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Portfolio Management 101

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  • CapLease: Dividend On Track To Keep Growing [View article]
    Bradley, great article!!
    Dec 17 02:43 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • CapLease: Dividend On Track To Keep Growing [View article]
    berloe, REITs have to pay out 90% of taxable income. The payout ratio mentioned in the article is relative to funds from operations(FFO). The 90% rule doesn't apply to FFO but can be another way of analyzing how much of a REITs cash flow is being paid out. The lower the payout ratio, the more likely the dividend is sustainable or can potentially increase.
    Dec 17 02:42 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • CapLease: Dividend On Track To Keep Growing [View article]
    Sure thing. Can you please send the data along with it? It seems the sources we are using have quite different numbers.
    Dec 17 02:27 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • CapLease: Dividend On Track To Keep Growing [View article]
    Dear Bradley, thank you so much for your comment. While I probably should have included a section on risks, the debt/capital or debt/equity ratio is not really a concern for me. The current debt/equity ratio for LSE is 0.44. You mention O and NNN but these are two COMPLETELY different types of REITs. And I found the debt/equity ratio on both of them even higher than LSE. O has a debt/equity ratio of 1.02 while NNN has a debt/equity ratio of 0.67. If we are going to look at one metric as a possible risk, then LSE looks to be the least risky, but of course, I wouldn't just isolate that as the most important risk. In addition, it seems like the trend on debt/equity is best for LSE as it has come down considerably recently from over 2 to the 0.44 where it currently stands. http://bit.ly/ZDVdFS
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    http://bit.ly/ZDVdWn
    While I understand you are very positive on triple-net REITs, as a fellow author, we should both make sure we provide unbiased views and constructive and ACCURATE information in our articles and our comments. Once again, thank you for reading.
    Dec 17 10:44 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Starbucks Not My Cup Of Tea At These Levels [View article]
    Whoa, you've taken my comment out of context. I didn't say Graham's teachings are irrelevant. I did say, I'm not sure those metrics are applicable today. This book was written when many of today's industries didn't exist. And I haven't reviewed the book recently to comment on how a 9% EPS growth equals a 28 PE. That seems like a very high PEG ratio to me, unless someone can explain the reason behind the numbers in table 11-4.
    Dec 8 05:37 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Starbucks Not My Cup Of Tea At These Levels [View article]
    Well, I appreciate the dialog. And yes, I was surprised by yesterdays move. But I do see some resistance at 53.50 and possibly again at 56. As long as the long term story stays intact, I would be willing to go in if it breaks both of those levels. Otherwise, I would feel more comfortable going in closer to 44.

    Elcid, I looked at Table 11-4 and have read the Intelligent Investor many years ago. I'm not sure those metrics are still applicable today and if they have been updated, I'm not quite sure how to put the 9% equals 28PE into context. That seems like a steep price to pay. Thanks for sharing the info.
    Dec 7 02:58 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Starbucks Not My Cup Of Tea At These Levels [View article]
    Andy, my humble opinion is that you didn't see much of a move in the stock because those announcements didn't exceed expectations.
    Dec 6 09:09 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Starbucks Not My Cup Of Tea At These Levels [View article]
    I agree jackoo...the question is how long was that line and was it longer than it was last month and will it be longer next month? And are customers spending more per visit or the same or less? Expectations are what drive stock prices and the problem I see is that expectations are extremely high, as you have clearly expressed. What happens to the stock price if results don't meet your high expectations? There isn't much cushion in the price right now.
    Dec 6 09:08 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Starbucks Not My Cup Of Tea At These Levels [View article]
    Where are you getting the 9 % number? A company with 9% eps growth should be trading way below a PE of 28. At those levels, thePEG ratio would be over 3! Ideally, you would want a PEG ratio less than 1 or not much above it. EPS has to be much higher than 18% for valuations to look reasonable.
    Dec 5 10:19 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Starbucks Not My Cup Of Tea At These Levels [View article]
    Don't misunderstand, I love the company, it's strategy, it's growth prospects...I just think it's already evident I the stock price. If you already own it, that's great, but I wouldn't necessarily jump in just yet.
    Dec 5 10:15 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple's Ecosystem: Strength Or Liability? [View article]
    dtevans1, I completely forgot to mention ibooks. But your point only confirms what I tried to express in the article. Thanks for commenting.
    Nov 16 08:06 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple's Ecosystem: Strength Or Liability? [View article]
    Sorry leivicky, I'm sorry this article didn't answer all of your questions. I believe the comments are the very reason that I think Apple is at an interesting juncture. There are people out there who adamantly feel that Apple's ecosystem is amazing. However, as the recent profit margin erosion and increased market share of Samsung (smartphones), maintaining the ecosystem may be a liability. The truth lies somewhere and may not surface for some time. Also keep in mind that SA editors sometimes ask authors to write a more balanced article. Wasn't necessarily the case here but since it has happened in the past, I went in looking at it from both perspectives and determining whether Apple was an attractive buy right now.
    Nov 15 10:37 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple's Ecosystem: Strength Or Liability? [View article]
    Thanks craighyork.
    Nov 14 03:20 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Constructing A Portfolio Of Mortgage REITs Using A Satellite Approach [View article]
    I echo the comments below on determining the reason for holding these assets to begin with, which is for the income they generate.

    But just for comparison: YTD total returns: AGNC +21.4%, CMO +4.5%, RSO +12.2%, IVR +59%, S&P500 11.8%.

    Last 3 months: AGNC -7%, CMO -11.8%, RSO +3.7%, IVR +6.1%, S&P500 -1.3%%

    The S&P 500 is also down 3.3% over the last month and these mREITs are down anywhere from -2.25% to -6.63%. They don't seem to be plunging any more than the market in general, and they are paying double digit yields.

    If there is an interest in these securities, I would buy on dips and average in to the longer-term position I want to hold.
    Nov 13 03:42 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Armour Residential: How It Manages To Pay A 16% Yield And The Risks Of Investing In It [View article]
    The assets will fall in value just like any fixed income security will fall in value when rates rise. There is an inverse relationship between price and interest rates. Most of the mREITs hedge some or all of this exposure. While CPR may decline as interest rates, the concern is that by this time, the asset yield in the portfolios will be lower than it is today as borrowing costs begin to rise.
    Nov 13 08:41 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
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