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Playing the Ponzi
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Why “Playing the Ponzi”? I view the entire monetary and financial system as something of a Ponzi scheme. Starting with currency that is created as debt, and running straight through a global economic model that is based on infinite growth in a finite world. This won’t end well. I’d go a step... More
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Playing the Ponzi
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  • S&P Update

    I haven't said anything about the S&P in ages because nothing interesting has happened. SPY is still within its rising wedge. It has found consistent resistance around 2100, but has also continued to find support at its rising trendline. This picture remains bearish in my opinion, but a decisive break above 2100 would suggest that the rally has another leg higher. A breakdown here could lead to a waterfall.

    I do remain of the belief that this market is a house of cards. It is a confidence ponzi built on hype and hope. That realization may be very slow in dawning on the majority, but when the realization occurs, I don't think the exit doors will be wide enough to allow for a tidy exit. I expect a waterfall, and the question will be how much buying power and influence the central banks can assert to sustain the ponzi that they have built.

    (click to enlarge)

    Tags: SPY, SSO, UPRO
    May 12 10:57 AM | Link | Comment!
  • Time To Short Herbalife (HLF)?

    I have long been interested in shorting Herbalife (NYSE:HLF) for fundamental reasons. But I don't like to trade fundamentals, and so I was quite pleased to see the chart of HLF scream short this week. The stock spiked over 10% yesterday before selling off in the afternoon. The selling has continued early today. We'll see how the rest of the week plays out, but right now it looks like a giant "bearish wick" (both daily (yesterday) and weekly) at the 200 day moving average and downward resistance trendline. Seems like a good spot to short.

    (click to enlarge)

    Tags: HLF
    Mar 24 12:03 PM | Link | Comment!
  • Rally Caps Back On?

    It looks like it is time to bounce again. This is the adjusted rising wedge in SPY. This current bounce appears to be taking place where the adjusted support looks to be. I am tired of this game.. but it appears the S&P is ready to cycle through another rally mode. Global economic data looks terrible to me, but the stock market(s) disconnected from economic data a few year ago in my opinion. So rallying despite bad data is nothing new. I have entered some long positions, but am mostly a bemused bystander by now as I believe we are well into bubble territory.

    (click to enlarge)

    Tags: SPY, SSO
    Mar 16 11:53 AM | Link | Comment!
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