Seeking Alpha
View as an RSS Feed

Ploutos  

View Ploutos' Comments BY TICKER:
Latest  |  Highest rated
  • The Oil Trade Update [View article]
    Taipan - I think you have to compare the strategy to the total return of buy-and-hold USO over that period, which is around -40%. I am not suggesting the oil-mattress trade as a strategy, but using it as a guide to knowing when to own energy-related assets.
    Feb 19, 2015. 07:50 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A View From The Top: 3 Looks At Market Multiples [View article]
    This is great Stephen - thanks for sharing - I encourage all of the readers of this article to take a look at this paper.
    Feb 16, 2015. 02:37 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A View From The Top: 3 Looks At Market Multiples [View article]
    I do not believe we are off to the races again. We have run pretty hard for a long ways. Let's call it a more measured pace from here.
    Feb 16, 2015. 01:13 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A View From The Top: 3 Looks At Market Multiples [View article]
    Thanks for the comments and valid points David. Forward earnings estimates are subjective, and we are using different sources, which could account for some of the discrepancy.

    Certainly CAPE is sending a worrying signal, which is why it was included here. I would not paint the bond market with such a wide brush. Treasuries have historically done quite well when the stock market has done poorly as this flight to quality instrument rises in value in times of stress. Corporate bond markets, especially down in quality, would weaken if we were to see a major market correction.

    I very much agree that Dr. Shiller is very bright, and I often read his far-ranging material. Thanks again for reading and commenting.
    Feb 16, 2015. 12:43 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A View From The Top: 3 Looks At Market Multiples [View article]
    Scott - I will always be structurally long domestic equities. I might reduce my weight to the equity risk premium, but will never be completely out of the market. More money has been lost being out of the market than during the correction. I also have tax lots of SPY purchased during the global financial crisis that have nearly tripled in value, making me slow to exit given the long-term capital gains that would need to be paid.
    Feb 16, 2015. 12:23 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • A View From The Top: 3 Looks At Market Multiples [View article]
    1 day before the crash - that is a tough ask. I do believe that you should lower your return expectations. If multiples cannot expand further, then market returns are going to be limited to earnings growth, which is forecast to be in the high single digits. You can move your portfolio up in quality, taking less risk with the hope that your portfolio holds up better if returns suffer. You can also look to rotate some of your portfolio to markets that have underperformed the domestic equity market (e.g. a tilt towards Europe or EM). You can also look to potentially rotate to industries that have similarly underperformed (e.g. energy) where the downside could be less pronounced given the drawdown we have already seen. I suggested HY bonds in mid-December, which have done very well. Thanks for reading and commenting.
    Feb 16, 2015. 12:19 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Dividend Aristocrats + Equal Weighting Has Beat Market For 14 Of 15 Years [View article]
    Your question is answered above - thanks for reading.
    Feb 9, 2015. 09:41 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Dividend Aristocrats + Equal Weighting Has Beat Market For 14 Of 15 Years [View article]
    People would certainly have different results based on the timing of when they invest their cashflows. In this article, I am trying to show the outperformance, on average, over time. You are right, the returns are based from time 0, which in this case is beginning of 2000.
    Feb 9, 2015. 09:41 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Dividend Aristocrats + Equal Weighting Has Beat Market For 14 Of 15 Years [View article]
    David - these are index returns, so the constituents are changed when they fail to meet the index eligibility requirements (e.g. a dividend reduction). The index information is available at: http://bit.ly/TP3UYO
    Feb 9, 2015. 07:19 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Lecture On Yield [View article]
    Thanks for the follow-up analysis TrendXplorer
    Feb 8, 2015. 05:26 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Dividend Aristocrats + Equal Weighting Has Beat Market For 14 Of 15 Years [View article]
    Please see the earlier version of the article, linked at its conclusion. In the article, there are cumulative total returns for from 12/31/1989 through 9/30/2013, which demonstrate the long-run outperformance of both strategies. Additionally, both EW and DA outperformed the S&P 500 in 2014, so that should give you representative relative index returns. Thanks for reading, and offering thoughtful comments.
    Feb 7, 2015. 05:35 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Dividend Aristocrats + Equal Weighting Has Beat Market For 14 Of 15 Years [View article]
    I disagree that the outperformance would go away. Yes, there is an expense ratio difference, which you note. I used index data because it has the longest backcast time series. The net returns of the ETFs are simply not available for a long enough time horizon. As I note in the article, the outperformance of the combination of the two indices is 567bp per year over 15 years, which dwarfs the expense ratio differences.
    Feb 7, 2015. 05:31 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Dividend Aristocrats + Equal Weighting Has Beat Market For 14 Of 15 Years [View article]
    Good observation - I addressed this in the article - the Aristocrats have outperformed in part I believe because of the market's preference for high quality companies post-crisis and investors' hunt for yield in a low yield environment. I believe that combining the two factor tilts, which outperform in different market environments, gives a better chance of outperforming prospectively
    Feb 7, 2015. 02:07 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Dividend Aristocrats + Equal Weighting Has Beat Market For 14 Of 15 Years [View article]
    SDY replicates a slightly different index - the S&P High Yield Dividend Aristocrats, which draws from the S&P 1500, and has a 20-yr look back policy. When I first wrote this article, I referenced SDY, which is very strongly correlated to the Dividend Aristocrats index. When NOBL came out as an ETF that specifically replicated the DA Index, I decided to use NOBL. Results are going to be very similar, but when I talk about factor tilts from the S&P 500, I prefer to use the index that draws only from those 500 constituents.
    Feb 7, 2015. 09:34 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • A Lecture On Yield [View article]
    One of the first articles I wrote on the site looked at a switching strategy between Treasuries and equities. I have shown the data more frequently in equity/fixed income momentum articles. I will try and get an updated version of this article out this weekend if possible. I have the data - just need to polish it up a bit.
    Feb 5, 2015. 06:55 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
524 Comments
293 Likes