Seeking Alpha

Posts At Eventide

 
View as an RSS Feed
View Posts At Eventide's Comments BY TICKER:
Latest  |  Highest rated
  • The Ever-Changing World Of Apple [View article]
    rnsmith:

    I'm using the 5.864 billion share count as of October 10th to be the starting point for the quarter. At that time there were shares pending return to the company from an ASR (accelerated share repurchase program) that began in August as well whatever additional shares Apple repurchased and retired in the December quarter. But the share count will be averaged for the period.

    According to my records, Apple used 5.972 billion as the average fully diluted share count for the September quarter.
    Dec 28, 2014. 09:59 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Ever-Changing World Of Apple [View article]
    Andrew A:

    Thank you for your comment. As I mentioned above, I put more value on the qualitative analysis provided by Wall Street analysts than the price targets or revenue estimates published with the narrative. I consider the narrative provided by Katy Huberty on Apple to be about the best on Wall Street.

    Absent a release date for the Apple Watch, all revenue estimates for the fiscal year as well as price targets from the Wall Street pros will be tentative and subject to significant change.

    There are a number of ways Apple may surprise the Street this fiscal year. Apple’s revenue growth alone this fiscal year may equal or exceed the entire revenue of well over half of the enterprises in the Fortune 500 list.

    There’s plenty of room for analyst revenue, eps and price target revisions as we move through the fiscal year. But the narrative provided by analysts can be helpful in discerning growth trends.
    Dec 28, 2014. 09:52 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Ever-Changing World Of Apple [View article]
    I consider Katy Huberty’s narrative on Apple to be about the best on Wall Street. I put much more value on her qualitative analysis than her price targets. I expect price targets, in general, to rise as we move closer to the release of the Apple Watch and as Apple provides a firm release date for the new product line.
    Dec 28, 2014. 09:22 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Ever-Changing World Of Apple [View article]
    rnsmith:

    The lack of a significant variance between the rate of estimated revenue growth and eps growth also caught my attention. Over the past few years I’ve noticed a trend in which analysts tend to be more conservative on their estimates of the percentage of revenue that flows to the net income line.

    According to the 10-K for FY2014, there was a significant difference in Apple’s fully diluted share count at the end of the September quarter than was reported for the quarter. This is because Apple averages the fully diluted share count for each quarter.

    On October 20, 2014, Apple reported 5.864 billion shares outstanding versus the split-adjusted 6.31 billion shares Apple used in the eps calculations for the December quarter last year.
    Dec 28, 2014. 09:10 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Ever-Changing World Of Apple [View article]
    Luciom:

    My double-digit revenue growth expectation for Europe is for the fiscal year, not just the December quarter.

    Apple deploys currency hedging strategies to mitigate some of the impact of currency fluctuations.

    There are two different exchange rates in play. The UK is among the biggest if not the biggest product market for Apple in Europe. While the GBP has also lost ground against the US Dollar, the currency fluctuation has not been quite as severe as the drop in the value of the Euro.

    In general, economic conditions in the EU have improved year-over-year.

    Network incompatibilities that impacted iPhone sales in Europe in prior years have been addressed with LTE capable iPhones.
    Dec 28, 2014. 09:00 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The Ever-Changing World Of Apple [View article]
    tino1126:

    While I consider Russia a long-term growth opportunity for Apple, I don’t think the recent crash of the Ruble will have a significant impact on the company’s global performance this quarter.
    I do expect a dividend increase to be announced in April. At this time I'm more interested in the number of shares repurchased and the number of shares outstanding at the end of the December quarter than the size of the 2015 dividend increase.
    Dec 28, 2014. 08:28 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Ever-Changing World Of Apple [View article]
    69fasty:

    Thank you for your comment. I expect significant revisions to FY2015 revenue estimates from the Wall Street analysts as we move closer to the release of Apple’s newest product line.
    Dec 28, 2014. 03:20 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • FY2015: Apple's Big Adventure [View article]
    richbar:

    Thank you for your comment. It's been a while. I am incorporating my early Apple Watch estimates in the numbers. I expect analyst estimates to rise as we move closer to the new product line's debut.

    As I mentioned in the article, I expect the strong uptake of the iPhone 6 handsets and overall iPhone unit sales alone to double last fiscal year's rate of revenue growth. That's prior to the influence of revenue from the new product line.
    Dec 3, 2014. 10:53 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • FY2015: Apple's Big Adventure [View article]
    Bill:

    Thank you for your comment. I have a few more metrics to cover in my next article.
    Nov 30, 2014. 08:47 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • FY2015: Apple's Big Adventure [View article]
    Michael:

    As we know, all market share is not created equal. Apple doesn't want to make the most devices. Apple wants to make the best devices available on the planet. Customers that are exclusively price focused will be better served by other vendors.

    I can purchase a Huawei "smartphone" running Android 2.3 at my local supermarket for $29.99. It carries the same weight in market share tabulations as an iPhone 6 Plus. But the quality of the devices are really a world apart. Vendors can go broke chasing market share instead of revenue share and satisfactory gross margin.
    Nov 30, 2014. 06:25 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • FY2015: Apple's Big Adventure [View article]
    David:

    Thank you for your comment. I expect this cycle of strong growth to extend into FY2016 as the Apple Watch debuts this spring and the stunning market share gains in the high end of the smartphone market continue beyond the December quarter.

    Due to the changes in domestic telco smartphone subsidy programs, strong demand for the iPhone 6 handsets will continue into spring. The importance of Apple's migration to 64-bit SOCs for the iPhone and iPad can not be overstated. Apple is making headway in the enterprise market and gains in that market are often summarily overlooked.
    Nov 30, 2014. 05:27 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • FY2015: Apple's Big Adventure [View article]
    Harm:

    Apple imputes a US tax liability on foreign earnings not permanently dedicated to use outside the United States. While the tax issue in the EU is an important matter to be addressed, a greater tax issue for consideration is the possibility of at least a temporary reduction in US taxes on foreign sourced income which would allow Apple to repatriate tens of billions of dollars and which negate the need to borrow against foreign-sourced earnings to fund the ongoing share repurchase program.
    Nov 30, 2014. 05:18 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • FY2015: Apple's Big Adventure [View article]
    Daya:

    Thank you for your comment. I'm looking forward to a very strong cycle of growth for Apple extending beyond this fiscal year.
    Nov 30, 2014. 05:12 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • FY2015: Apple's Big Adventure [View article]
    TF17:

    Although a very strong December quarter is already anticipated, as I mentioned in the article, I believe Wall Street analysts remain cautious. It’s challenging to forecast unit sales for the Apple Watch prior to release and there are overall concerns about the pace of growth in FY2016.

    I expect analysts to continue to revise their revenue and earnings estimates for FY2015 as we move closer to December quarter results and the debut of the Apple Watch. Institutions remain in an underweight position on the shares and increasing institutional ownership of a diminishing umber of shares will be a catalyst for the share price over the next few months.
    Nov 30, 2014. 04:50 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • FY2015: Apple's Big Adventure [View article]
    scott trader:

    As you point out, TVs are a commodity product. In contrast, the new 5K iMac displays are stunning and add to the value proposition offered to consumers.
    Nov 30, 2014. 01:09 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
935 Comments
1,277 Likes