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  • Apple's Magical Mystery Year [View article]

    You've just described why, no matter today's headlines about early resistance to Apple Pay by a few retailers, why the service will be very successful and be widely adopted by merchants.

    Appealing to Apple customers through the adoption of Apple Pay may be a very smart way to increase customer traffic.
    Oct 27, 2014. 11:11 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple's Magical Mystery Year [View article]

    I'm sure there are many, many shareholders of Apple that first purchased the products and after becoming fascinated with the products chose to invest in the company.
    Oct 27, 2014. 11:08 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple's Magical Mystery Year [View article]

    Apple's hyper-growth since 2003 has been fueled by entering new product markets. By disrupting established markets first with the iPod, second with Intel-based Macs, third with the iPhone, followed by the iPad and quite soon the Apple Watch, the company appeals to more consumers and a broader segment of the global consumer market.

    With each disruptive product, Apple adds tens of millions of new content customers each year. This is why Apple's growth has not been limited so much by the company's bigness as it is limited by infrastructure to acquire and serve new customers.

    Apple is building out its content delivery infrastructure at a rapid pace while opening new Apple retail stores and adding 3rd-party retail partners in emerging markets.

    Please keep in mind if Apple adds $37 billion in revenue this fiscal year the company will acquire in new revenue more than the total revenue of over 400 enterprises in the current Fortune 500 list.

    Gauging Apple's revenue growth in volume terms versus percentage terms will reveal a different dimension of the company's growth dynamic.
    Oct 27, 2014. 10:59 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple's Magical Mystery Year [View article]
    For the benefit of Seeking Alpha readers I’d like to provide details on the Braeburn Group. As the group’s description states, “The Braeburn Group is a global community comprised of Apple independent analysts, Apple product enthusiasts and individuals with an interest in the evolution of digital products and related technologies.”

    Although our members discuss Apple’s share price as a derivative of our interest in Apple, it is not a trader’s forum of an investment community. In fact, nothing posted in the Braeburn Group is or should be considered investment advice. It’s a discussion community for conversation about all things Apple.

    Although outcomes will change by quarter, for the September quarter six of the seven Braeburn Group participating analysts finished in the top 10 of all analysts polled for revenue and earnings per share estimates and four of the seven affiliated analysts were in the top 10 for estimates covering all categories.

    The opening of the Braeburn Group was announced during my presentation at the Apple Investor Summit held at the Los Angeles Convention Center in mid-March 2012. Steve Wozniak and Walter Isaacson were the keynote speakers at the event.

    My story and the development of the Braeburn Group received wide media coverage in the months following the group’s debut.

    While I consider mischaracterizations of the group unfortunate, individuals are entitled to their own points of view. Fostering informed discourse about Apple is the Braeburn Group’s primary mission. Again, it is not an investment community. This is among the reasons the group is private and real name registration is required by all members.

    I’d like to restate that I am a long-term Apple investor. I have never played options or used any kind of leverage instruments such as margin. I would disclose my use of options or any kind of leverage instruments in the disclosure at the bottom of each of my articles if I engaged in those practices.

    Although membership in the Braeburn Group is effectively closed, anyone interested in more information about the group or its mission may contact me at: robert(at)braeburngrou...

    I believe disclosure is an integral part of informed discourse. I ask anyone commenting on the Braeburn Group in the context of this article or comments on this article to disclose their full name.
    Oct 27, 2014. 12:42 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple's Magical Mystery Year [View article]

    I don't know Apple's plans for the future with 5K, but the new iMac is quite impressive with the display. Additionally, the new iPad Air 2 is an attractive product.

    Concerning the iPhone, this will be the biggest upgrade cycle in the history of the product line. The larger-screen handsets are a draw for those purchasing their first smartphone, for current iPhone owners upgrading to a new handset and for those that left the iPhone eco-system for whatever reason over the past few years.
    Oct 27, 2014. 03:30 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple's Magical Mystery Year [View article]
    User 16012202:

    Please see this page for the current consensus revenue estimate. As of a moment ago, it's $208.99 billion:
    Oct 27, 2014. 03:15 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple's Magical Mystery Year [View article]

    As you know, I’ve never played options. Although I am a long-term shareholder, I do not actively trade Apple shares. It might be helpful to the discussions if you revealed your history with Apple options over the past few years since you brought the topic forward.
    Oct 27, 2014. 02:11 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple's Magical Mystery Year [View article]

    The so-called "Law of Large Numbers" has nothing to do with equities or enterprises. It's a probability theory concerning the outcome of the same experiment over a large number of times or chances.

    It has nothing to do with Apple and is misapplied by anyone using it to forecast Apple's growth or growth prospects.
    Oct 27, 2014. 12:38 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple's Magical Mystery Year [View article]
    I agree that applies to your original post. We're discussing Apple.
    Oct 27, 2014. 12:33 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple's Magical Mystery Year [View article]

    Braeburn is a hybrid Apple variety. It has a complex flavor and can be challenging to cultivate. This is not unlike the work needed to organize a global network of Apple independent analysts.

    As an aside, Braeburn Capital is the name of Apple's asset management company. I'm sure the folks at Apple's asset management subsidiary know something about technology. Even more they know something about managing hundreds of billions of dollars in cash and equivalents.

    I don't know if any of the staff members at Braeburn Capital play shuffleboard, but the subsidiary is based in Reno, Nevada. If shuffleboard is your sport and you are looking for partners, you can always call and ask.

    Braeburn and shuffleboard in my view are strange word associations to ask about, but each to his or her own view on life. For the record, I haven't played shuffleboard in many years so you will have to look elsewhere for a partner.
    Good luck with your pastime of choice. I didn't know that many people were interested in shuffleboard anymore.
    Now back to Apple. 
    Oct 27, 2014. 12:22 AM | 10 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple's Magical Mystery Year [View article]

    Thank you for your comment.
    Oct 27, 2014. 12:06 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple's Magical Mystery Year [View article]

    On Saturday I was with a family member when he walked into an Apple retail store around noon local time and purchased a 16GB iPhone 6. Three people were in the iPhone purchase queue ahead of us and it took literally just a few minutes for the iPhone to be brought from the back of the store to be sold.

    There were no lines outside the store and we just walked in and purchased one. Although supplies may remain constrained through the western holiday season, I suspect Apple has contracted for much more production capacity than last year or at any time in the product line's history.
    Oct 26, 2014. 11:46 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple's Magical Mystery Year [View article]

    I was attempting to be polite. I no longer publish share price targets for Apple. The reason for not publishing price targets is because the focus becomes the price target not the underlying data that supports the forecast.

    On a base case of $220 billion in revenue and a cautious estimate net income per revenue dollar this fiscal year remains fairly consistent with FY2014 results, the mentioned share price in your original comment would be within my broad share price target range.
    Oct 26, 2014. 11:37 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple's Magical Mystery Year [View article]
    User 16012202:

    There are a number of resources that will provide the current Street consensus estimates. I use Yahoo! Finance as a constant.
    Oct 26, 2014. 09:44 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple's Magical Mystery Year [View article]

    Due in part to the company’s already massive market cap and tentativeness on the growth picture for FY2016, I can see Apple’s multiple contracting slightly this fiscal year. Revenue and earnings catalysts will continue to be more fully disclosed over the next few months including the release data for the Apple Watch line, the big data iOS apps being developed by IBM as well as the further development of new iOS-based services.

    As a constant, I use 15 times trailing earnings in my valuation forecasts. My focus is on net income growth as the primary driver of share price appreciation, not earnings per share.

    For long-term investors, how quickly Apple’s share price reaches a particular point is less important than the fundamental potential to increase net income over time.

    It’s possible the market could move the share price higher in anticipation of a strong holiday quarter for the company and it’s also possible the market could move the share price to $130 per share by this time next year.

    The share repurchase program and the timing of the repurchases will have some sway in the market’s near-term valuation of the company and consequently the share price. The more shares repurchased now in the range of the current share price, the more impact the repurchases will have on the share price moving forward.

    Please remember Apple averages the number of fully diluted shares reported at the end of each quarter. Throughout the period of the current $90 billion repurchase plan, provided shares are repurchased each quarter until the repurchases are completed, there will be at least slightly fewer shares in the fully diluted share count than the number of shares used in the quarterly eps calculations.
    Oct 26, 2014. 09:42 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment