEBT. However, I am not so sure about the 50-70M in free cash flow. My number is closer to 35-40M per year at this natgas prices.

    Pakiya, you appeared as the third most active contribution to VIC. Was this idea really that controvertial?
    Sep 8 05:24 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Constellation Energy: A Good Trade for a Natural Gas Rebound [View article]
    The harder the fall, the stronger the rebound. And btw IT look like you move markets at least for a while after your posts (GSL, CPD, and now CEP)

    Good post Pakiya.
    Sep 8 03:00 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Economics of Shopping Malls [View article]
    Karl's point about the advantages of single ownership was made by Jane Jacobs more than 40 years ago.
    Sep 2 03:32 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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