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  • 10% Yields Available In HY CEFs [View article]
    Certainly a 7.33% yield for the HY index is low on a historic basis, which has encouraged this bubble talk, but a 550 spread is well above historical averages, which is why I deconstructed those components. I think the spread component is sufficient compensation for forward defaults. I worry about high yield when we are heading towards a recessionary environment and EBITDA growth begins to fall (and leveragae begins to rise) across HY issuers. We are not there yet, so the cycle probably has some legs if oil stabilizes. There will be a time when HY looks unattractive, but stocks will similarly be unattractive too.
    Dec 18, 2014. 06:08 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 10% Yields Available In HY CEFs [View article]
    Yes - the NAV declines have been caused by the market move, and if HY bonds recover (as they did today) you could see NAV gains and potentially the discount narrow
    Dec 18, 2014. 06:04 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 10% Yields Available In HY CEFs [View article]
    Jazznut - PCEF will have a variety of closed-end funds outside of specifically the HY space, but point well taken for income investors looking for diversified closed end exposure
    Dec 18, 2014. 06:03 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 10% Yields Available In HY CEFs [View article]
    Thanks dbdaw - the PIMCO funds are usually classified as multi-sector, allowing them to invest across sectors and not specifically within HY bonds, which is why they may not have hit my screen. I also deleted some funds trading at large premiums to NAV, which could have excluded some PIMCO funds given their historic tendency to trade at a premium
    Dec 18, 2014. 06:02 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • 5 Simple Ways To Beat The Market: Part 5 Of 5 [View article]
    Momentum works over short intervals (i.e. winning stocks continue to win in the short-run) and the contrarian nature of equal weighting works over longer holding periods. For more information, see... http://seekingalpha.co...
    Dec 14, 2014. 08:48 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • 5 Simple Ways To Beat The Market: Part 5 Of 5 [View article]
    Thanks Augustus - I think the early underperformance was that capitalization-weighted technology stocks were pulling ahead (before eventually correcting). The aim of this series was for "buy and hold" investors, but I will do some work on switching strategies with these five indices
    Dec 13, 2014. 08:33 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 5 Simple Ways To Beat The Market: Part 5 Of 5 [View article]
    I have never looked at this before, but will have to do some research on it
    Dec 13, 2014. 08:31 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 5 Simple Ways To Beat The Market: Part 5 Of 5 [View article]
    Thanks Indexor - I did note that in the fourth article, hinting that the factor tilt in my fifth article might be a factor to its outperformance, but did not end up addressing this fact directly, which is an omission - thanks
    Dec 13, 2014. 08:31 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 5 Simple Ways To Beat The Market: Part 5 Of 5 [View article]
    Thanks John
    Dec 13, 2014. 08:29 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • 5 Simple Ways To Beat The Market: Part 5 Of 5 [View article]
    Thanks Scoots
    Dec 13, 2014. 08:29 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 5 Simple Ways To Beat The Market: Part 3 Of 5 [View article]
    Augustus - I certainly agree that SPHB/SPLV is a good market timing tool. I wrote an article in early 2013 about a momentum strategy between the two that doubled the performance of the S&P 500 over time:

    http://seekingalpha.co...
    Dec 13, 2014. 08:26 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • 5 Simple Ways To Beat The Market: Part 1 Of 5 [View article]
    Thanks for the research - I am showing post-Banz small-cap results as well, which do show alpha, so I think that this deserves some further investigation. Certainly, it matters what you call "risk." I have witnessed a "size premium" in credit markets as well, so I certainly believe that there is some merit to the size argument, but am always interested in dissenting opinions. Let me check and see if there are any other small cap skeptics and get back to you with what I find.
    Dec 10, 2014. 07:08 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 5 Simple Ways To Beat The Market: Part 1 Of 5 [View article]
    Thank you for the kind words
    Dec 10, 2014. 07:03 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 5 Simple Ways To Beat The Market: Part 2 Of 5 [View article]
    I will have to look at RZV. In this series, I was trying to discuss the two factor tilts separately, but point well taken.

    My favorite metric for individual companies is EV/FCF. See this 2012 article on the topic. These 10 companies collectively have done very well since I wrote this article:

    http://seekingalpha.co...


    When I think about the market valuation in general, I am usually thinking about earnings yield less the 10-yr Treasury, and trying to frame that earnings differential versus risk factors that may be impacting valuations in the current period and in the historical time series. Attached is an example:

    http://seekingalpha.co...

    This article is getting dated. It is worth a refresh given the expansion in equity multiples and the movement in Treasury yields.
    Dec 10, 2014. 07:03 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • 5 Simple Ways To Beat The Market: Part 2 Of 5 [View article]
    Thanks tmow - was today's topic in your list of factors?
    Dec 10, 2014. 06:56 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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426 Comments
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