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Portfolio Management 101  

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  • Mr. Market Is Trying To Send Us A Message About Omega Healthcare [View article]
    Thanks for reading and commenting. Good luck
    May 2, 2015. 10:49 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Mr. Market Is Trying To Send Us A Message About Omega Healthcare [View article]
    Oh, and in full disclosure .....my daughter is actually 8.5 months old, not 8 months. Thanks Lisa, for reminding me. Don't forget Monday is pink day at the daycare.
    May 2, 2015. 07:06 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Mr. Market Is Trying To Send Us A Message About Omega Healthcare [View article]
    Not at all richjoy, not what I meant regarding the detail, only that you pointed out a detail that I didn't focus on as material to the topic I was presenting. Thanks again for pointing it out though. Will be more careful next time or make sure I don't include any irrelevant information unless it is accurate. You do need to find estimated dividends, which could stem from estimated FFO. If future FFO is expected to change, we can deduce that dividends will also change along with it. That's what I meant about that. How do you calculate forward yield? current dividend x 4? Basic enough but can underestimate the yield no?
    May 2, 2015. 07:02 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Mr. Market Is Trying To Send Us A Message About Omega Healthcare [View article]
    Aha, I know why the dividend yield is off. The last dividend of $0.36 was prorated and not a full quarter's dividend. If you annualize that number and divide by the stock price you get roughly 4.2%. Might explain why all the other websites are off too. Will update and correct. BTW, the premise of the article was not the dividend yield of the stock but the price decline but thank you all for focusing in on such details. Thanks for reading and commenting.
    May 2, 2015. 04:22 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Mr. Market Is Trying To Send Us A Message About Omega Healthcare [View article]
    Hi Mike, where are you getting that yield? There needs to be a forward FFO estimate in order to get a forward 1 year yield, and if the FFO estimate is different on each website, then the forward dividend yield will also be different on each website. I used JP Morgan estimates for all 4 of the healthcare REITs listed. Thanks for commenting.
    May 2, 2015. 01:00 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Mr. Market Is Trying To Send Us A Message About Omega Healthcare [View article]
    Hi all, I saw a comment earlier that now I can't see for some reason (already wrote to SA) about the EMH. The hypothesis states that it is impossible to outperform the market, whereas I stated that the average investor underperforms the market. My comment was also incorporating a variety of studies that the average investor underperformance the market for a variety of reasons, some of which are skill-based and others are psychological. In any case, whomever made the comment pointing out the mistake is correct. My apologies for not elaborating. Thanks for reading.
    May 1, 2015. 10:00 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Mr. Market Is Trying To Send Us A Message About Omega Healthcare [View article]
    Hi RedQueen, yes, I completely agree, the market is telling us something about both of these companies. In the case of HCP, the fact that their largest tenant is having financial difficulties and is now being investigated by the department of justice has a lot to do with that. http://seekingalpha.co...

    As for OHI, the Ventas announcement and the new issue are the only reasons I could find, but in some ways, they don't seem to be enough. I think there is more to the story that we're not seeing. I could be wrong, but until I exhaust my analysis, I'd be cautious in the short-term.

    Thank you very much for commenting.
    May 1, 2015. 09:54 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Does AbbVie's Acquisition Of Pharmacyclics Make Cents? [View article]
    LOL, OK then, thanks dkohler for reading and commenting.
    May 1, 2015. 10:19 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Mr. Market Is Trying To Send Us A Message About Omega Healthcare [View article]
    You're welcome Neri, thanks for reading and commenting.
    May 1, 2015. 08:52 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Mr. Market Is Trying To Send Us A Message About Omega Healthcare [View article]
    tiki, historical analysis has shown that when rates initially rise, REITs get hit, but then recover strongly over the following 6-9 months. 2013 was a great example of that. Thanks for commenting.
    May 1, 2015. 08:51 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Mr. Market Is Trying To Send Us A Message About Omega Healthcare [View article]
    ppars, I like OHI. It is the largest pure-play SNF REIT and until recently was the only one. Based on the news alone, I probably would have thought nothing of it. The market is big enough so that even if Care Capital Properties (SpinCo) is competing directly with OHI, the impact should be small. But yet the market reacted very negatively to the news and when this happens, it gives me a bit more reason to be cautious...perhaps I'm missing something. I am watching it closely and maybe the pullback has to do with the delay in mergers, but if WE all know this, don't you think everyone knows this. The delays are now public knowledge, and theoretically embedded in the price. I'm still looking for more answers but until I do, I prefer to proceed cautiously. Maybe it does end up being a great buying opportunity in hindsight, but jumping in without knowing does have a hint of speculation. If you're a very long term investor, I don't see anything wrong with buying today. OHI will be fine. The question is whether it will outperform Care Capital. Maybe that's the message Mr. Market is trying to telll us. That investors have more confidence in the upside of Care Capital relative to OHI. It's just odd to me that OHI is underperforming the peer group based on declines in its stock around two announements. The new issue I completely understand...the Ventas announcement makes me scratch my head. To answer your question, if I have any breath left....yes, it could continue to drop along with the rest of the REIT group, and yes it could underperform Care Capital. But it is a good company, absolutely. Have no fear of holding it.
    May 1, 2015. 08:49 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Mr. Market Is Trying To Send Us A Message About Omega Healthcare [View article]
    Yes Big Thunder, thank you for mentioning that.
    May 1, 2015. 08:36 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Mr. Market Is Trying To Send Us A Message About Omega Healthcare [View article]
    Acesfull, you hit the nail on the head. Thanks for reading and commenting.
    May 1, 2015. 08:36 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Mr. Market Is Trying To Send Us A Message About Omega Healthcare [View article]
    Hi 511, yes, all REITs tend to decline in anticipation of rate increases, but OHI has underperformed recently. So you are right in that some of the decline has to do with the general market and REITs specifically, but the underperformance leads me to believe that there is also a specific company driver. We'll see.
    May 1, 2015. 07:13 AM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • This Healthcare REIT Is Cheap, But It May Be Coming Down With The Flu [View article]
    Great point relo, Republican interests may reduce the level of government spending on healthcare.
    Apr 29, 2015. 11:25 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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