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Portfolio Management 101  

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  • The Analysis That Wasn't Worth A Single Cent [View article]
    If that is the magnitude of rate increases, then I agree with you. Do they really think rates are going to rise that much that quickly? And they recommend buying? Hmmm, let me see if I can get a hold of that research report.
    Sep 3, 2015. 07:00 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • MiMedx Might Be The 12th Man On Your Fantasy Football Super Bowl Team [View article]
    Thanks Chris
    Sep 3, 2015. 06:53 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Are Senior Housing REITs Showing Signs Of Bipolarism? [View article]
    Yes, an error. Tickers are similar. I'll correct and also add RIDEA definition. Thanks for asking.
    Sep 2, 2015. 11:29 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Are Senior Housing REITs Showing Signs Of Bipolarism? [View article]
    Occupancy rates are down and building construction is up. Population of 65+ is growing and they are driving US household formation. Which one will win out? That is the question.
    Sep 2, 2015. 11:26 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Not All REITs Are A Good Buy Even When They Go On Sale [View article]
    Good point Guppie, I just submitted an edit providing a high level summary of how I calculated NAV for each REIT. Although the process is proprietary, I hope it provides a good enough explanation. And I agree with your GIGO comment, which applies to even the most profound analysis and calculations. We have to make assumptions and sometimes those assumptions can vary from reality.
    Aug 28, 2015. 08:37 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Not All REITs Are A Good Buy Even When They Go On Sale [View article]
    Good point Guppie...I just submitted an edit briefly explaining the calculation, although most of it is proprietary.
    Aug 28, 2015. 08:33 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The Analysis That Wasn't Worth A Single Cent [View article]
    I haven't read any of the analysis you refer to in this article, however, if the buy recommendation is based on short rates rising slowly (vs. spiking) then I would agree with the Nomura analysis that you cite that that could be good for mREITs.
    Aug 21, 2015. 02:04 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Deep Analysis Of This Mortgage REIT ETF Reveals That Things Aren't Always What They Seem [View article]
    If anyone wants a copy of the excel file showing the monthly changes in REM holdings from 4.2009 to present, send me a message with your email and I'll pass it along.
    Aug 19, 2015. 10:18 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Will Annaly And The iShares Mortgage Real Estate Capped ETF Behave Differently When Rates Rise? [View article]
    Took some digging but I thought your comments were worth following up on. Thanks.
    Aug 19, 2015. 03:00 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Deep Analysis Of This Mortgage REIT ETF Reveals That Things Aren't Always What They Seem [View article]
    Heebee, I'll put NLY on my list. Its usually in my portfolio but I currently have a full allocation to mREITs via AGNC, ARR, BXMT, and BDC's through PSEC. Some of the rate hikes may already be priced in to mREITs and all mREITs have positioned themselves somewhat to the imminent Fed hike. But that doesn't mean that investors won't continue to sell them out of fear. If rates rise slowly, I think mREITs can do quite well.
    George, in regards to high yield, its all about being selective. If you're picking individual names then its easy to determine the credit profile of each issuer. Funds are a different story. Many of them have lots of exposure to energy and they have taken a beating. Defaults haven't been too crazy but many of these energy companies had hedged their output at higher prices but now those hedges have expired. If they can't produce a unit of oil, for example, at a marginal cost that is below the current price of oil, then these companies could start to be hurt by their interest payments. Defaults will rise and high yield funds could be hurt. You want to try to avoid funds with high exposure to energy or trust that the manager has done enough bottom up analysis to hold these positions comfortably. After all, its when something is cheap that money can be made. Energy HY is cheap. Dangerous but cheap. You may want to look at European HY which has less exposure to energy and is benefiting from QE in Europe.
    Aug 18, 2015. 09:59 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Will Annaly And The iShares Mortgage Real Estate Capped ETF Behave Differently When Rates Rise? [View article]
    Seatle, here is a follow up article thanks to your comments...
    http://seekingalpha.co...
    Aug 18, 2015. 10:07 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • A Deep Analysis Of This Mortgage REIT ETF Reveals That Things Aren't Always What They Seem [View article]
    Thank you. But I expect more from myself and I SHOULD have dug deeper before plunging into the previous article.
    Aug 18, 2015. 09:14 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Buying An Undervalued Student Housing REIT Is A Smart Move [View article]
    Thanks hardog.
    Aug 17, 2015. 08:42 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Yuan Devaluation Is Great News For REITs [View article]
    Hi Randy, you can't go wrong with healthcare REITs over the long-term because of the demographic changes going on and the increasing number of aging baby-boomers. I do think there is another leg down for REITs although I don't think it will be as dramatic as in the past because as you mention, some have already come down in anticipation of rate hikes. (probably a bit early) Do realize that many healthcare REITs have longer lease durations so unless the annual elevator clauses allow for decent increases, they will not be able to increase lease rates at levels above inflation (when inflation ever rises). I would guess that is one reason why some healthcare REITs have pulled back already, compared to say, storage REITs that are still hitting 52 month highs. With healthcare REITs, it is also important to know what areas of specialty each REIT has. Medical office buildings have attractive prospects while skilled nursing facilities face supply challenges in some geographic areas. I do agree with you that the Fed may be reluctant to raise rates with the global economy so fragile, but they also risk credibility if they don't. I wouldn't want to be Janet Yellen right now.
    Aug 15, 2015. 12:31 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Yuan Devaluation Is Great News For REITs [View article]
    Hi Randy, of the REITs I have listed on my bloomberg, I don't see that many that are down more than 25% YTD but there are some in the high teens and low 20's. I see quite a few mREITS in that group in addition to a few healthcare REITs. On the other hand, some storage REITs are still hitting new 52 week highs, as are some of the residential apartment REITs. (So which REITs you're referring to is important to know) To answer your question, REITs have certainly been volatile going back to May 2013 when the Fed first mentioned the words 'rate hike' as investors anticipated higher rates. Since then, many REITs have recovered both due to continued improvement in their fundamentals and investors expectations of postponement of rate hikes. I believe there was an initial reaction earlier this year too, which is evident in the outflows from REITs in the last 2 quarters. However, I believe many investors still have their finger on the 'submit' button to enter their sell trades at the first gut feel of a rate hike. With the weaker Yuan and the possibility of it having a disinflationary effect in the US, those investors may postpone those sales even further. Meanwhile, fundamentals continue to improve in many sectors. How long do you wait to determine if the pullback is behind us or if there is still another one ahead? That is a question for you to answer based on your profile, right? I'm a bit of a risk taker and trade somewhat frequently around my core positions. In other words, I hold for the long-term, but will buy and sell to take advantage of price swings. I'm a holder/buyer here because I think there is a bit more upside in REITs before the major pullback. That being said, I do have stop losses in case I'm wrong. If, on the other hand, you're a conservative investor, history has shown that REITs start performing well after the first rate hike. If you fit into the conservative category, therefore, I wait until the fed hikes then start building positions again. Sorry about the long-winded answer. Thanks for reading, commenting, and asking.
    Aug 14, 2015. 04:30 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
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