Understanding Apple's Rates Of Growth [View article]
reagan:
I'll be posting my preliminary FY 2012 estimates momentarily. Apple's earnings growth will remain strong. However, the overall market conditions will also play a role.
Understanding Apple's Rates Of Growth [View article]
ptmmac:
Thank you for your kind words.
Horace does some amazing things in Numbers. Based on his work I now develop my models and create my analysis exclusively in Pages and Numbers. It was Daniel's work over the years that inspired me to get started. They are both extraordinary individuals who have done much to increase the quality of the analysis available on Apple.
Understanding Apple's Rates Of Growth [View article]
KenC: I better understand your comment now. You were responding to the post by mikeurl.
I agree with you. If revenue comes in at less than 50% growth in the December quarter I'll have real concerns. The September quarter outcome is a set-up for a very strong December quarter performance.
Understanding Apple's Rates Of Growth [View article]
Camden:
My responses on the channel inventory did relate to the September quarter. That quarter revealed some "challenges" that had been masked by the Verizon iPhone deal and the positive response to the iPad 2.
In my analysis of the September quarter outcome I have determined the following:
1. Apple's near-term revenue growth will be fueled by product refreshes, regional expansion and additional iPhone carriers in existing markets.
2. Apple remains primarily a device maker. I've mentioned this in my two most recent columns. All other products and services are designed to assist in maintaining pricing control on hardware devices and to drive unit sales.
An outcome of this is the Android market may not deliver the level of financial return to Google and Android developers that some imagine. Absent pricing control, the Android market may not deliver attractive returns to most of the handset makers. I expect a winnowing of players in that market over the next 24 months.
3. Much of the additional revenue growth I expected in the September quarter will be picked-up in the December quarter.
4. The retail stores are highly dependent on new products. The stores assist in reducing operating expenses as a percentage of revenue by providing sales, marketing, advertising and service support. But store revenue growth is subject to product cycles.
5. Content sells devices. iTunes, iCloud and the app stores are constituent products and services. What they deliver is revenue is secondary to the boost to unit sales the products and services provide.
I will be covering these issues in upcoming articles.
Understanding Apple's Rates Of Growth [View article]
Secular_Investor:
In the September quarter Asia-Pacific represented 23% of recognized revenue and almost 50% of the reported revenue growth in the period. I expect more good news from the region in the December and March quarters.
Understanding Apple's Rates Of Growth [View article]
dr.anthony:
My own view is the share currently lack a catalyst. Following the September quarter outcome, analysts and investors may be looking to the December quarter numbers for guidance.
Absent a catalyst, the shares may trade in tandem with the overall market.
Understanding Apple's Rates Of Growth [View article]
Camden:
Fist of all, I don't consider your inquiries to be argumentative and I appreciate your interest in clarity. Second, my name is Robert. Stephen is the name of a commenter on the column.
I'll take the issues one-by-one:
Apple ended the September quarter with 2.5 million iPads in the channel. I consider it light ahead of the 14-week December quarter which will include sales through December 31st. Even at the September quarter sell through rate, it works out to just over 3 weeks of supply.
I'm anticipating iPad unit sales of between 13.5 and 14.0 million units in FQ1 and I expected higher channel supply numbers at the end of the September quarter.
On the iPhone, channel inventory stood at 5.75 million units. I expect December quarter iPhone unit shipments (all models) to be above 32 million units. The iPhone 4S was released three weeks into the quarter, the 3GS iPhone remains available to the global market and in several territories the original iPhone 4 will continue to be the shipping product until after the first of the year. I consider the iPhone ending inventory number to have been light as well considering the near insatiable demand for Apple products in the Asia-Pacific region. Demand for the 3GS alone in both post-paid markets and in the markets in which Apple is testing pre-paid contract sales remains high and is a significant component of the overall iPhone sales mix.
I would not characterize Apple's approach as a "hold back." I'd characterize the approach as "cautious." I expect the cautious approach to benefit December quarter unit sales numbers.
Understanding Apple's Rates Of Growth [View article]
KenC:
Where are you getting the 30% number? The December quarter will deliver greater than 50% revenue growth for a number of reasons including the iPhone 4S release, the Sprint agreement and the 14-week period that occurs once every six years.
Understanding Apple's Rates Of Growth [View article]
Camden:
My estimates for last quarter included expectations for Apple to provide ample channel supply of both the iPhone and iPad ahead of the 14-week December quarter. At about 5.75 million units, global iPhone channel supply was low at the end of the September quarter and ending iPad channel supply was 2.5 million units.
These factors will add to the December quarter's outcome. Still, I expect a moderation in both revenue and earnings growth this fiscal year even with the "monster quarter" that will include 14 shipping weeks this year and include the full shipping week following Christmas.
Understanding Apple's Rates Of Growth [View article]
Neil Anderson:
Thank you for the kind words. It took some time to build the graphs but I figured it was important to visually explain the main points mentioned in the article.
Understanding Apple's Rates Of Growth [View article]
pinz:
I've listened to Tim Cook on each of the quarterly conference calls with analysts over the past few years. His contributions to Apple's profit growth and operational excellence can not be overstated.
Understanding Apple's Rates Of Growth [View article]
Robert McDonald:
In the September quarter the Asia-Pacific region (exclusive of the retail stores and Japan) represented 23% of revenue and nearly 50% of the revenue growth in the quarter. Asia-Pacific will surpass Europe this fiscal year in revenue generation to become the company's second largest revenue producer. The opportunities in China are unreal. China is both a near-term and long-term play.
Understanding Apple's Rates Of Growth [View article]
Skippy09:
I think you have an excellent approach. There's no sense trying to time purchases of Apple for long-term investors. A year from now (my standing price target is $640), it matters little whether an investor acquired shares at $375 or $399. The bigger risk is missing out on the strong share price advances that will occur over the next twelve months while waiting for a "buying opportunity." The opportunity is already here.
Understanding Apple's Rates Of Growth [View article]
I'll be posting my preliminary FY 2012 estimates momentarily. Apple's earnings growth will remain strong. However, the overall market conditions will also play a role.
Understanding Apple's Rates Of Growth [View article]
Thank you for your kind words.
Horace does some amazing things in Numbers. Based on his work I now develop my models and create my analysis exclusively in Pages and Numbers. It was Daniel's work over the years that inspired me to get started. They are both extraordinary individuals who have done much to increase the quality of the analysis available on Apple.
Understanding Apple's Rates Of Growth [View article]
I agree with you. If revenue comes in at less than 50% growth in the December quarter I'll have real concerns. The September quarter outcome is a set-up for a very strong December quarter performance.
Understanding Apple's Rates Of Growth [View article]
My responses on the channel inventory did relate to the September quarter. That quarter revealed some "challenges" that had been masked by the Verizon iPhone deal and the positive response to the iPad 2.
In my analysis of the September quarter outcome I have determined the following:
1. Apple's near-term revenue growth will be fueled by product refreshes, regional expansion and additional iPhone carriers in existing markets.
2. Apple remains primarily a device maker. I've mentioned this in my two most recent columns. All other products and services are designed to assist in maintaining pricing control on hardware devices and to drive unit sales.
An outcome of this is the Android market may not deliver the level of financial return to Google and Android developers that some imagine. Absent pricing control, the Android market may not deliver attractive returns to most of the handset makers. I expect a winnowing of players in that market over the next 24 months.
3. Much of the additional revenue growth I expected in the September quarter will be picked-up in the December quarter.
4. The retail stores are highly dependent on new products. The stores assist in reducing operating expenses as a percentage of revenue by providing sales, marketing, advertising and service support. But store revenue growth is subject to product cycles.
5. Content sells devices. iTunes, iCloud and the app stores are constituent products and services. What they deliver is revenue is secondary to the boost to unit sales the products and services provide.
I will be covering these issues in upcoming articles.
Understanding Apple's Rates Of Growth [View article]
In the September quarter Asia-Pacific represented 23% of recognized revenue and almost 50% of the reported revenue growth in the period. I expect more good news from the region in the December and March quarters.
Understanding Apple's Rates Of Growth [View article]
I expect investor patience with AAPL to be amply rewarded over the next twelve months.
Understanding Apple's Rates Of Growth [View article]
I will be posting my FY 2012 estimates within the next two weeks. I look forward to your comments.
Understanding Apple's Rates Of Growth [View article]
My own view is the share currently lack a catalyst. Following the September quarter outcome, analysts and investors may be looking to the December quarter numbers for guidance.
Absent a catalyst, the shares may trade in tandem with the overall market.
Understanding Apple's Rates Of Growth [View article]
Fist of all, I don't consider your inquiries to be argumentative and I appreciate your interest in clarity. Second, my name is Robert. Stephen is the name of a commenter on the column.
I'll take the issues one-by-one:
Apple ended the September quarter with 2.5 million iPads in the channel. I consider it light ahead of the 14-week December quarter which will include sales through December 31st. Even at the September quarter sell through rate, it works out to just over 3 weeks of supply.
I'm anticipating iPad unit sales of between 13.5 and 14.0 million units in FQ1 and I expected higher channel supply numbers at the end of the September quarter.
On the iPhone, channel inventory stood at 5.75 million units. I expect December quarter iPhone unit shipments (all models) to be above 32 million units. The iPhone 4S was released three weeks into the quarter, the 3GS iPhone remains available to the global market and in several territories the original iPhone 4 will continue to be the shipping product until after the first of the year. I consider the iPhone ending inventory number to have been light as well considering the near insatiable demand for Apple products in the Asia-Pacific region. Demand for the 3GS alone in both post-paid markets and in the markets in which Apple is testing pre-paid contract sales remains high and is a significant component of the overall iPhone sales mix.
I would not characterize Apple's approach as a "hold back." I'd characterize the approach as "cautious." I expect the cautious approach to benefit December quarter unit sales numbers.
Understanding Apple's Rates Of Growth [View article]
Where are you getting the 30% number? The December quarter will deliver greater than 50% revenue growth for a number of reasons including the iPhone 4S release, the Sprint agreement and the 14-week period that occurs once every six years.
Understanding Apple's Rates Of Growth [View article]
My estimates for last quarter included expectations for Apple to provide ample channel supply of both the iPhone and iPad ahead of the 14-week December quarter. At about 5.75 million units, global iPhone channel supply was low at the end of the September quarter and ending iPad channel supply was 2.5 million units.
These factors will add to the December quarter's outcome. Still, I expect a moderation in both revenue and earnings growth this fiscal year even with the "monster quarter" that will include 14 shipping weeks this year and include the full shipping week following Christmas.
Understanding Apple's Rates Of Growth [View article]
Thank you for the kind words. It took some time to build the graphs but I figured it was important to visually explain the main points mentioned in the article.
Understanding Apple's Rates Of Growth [View article]
I've listened to Tim Cook on each of the quarterly conference calls with analysts over the past few years. His contributions to Apple's profit growth and operational excellence can not be overstated.
Understanding Apple's Rates Of Growth [View article]
In the September quarter the Asia-Pacific region (exclusive of the retail stores and Japan) represented 23% of revenue and nearly 50% of the revenue growth in the quarter. Asia-Pacific will surpass Europe this fiscal year in revenue generation to become the company's second largest revenue producer. The opportunities in China are unreal. China is both a near-term and long-term play.
Understanding Apple's Rates Of Growth [View article]
I think you have an excellent approach. There's no sense trying to time purchases of Apple for long-term investors. A year from now (my standing price target is $640), it matters little whether an investor acquired shares at $375 or $399. The bigger risk is missing out on the strong share price advances that will occur over the next twelve months while waiting for a "buying opportunity." The opportunity is already here.