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Power Hedge  

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  • Tesla Will Need To Restructure [View article]
    I was listening to it on Sirius. I tried to find a link but nothing showed up on either Bing or Google.
    Jul 24, 2015. 08:46 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla Will Need To Restructure [View article]
    Not sure it will be in 6 months, but I agree.
    Jul 24, 2015. 08:44 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla Will Need To Restructure [View article]
    No, but printing money based on low debt rates is exactly Tesla's business strategy.
    Jul 24, 2015. 08:43 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla Will Need To Restructure [View article]
    Tesla had negative OCF last quarter. It also had negative operating income (and both numbers were far worse YOY.) What numbers are you talking about? Even its gross profits were lower.
    Jul 24, 2015. 08:40 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla Will Need To Restructure [View article]
    Agreed. SolarCity and Tesla both have much higher debt levels than their peers (I haven't looked at his other companies) and nobody seems to be mentioning this.
    Jul 24, 2015. 08:37 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The 'Oil Supply Glut' Appears To Be A Myth [View article]
    No there isn't... that's the point of this article.
    Jul 19, 2015. 07:55 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The 'Oil Supply Glut' Appears To Be A Myth [View article]
    Please explain to me why the market for gold and silver has been totally flat despite the fact that the Chinese are buying up far more than the production of both.

    The answer is derivatives and leverage, which nobody seems willing to discuss.
    Jul 19, 2015. 07:53 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The 'Oil Supply Glut' Appears To Be A Myth [View article]
    Agreed, but remember that not all countries imposed sanctions on Iran.

    I've heard reports that Iran was selling its oil through Russian and Chinese channels prior to the sanctions deal. If this information is correct then it should have absolutely no effect on the supply/demand balance, but I can't prove this so far.
    Jul 19, 2015. 07:51 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The 'Oil Supply Glut' Appears To Be A Myth [View article]
    True, however, remember that the EIA inventory numbers are also being increased by adjustments of increasing levels.

    If cars don't run on oil, then what do they run on? Gasoline inventories have been flat and I didn't even look at the adjustments there.
    Jul 19, 2015. 07:49 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is Seadrill Planning To Acquire Sevan Drilling? Why This Could Make Sense [View article]
    Actually, I agree with most of the comments here. As I point out in the last paragraph, Seadrill already has control of the company and I don't see a big reason for the company to buy out the rest of Sevan. At the same time, Sevan Drilling does look like a buying opportunity at the current price.
    Jul 19, 2015. 06:47 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The 'Oil Supply Glut' Appears To Be A Myth [View article]
    That's the problem with derivatives... fundamental economics don't apply when someone can essentially print millions or billions in cash to influence the market. The truth of derivatives is this: What if I used $5 billion in derivatives to short sell $1 trillion worth of Apple stock? I promise you that the price would go down at limited risk to me.

    Yes, it's an extreme example, but entirely possible... and that's the problem with the markets and fundamental analysis today.
    Jul 18, 2015. 01:46 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The 'Oil Supply Glut' Appears To Be A Myth [View article]
    The short answer to that is that I'm not 100% sure that I'm correct here, but this is the information provided by Cornerstone Analytics.

    The longer answer is that the market doesn't trade on fundamentals anymore. The Russell 2000 has a P/E of 85. Jim Cramer recently said that a P/E over 50 is unsustainable. Ergo, he's implicitly predicting a 50%+ crash.

    The market trades on what the government's official figures state. The government says we're at what, a 5.5% unemployment rate or thereabouts (I apologize, I don't want to look up the official figure right now). If you live in any city other than Washington, D.C., New York, Los Angeles, or San Francisco, then I challenge you to walk through your city and ask people if that's accurate. I promise you that the answer will be no.

    The market reacts to the government's published figures though. With that said though, using Warren Buffet's favorite metric, GNP to stock market valuation, the market as a whole is overvalued.

    Then again, the market can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent and the best time to buy is when the blood is in the streets.

    If I'm right, then oil could be the buying opportunity of a lifetime, but I'm not expecting this to be appreciated by the market for a couple years.
    Jul 18, 2015. 01:15 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The 'Oil Supply Glut' Appears To Be A Myth [View article]
    Yes, this was was written before the Iran deal. I've been investigating that for the last week to determine the actual impact.

    I've got numerous sources that say that Iranian oil was being sold by the Russians and/or the Chinese prior to the deal. If this is is correct, then then Iranian deal has no real impact, but I want to find proof of that before I publish it.
    Jul 18, 2015. 01:02 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The 'Oil Supply Glut' Appears To Be A Myth [View article]
    That's true. At about $70/barrel, we'd probably start seeing an increase in drilling activity.
    Jul 15, 2015. 10:15 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Stock Market Valuations Show A Clear Ignorance Of Economic Reality [View article]
    I wasn't making a prediction. Just saying that the stock market has a high valuation relative to historical norms.
    Jul 9, 2015. 11:02 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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