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Playing the Ponzi
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Why “Playing the Ponzi”? I view the entire monetary and financial system as something of a Ponzi scheme. Starting with currency that is created as debt, and running straight through a global economic model that is based on infinite growth in a finite world. This won’t end well. I’d go a step... More
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Playing the Ponzi
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  • S&P And Nasdaq Rejected At Longer Term Resistance

    Here is a look at the longer term resistance that the S&P is facing, as I see it.

    (click to enlarge)

    The resistance is even clearer on the Nasdaq.

    (click to enlarge)

    Perhaps even more troubling for the QQQ chart is that critical support on its rising wedge pattern will soon be at hand.

    Disclosure: I am short QQQ.

    Additional disclosure: I also own SPY puts.

    Tags: SPY, QQQ
    Oct 10 3:27 PM | Link | Comment!
  • Doji Star In S&P Futures

    Despite the promise of endless liquidity from the Federal Reserve, and similarly aggressive plans from other Central Banks, the U.S. equity markets have struggled to push higher. While there have been some bearish warning signs (many noted here in my daily notes from the likes of Chris Kimble), last Friday the S&P futures (/ES) provided what looks like a "doji star"; a common topping pattern.

    (click to enlarge)

    Many of the other S&P proxies (like SPX and SPY) don't show the pattern since their hours are different, but I thought it worth noting. Doji stars are typically short term indicators, so its presence isn't cataclysmic... but it is worth noting. A break of the S&P's recent trend line - which we are fast approach - would be even more telling.

    Oct 09 11:01 AM | Link | Comment!
  • What Can We Expect From QE3?

    With QE3 possibly on deck, let's see how the last 3 years of QE have fared.

    Charts say it all.

    Treasuries first:

    (click to enlarge)

    Then stocks:

    (click to enlarge)

    The Bernanke claims QE is done to lower interest rates, but it has had exactly the opposite effect. This is a useful observation for two reasons:

    1) It confirms that asset prices (stocks, housing, "risk" assets) are the target, not lower Treasury yields. Saying "lower rates" is just something the mainstream media can glom onto as vaguely sensible logic.

    2) It confirms that Fed speak and Fed action are not at all the same thing. The Fed says whatever it thinks will serve its end goal, with truth as a routine casualty.

    Tags: TLT, TBT, TBF
    Sep 12 4:40 PM | Link | Comment!
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