Seeking Alpha

portfoliV

View as an RSS Feed
View portfoliV's Comments BY TICKER:
Latest  |  Highest rated
  • Why Apple's Sell-Off Is Good For Investors [View article]
    I was short GMCR near $65 but then I took profits and put some of those profits into a long GMCR position near $22 so there are some losses from the long side. I am long on GMCR on a valuation basis. At $17 the better reason is the high probability of a short squeeze. I am much more bullish on MS short-term by the way since Euro seems to have stabilized.For more info check this out http://bit.ly/Nv9vmY
    Jul 25 02:40 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Trades For The Approaching Euro Strength [View article]
    Your suggestion is very smart actually. That lag you mentioned hadn't occurred to me but it is very logical. The thing about GMCR is that people still evaluate it as momentum stock and since the stock pattern has clearly broken down the momentum investors don't want to deal with it. There is some more info about that here in another article of mine.
    http://bit.ly/MI6Wuc

    The fact however is that GMCR has moved into value category. (Actually the same goes for NTAP mentioned in the article as it is perceived to be a bubble cloud stock where as it is a value stock indeed). When the value side of GMCR becomes apparent there will be huge rally. Then the competitive factors will probably pull down the stock for another sell-off.
    Jul 25 12:07 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Trades For The Approaching Euro Strength [View article]
    CREE is the same logic as GMCR. NTAP is more of a valuation trade.
    Jul 25 11:42 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Trades For The Approaching Euro Strength [View article]
    GMCR is based on it being oversold and a turn in market sentiment will probably initiate a short squeeze. The Euro stabilization will turn the market sentiment positive and oversold stock will rally aggressively.
    Jul 25 11:39 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Buy Cheniere Energy: Natural Gas Exports Present A Huge Opportunity [View article]
    There is no such thing as a fixed margin contract. Their contracts are for delivery amounts, not margins. I haven't gone all in researching this company, I will admit, since I perceive it as a scam. But from what I have researched so far, there is no guarantee against substantial increases in the price of natural gas in the contracts. Even if there is, I'm quite sure there are limits to that. Third parties won't assume the risk of commodity price volatility for you. Otherwise someone would have built an LNG plant already.
    Jul 19 04:49 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Buy Cheniere Energy: Natural Gas Exports Present A Huge Opportunity [View article]
    All it takes is natural gas at $6 for this company to completely get wiped out as far as I know.

    They are basically making a huge one way trade on natural gas staying at near $3 which won't happen because it is an anomaly. Their investment theory is if natural gas stays low they make lots of money and if it doesn't they will just declare bankruptcy.

    The only one with something to lose will be the ones who buy the LNG shares from the open market. They don't have the option of declaring bankruptcy to limit their losses so I don't understand why would an investor buy shares in a company with so much uncertainty and risk. This is a lose-lose trade for the investors since the upside is already in the price.
    Jul 19 04:25 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Capitulation Of LDK Solar Will Mark The Bottom In The Sector [View article]
    Very thorough and reasonable comment jacoba. Thanks for participating in the discussion.

    Would you say that the upside from winners in the sector would be enough to makeup for the bankrupt solar stocks. It seems hard for me to be able to make reasonable profits without being able to add value through some good stock selection. Although I agree that in such a high risk sector as solar to spread out the risk is a good strategy.

    Also what would you say about the comparative effect of the technological advancements by US solar companies as opposed to the prospect of the Chinese to backstop their Chinese solar companies. Which one is better the ability to be backstopped or to have a technological edge over the competitors.
    Jul 11 05:06 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Capitulation Of LDK Solar Will Mark The Bottom In The Sector [View article]
    Cannot agree more and you have just summarized my argument (not the trading one, but the fundamental one) better than I have probably.
    Jul 11 01:52 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Capitulation Of LDK Solar Will Mark The Bottom In The Sector [View article]
    By virtue of balance sheet yes it is in a bad shape. However, since it is the one that is most closest to bankruptcy it will probably be the one that will be backstopped and enjoy the benefits.
    An important note is that the gist of the article is not about LDK as a company it about LDK as a stock.
    Capitulation is all about shorts being squeezed out of their positions. If LDK gets backstopped that is what will happen probably.
    Also I suggested in the article that LDK does have some more downside before it capitulates so the argument is not that LDK is a good company that is just undervalued, it is just not the type of company that Chinese would let fail, in my opinion.
    Jul 11 01:47 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Capitulation Of LDK Solar Will Mark The Bottom In The Sector [View article]
    The balance sheets of many solar stocks are in very bad shape. None of these companies are in a shape to assume more risks than they already have, in my opinion.
    Jul 11 01:43 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Why The Bond Bubble Is Very Dangerous To mREITs And MLPs [View article]
    I would argue that in order for something to be considered a growth investment in should generate capital gains (not dividend income) beyond the market gains.
    MLPs don't seem to fit that concept.
    Wouldn't you agree?
    Jun 21 03:08 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why The Bond Bubble Is Very Dangerous To mREITs And MLPs [View article]
    You are wrong in assuming that infrastructurre projects are free of their financing costs when its completed. MLPs carry a huge debt load and they usually don't pay the principal because it is so cheap to carry debt. So it is not as simple as just as long as the infrastructure project is completed it is all fine. What matters is the spread between the income from the MLP infrastructure projects and the financing costs.
    Jun 21 03:05 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How To Hedge Oil Prices With Natural Gas [View article]
    Thanks for the comment. Glad you find it inetersting. You can use the Follow feature to get the follow-up article about how the trade works out. The trade seems to be still dependent on a positive sentiment in the market. The oil segment is of the trade is very dependent on that. So this might prove to be more volatile than I would have preferred it to be. The contango difference with UNG should be beneficial to make it less volatile though.
    Jun 21 02:50 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 5 Reasons Apple Should Not Depend Too Much On Asia [View article]
    Exactly. After the Chinese story unfolds to its potential there won't be anything left to make a huge difference in the size of the company, in my opinion.
    Also that might be where the market cap gets so large that more inflows don't make much of a difference compared to the size of the market cap.
    Jun 21 02:39 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Great P/E Arbitrage Opportunity [View article]
    Using the options when it is feasible( the implied volatility not too high) limits the downside of the trade.
    As for the ratio of 5X the leverage on the option is about 20X. However the delta of the option is lower than that. The 5X gives the trade somehow a market neutral position also considering KORS is more volatile than PVH.
    Jun 19 03:18 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
113 Comments
39 Likes