Seeking Alpha

Playing the Ponzi's  Instablog

Playing the Ponzi
Send Message
Why “Playing the Ponzi”? I view the entire monetary and financial system as something of a Ponzi scheme. Starting with currency that is created as debt, and running straight through a global economic model that is based on infinite growth in a finite world. This won’t end well. I’d go a step... More
My blog:
Playing the Ponzi
View Playing the Ponzi's Instablogs on:
  • S&P range - where next?

    have a foot in each (Bear/Bull) camp at the moment... on one hand, the S&P clearly broke down from a rising (bearish) wedge earlier this month. Pronounced relative weakness from emerging markets, junk bond markets and commodities leads me to believe that U.S. equities are pricing in a very optimistic reality relative to those other markets. I suspect that U.S. equities are mis-priced and will have to adjust downward in the coming months. But if 2012 follows the pattern of the previous two years, we may have one more new high yet to come. So what comes next? A run to new highs or a realization of deflationary pressures?

    There appears to be a fairly delineated range we can establish from over the last couple months. We are testing the top end of the range today. It's possible (likely?) that a break above recent highs can propel the market to re-test its old highs or even establish new ones before more pronounced weakness emerges in the summer. Hourly ES (e-Mini S&P Futures) chart below:

    (click to enlarge)

    Tags: SPY, SSO, SDS
    Apr 17 12:15 PM | Link | Comment!
  • AAPL's Epic Run Finally Ends

    It was a matter of time… and it appears that the time is now upon us. AAPL has officially broken its steep 2012 uptrend. I'm not sure how fall it falls from here, but it appears - especially with (now) three straight days of significant underperformance - that AAPL's epic 2012 run is at an end. My own feeling is that it can fall further than most expect, but we'll see. I may see with some puts in hand.

    ***UPDATE: Rather than purchase puts, I just got old-fashioned short north of $600. Test of 50 SMA coming up around $665 or so. 200 SMA is in the mid-400′s. AAPL continues its streak of under-performing the larger market. Hot money in, hot money out… - I'm last copying this to S.A., but had posted this on my blog Friday.

    Disclosure: I am short AAPL.

    Tags: AAPL
    Apr 16 1:59 PM | Link | Comment!
  • Was S&P Breakdown A Teaser?

    The strong equity rally of the last two days has broken the short term downtrend. The relative weakness of other "risk" assets (like junk bonds, emerging markets, commodities) makes me think that a deeper leg down is on the way, but in the shorter term could we make new highs? If we are following the recipe of the last the two years, which appears to be reasonably likely, given the Central Bank fuel that is in place again this year, a new high could indeed be in the cards.

    In the chart below, I've highlight the initial pullback in red. In each case, the breakdown occurred from a rising (bearish) wedge. In 2010, it occurred in January-February. In 2011, it occurred in early March. This year, it was early April. In each of the past two years, high was made in late April-early May. In each of the last two years, the market has gone on to finish a Head-and Shoulders pattern through the summer. Are we in for a repeat performance?

    (click to enlarge)

    Apr 12 3:41 PM | Link | Comment!
Full index of posts »
Latest Followers


More »

Latest Comments

Posts by Themes
Instablogs are Seeking Alpha's free blogging platform customized for finance, with instant set up and exposure to millions of readers interested in the financial markets. Publish your own instablog in minutes.