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  • Apple's Scenic Detour On The Road To Reported Growth [View article]
    davel:

    I took a long time to get to those points because I strive to provide context and factual documentation to support the points that are made.
    I do expect new products to drive new growth. In the meantime, Apple will continue to grow revenue at high single-digit or low-double digit rates from the company’s existing product lines.
    Nov 26 01:06 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple's Scenic Detour On The Road To Reported Growth [View article]
    rnsmth:

    I expect long-term shareholders to be rewarded with both dividend increases and share price appreciation over the next few years.
    Nov 26 12:57 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple's Scenic Detour On The Road To Reported Growth [View article]
    Camden:

    I’m not publishing estimates on the impact of a China Mobile agreement until information is known on when iPhone shipments to the carrier will begin and which handset models will be included in the initial deal.

    A China Mobile deal will obviously boost iPhone unit sales. I don’t want to risk overstating or over estimating the impact of an eventual agreement until terms and timing are known.
    Nov 26 12:47 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple's Scenic Detour On The Road To Reported Growth [View article]
    MWinMD:
    Apple’s new deferred revenue program will not only materially diminish recognized revenue in the first four quarters following the change in the amounts deferred per unit sold, it will also remove the increase in deferred revenue from the gross margin computations.

    I’d like to see December quarter results before stating reported gross margin will be moving higher in FY2014. Moving four quarters out from the introduction of the new deferred revenue program, gross margin may indeed move higher as the impact of the change in deferred revenue diminishes.

    That said, I remain positive on Apple’s long-term potential for revenue and net income growth.
    Nov 26 12:42 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple's Scenic Detour On The Road To Reported Growth [View article]
    TimmiesRegular:

    I remain quite positive on Apple’s long-term prospects for growth. I’m not publishing an estimate on the FY2014 unit sales value of the eventual China Mobile agreement until contract terms are known.

    Both the timing of the China Mobile agreement (for example before or after Lunar New Year celebrations 2014) and the handsets to be included in the initial deal will influence the unit sales impact of the agreement this fiscal year.

    My current FY2014 revenue estimate is exclusive of a China Mobile deal or the impact of new products that may be released during the fiscal year.
    Nov 26 12:29 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple's Scenic Detour On The Road To Reported Growth [View article]
    iObserver:

    I appreciate your comments. I do expect a strong FY2014 iPhone upgrade cycle as two-year iPhone 4S contracts expire.
    Nov 26 12:20 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple's Scenic Detour On The Road To Reported Growth [View article]
    Humble Eagles:

    I expect long-term Apple shareholders to be rewarded for their patience.
    Nov 26 12:17 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple's Scenic Detour On The Road To Reported Growth [View article]
    viking vancouver:

    I view Apple as a platform more than as a purveyor of digital devices. Each new customer, whether that customer purchases a new or pre-owned Apple device, increases the company’s economic reach and the addressable market for post-purchase sales of apps, content and services.

    The high resale value of iPhones and iPads indicates the company’s products are viewed as valuable long after the moment of original purchase.
    Nov 26 12:15 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple's Scenic Detour On The Road To Reported Growth [View article]
    Roger:

    In my view Apple is increasing the value proposition of the company’s devices with each product refresh and the array of new device services being added each year.

    As I stated in the article:

    More than a product company, Apple is a platform and an enterprise that obsesses over innovation and customer satisfaction.
    Nov 26 12:09 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple's Scenic Detour On The Road To Reported Growth [View article]
    Michael:

    There is a robust market for pre-owned iPhones and iPads in the United States and overseas. I consider this market a positive for new device sales. Not only do pre-owned iPhones hold their value beyond the two-year anticipated economic life of the unit, buyers of older handsets expand the reach of the company’s massive eco-system by increasing the number of active iPhone users and provide a form of subsidy for purchases of new handsets by consumers trading in older iPhones or reselling iPhones through the many informal channels available.

    For example, last week I was offered $183 for the iPhone 4S that I purchased more than two years ago. That trade-in offer was only $17 below the post-subsidy price of the handset at time of original purchase. Had I accepted the offer, the post-subsidy cost of my new iPhone 5s would have been a net $17 plus applicable sales tax.

    I chose to keep the iPhone 4S for use as a digital music player in the car, at work and as a home remote for Apple TV.
    Nov 26 12:02 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple's Scenic Detour On The Road To Reported Growth [View article]
    pk de cville:

    Thank you for your comment. I enjoy analyzing Apple and the global product markets in which the company competes for customers and device sales.
    Nov 25 11:36 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple's Scenic Detour On The Road To Reported Growth [View article]
    Gary J:

    I’m not surprised Apple’s rate of revenue growth has slowed. The fast rates of growth following the introduction of the iPhone in 2007 and the iPad in 2010 occurred in tandem with the release of new products.

    The reach of Apple’s global economic footprint is expanding by the day while the company adds new customers by the minute. Apple continues to build out its content and services infrastructure to support current products and new products that emerge over the next twelve months.
    Nov 25 11:34 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple's Scenic Detour On The Road To Reported Growth [View article]
    StonehamMel:

    The value of Apple’s eco-system can not be overstated. As I mentioned in the article, iTunes billings may reach $20 billion in FY2014 and billions more are earned by accessories makers crafting products for Apple’s popular devices.

    Apple is expanding its global economic footprint by the day. There’s nothing “wrong” with Apple at this time. I do expect Apple to expand the company’s product lines and build on the global eco-system that’s already in place.

    Reading through the comments, I can understand how this article might be perceived as “bearish” by some, but I remain quite positive about Apple’s long-term prospects for growth.
    Nov 25 11:21 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple's Scenic Detour On The Road To Reported Growth [View article]
    JG2000:

    I do expect some multiple expansion due to the deferred revenue program. The market will consider pro forma results along with GAAP results in establishing value.

    To put growth in perspective, at $187.50 billion (my current FY2014 revenue estimate exclusive of a China Mobile deal and new product lines in 2014), Apple will add about 16.59 billion in revenue in the fiscal year. $16.59 billion is greater than the total revenue reported by 330 enterprises in the 2013 Fortune 500 list.

    A China Mobile deal would add to Apple’s FY2014 revenue performance. I don’t expect management to deliver a big surprise in January. My current revenue estimate for the December quarter is above management’s guidance range of $55 billion to $58 billion. However, I would expect management to update guidance if revenue tracks well above the initial guidance range rather than wait to deliver a big surprise in January.
    Nov 25 11:07 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple's Think Different Approach To Quarterly Math [View article]
    kroyals:

    I'm quite familiar with Apple's deferred revenue model and I tracked the rising deferred revenue balances quite closely during the years all iPhone revenue was deferred.

    The deferred revenue comes off the top prior to the calculation of gross margin. In the first four quarters following the change in deferred revenue per unit sold, it will materially moderate reported revenue and dampen gross margin. The biggest impact on reported revenue and gross margin will be during the first four quarters following the change in deferred revenue per unit sold. The impact will then gradually diminish as recognized revenue from deferrals in prior periods partially offset the amounts deferred in the current period. After eight quarters following the change in deferred revenue, the only impact, practically speaking, is the deferred revenue on the increase in units sold.

    Please remember Apple is recognizing the deferred revenue on a straight-line basis over 24 months or 8 quarters for iOS devices and over 48 months or 16 quarters for each Mac sold. Please also remember Apple has been deferring revenue on each iOS device sold and each Mac sold since June 11, 2011.

    Apple continues to collect the cash on the deferred revenue amounts. The difference is the deferred revenue amounts are not picked-up as recognized revenue in the quarter in which the devices are sold. The cash remains with Apple and is realized as a deferred revenue liability until recognized on a straight-line basis in future quarters.

    Overall, the increase in deferred revenue per unit sold has no impact on Apple’s cash activity. It will, however, soften the seasonal recognized revenue arc.
    Nov 10 02:40 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
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