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  • The Apple Finance Board FQ3 Estimate Index [View article]
    Earnings per share growth (and the rate of eps growth) are the most important factors in forecasting AAPL's valuation.
    Jul 7 12:52 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Apple Finance Board FQ3 Estimate Index [View article]
    My 12-month price target is $590 per share. Earnings growth alone will be a strong catalyst for share price appreciation in the months ahead.
    Jul 7 12:49 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Apple Finance Board FQ3 Estimate Index [View article]
    I wish it were that easy! I won't speak for all of the AFB members who submitted numbers for the index, but my rough estimates for each quarter begin about a year in advance and I consistently evaluate and analyze the numbers until the last day of the quarter.

    I may publish my early FQ1 estimates (the December quarter) soon after the June quarter numbers are released. Stay tuned...
    Jul 7 12:46 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Apple Finance Board FQ3 Estimate Index [View article]
    The eps outcome will be influenced by how much Apple may have drawn down iPhone channel inventory in the quarter and the extent to which the company satisfied global channel demand for the iPad 2 before the end of the three-month period.
    Jul 6 01:31 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Apple Finance Board FQ3 Estimate Index [View article]
    The track record for members of the AFB compared to the estimates provided by the pros has been quite good. Individually and as a group the members of the AFB analyze news and information on a daily basis. My estimates are crafted over the full 91 days of each fiscal quarter.
    Jul 6 01:29 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Apple Finance Board FQ3 Estimate Index [View article]
    I haven't seen details of the settlement. But royalty payments to Nokia had been expected. The issue wasn't whether or not royalties would be due, but the royalty rate to be paid. It's possible Apple has already reserved for much of the settlement payment.
    Jul 6 01:17 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Apple Finance Board FQ3 Estimate Index [View article]
    Of the 48 analyst estimates (pros and bloggers) compared to actual results last quarter at Apple 2.0, the 13 top spots all went to analysts affiliated with the Apple Finance Board including Horace Dediu, Turley Muller, Daniel Tello and Andy Zaky.

    Please view the results for yourself: bit.ly/nQYcXX
    Jul 6 01:14 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple's PEG Ratio Signals Share Price Gains Ahead [View article]
    Travis:

    The FY2012 revenue and eps estimates for Apple remain remarkably low. Actual results trump estimates and both the June quarter and September quarter results will be catalysts for significant share price appreciation.
    Jul 6 12:57 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple's PEG Ratio Signals Share Price Gains Ahead [View article]
    Constable Odo:

    Apple does best what Apple does best. The company's focus is on innovating and monetizing hardware devices. Apple became the world's largest music distributor because the company needed to create an efficient distribution system to provide inexpensive content for the company's devices.

    For the distribution of movies and TV shows to be consumed on Apple's hardware devices, Netflix has done an amazing job. There's no reason for Apple to compete with or acquire Netflix because it would be challenging for Apple to create greater efficiencies.

    Apple's focus on the company's core markets provides gross margins in the range of 40% and an ability to limit operating expenses to less than 10% of reported revenue.

    This strategy results in net income closes to $.25 on each revenue dollar and this fiscal year will produce revenue growth of over 70%.

    My 12-month price target for Apple is $590 per share.
    Jul 6 12:45 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Apple Finance Board Q3 Unit Sales Estimate Index [View article]
    The June quarter Mac unit sales total is heavily influenced by sales to schools and school districts. Another big influence is the increasing number of Apple retail stores in previously under served markets.

    Roughly 50% of Mac unit sales at the retail stores are to people new to the platform. I expect the retail stores alone to sell more than 1 million Macs in the September quarter.
    Jul 4 11:26 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Forecasting $590 per Share Price Target for Apple [View article]
    Camden:

    I've been writing about Apple long enough to remember the uncertainties mentioned by analysts, journalists and tech industry pros about what would happen if Steve Jobs did return to the helm of the company. There was much speculation and many concerns mentioned following the NeXT acquisition and SJ's initial role as a special advisor to then CEO Gil Amelio.

    It was 14 years ago this weekend Steve Jobs returned to the helm of the company. Now the concerns and speculation are about what will happen if he leaves Apple anytime soon. There's much irony in the story.

    I believe concerns about a Steve Jobs departure is already priced into the share price considering the low valuation in the context of 83.2% eps growth in the first six months of the current fiscal year.

    I've listened to each quarterly conference call with analysts since webcasts of the calls began and I have great confidence in the competence and aptitude of Tim Cook.
    Jun 28 11:58 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Forecasting $590 per Share Price Target for Apple [View article]
    Good timing that you mention AMZN and AAPL. I posted the article linked below on my blog yesterday at Posts At Eventide. It has yet to be picked up at Seeking Alpha. It's titled AAPL: The Coiled Spring

    www.postsateventide.co...
    Jun 28 12:35 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Forecasting $590 per Share Price Target for Apple [View article]
    I'll be explaining the stock's recent price movements over the next few weeks. Please stay tuned.
    Jun 27 02:53 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Forecasting $590 per Share Price Target for Apple [View article]
    I see significant share price appreciation over the next twelve months. In the June and September quarters trailing 12-month earnings will rise in the area of 20% each quarter. Both the Wall Street median and mean target prices are at about $450 per share and most analysts tracking the company have yet to update FY2012 revenue and earnings estimates.

    As the market moves beyond this fiscal year's performance the company is poised to report a first fiscal quarter of $40 billion in revenue.

    While it's true AAPL is already widely held, the stock remains a high beta equity and will exaggerate market moves to the upside.
    Jun 14 10:46 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Forecasting $590 per Share Price Target for Apple [View article]
    This is an excellent idea. I've done this analysis in different pieces. It may be time to pull it all together in one set of graphs. Thank you for posting this comment.
    Jun 14 10:35 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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