Seeking Alpha

Prescient Investment Analysis

 
View as an RSS Feed
View Prescient Investment Analysis' Comments BY TICKER:
Latest  |  Highest rated
  • A Draft Blueprint For The Special Situation At Dell [View article]
    hokiecanecountry, your questions are quite pertinent and I lack definitive answers for them at this time. If anyone can post documents or links to resources that give resoundingly clear guidance it would be helpful. I have seen no indication that Michael Dell would be prohibited from voting his shares at the Meeting. Also, it is not clear to me how and when a person would control over 50% of stock as required under current provisions, or if changing the procedures would need to be voted upon.

    Something similar is probable in the near future at NUAN, but rules in place probably differ.

    Packrat1987, I know of no one who is calling Thursday's vote ahead of time.

    elbrujo, that you for sharing your insight. If you can better address any of the other questions, it would be helpful.
    Jul 14 10:30 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • ARM Holdings: Significant Downside Catalysts Ahead [View article]
    According to my data, institutions have increased their holdings 8.49% this quarter, and UBS reiterated a Buy rating on July 3rd.

    Implied volatility of put options is at 43%, nearly as high as it has been in a year. If, despite what seems to be institutional support for the stock and a recent sell off, you want to initiate a bet on its further decline, prior to earnings, it may be better to sell calls? You should get higher prices for them if IV increases prior to ARMH's Wednesday, 7/24 Report?

    Currently, selling a $41/$42 January call spread should be worth about $0.40, so a January $30/$28 put spread would cost nothing. Aside from tying up margin until it all plays out, maximum loss would be $1 / contract, and maximum gain $2 if it trades below $28. Again, the deal could improve in a week or so...I am not convinced.
    Jul 5 05:40 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Titan International: Recent Slide Presents Buying Opportunity [View article]
    Er, I was looking at the 10-Q of the wrong corporation: Titan Machinery, Inc. (TITN), not Titan International Inc.'s (TWI)!
    Jul 4 08:19 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Titan International: Recent Slide Presents Buying Opportunity [View article]
    From the 10-Q

    The Company’s 3.75% Senior Convertible Notes…[have a]
    conversion price of $43.17.

    So, evidently, the Contributor thinks he can do better than 3.75%with the stock? Insight is lacking...but it does not sound like he bought the notes in March...
    Jul 3 03:28 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Investors Real Estate Trust: Solid High Yielder From 'Flyover Country' [View article]
    Yahoo! Finance is showing close to $1B in debt against a market cap of over $800M?

    http://yhoo.it/12G1AsU

    Maybe they have been borrowing at low rates; partially in order to build in North Dakota?
    Jul 3 02:38 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Investors Real Estate Trust: Solid High Yielder From 'Flyover Country' [View article]
    I had not heard of this one.

    Maybe they are not all booked up in North Dakota, or perhaps rental agreements are structured to result in higher revenues in future years?
    Jul 3 11:57 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Titan International: Recent Slide Presents Buying Opportunity [View article]
    I tend to read articles without commenting. Not being very familiar with Titan, it sounds like the company's business in China is not such a concern. It seems to me that there are serious problems in The People's Republic that many discount.

    I like the chart...there would be 66.6M shares outstanding if the $60 remaining in debt is converted? I do not recall hearing the term "Overhang."

    Not that it is pertinent here, but, during a Carl Icahn presentation on Youtube, he says that what you used to do was buy the convertible debt and short the stock. It seems to me that nowadays conversion ratios are much too high for that...maybe QE has implications for Titan's debt...?
    Jul 3 11:20 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Zoetis Exchange Offer Update [View article]
    Not bad; the market is down and so is ZTS.

    I bought a $29 July put for $60 and sold it today for $80; maybe it would have been worth hanging onto?

    Anyhow...
    Jun 24 01:43 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Oncothyreon Might Be Worth It [View article]
    Yaya704, bigbaboon57, and others: Your comments contribute to a lively discussion that can help the community gain insight into this company and its stock.

    Some marketplace authorities say that speculative investments should only comprise a minority of one's portfolio. Jim Cramer, for example, says up to 20%. ONTY is speculative; as is OMER, which seems to have dodged Russell 2000 deletion and therefore should remain in the index funds that automatically track it.

    There are two people who are familiar pursuant to following OMER: Robyn Karnauskas, of Deutsche Bank; and Peter Kolchinsky, whose company is Ra Capital Mangement.

    Karnauskas is quoted as saying that an undervalued pipeline is something to look for in biotech stocks.

    http://bit.ly/17vJCgg

    Kolchinsky, who must be a whiz by all accounts, evidently makes money through a portfolio of many speculative companies. He bought into OMER at around $4.11, probably not paying too much for that pipeline, though it does not show up among his top holdings:

    http://bit.ly/1aHykVP

    If ONTY is dropped from the Russell 2000, there could be a better deal after. Aside from L-BLP25, anything that could potentially be described as a "Catalyst" is elusive, though. If shares trade at $1.50, no one is likely to give $15 in exchange for a contract entitling a purchase of 100 shares at $2 each.

    Barring something unpredictable, the pipeline might need to be clearly undervalued in order for this stock to make sense.
    Jun 24 10:10 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Oncothyreon Might Be Worth It [View article]
    ONTY is scheduled to be deleted from the Russell 2000, so there may be a better buying opportunity next month. Strike prices for options might not be conducive to writing calls, though.
    Jun 22 02:06 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Group 1 Automotive (GPI) says it's completed a $1.7B five-year revolving syndicated credit facility set to expire in June 2018 and can be expanded to $1.95B in total availability. The revolving facility will provide $1.38B for inventory floorplan financing as well as $320M for working capital, acquisitions and general corporate purposes. [View news story]
    I have been looking into this stock, only to find that Blue Mountain Capital, and also Oaktree Capital Management, have positions in the company's bonds.
    Jun 20 08:41 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Westpac Is Overvalued By Around 30% Making It A Solid Short Candidate [View article]
    This is has been an enjoyable article. It is informative and provoking. However, what concerns me is whether or not it describes a viewpoint that is ultimately on target (as I have repeatedly observed the author to be in the past). Having no opportunity to express my opinion about this stock through options, the decision involves whether or not to borrow and sell it.

    The current issue of The Economist has an article supporting visions of macroeconomic problems (only mentioning Australia specifically in the sixth paragraph).

    http://econ.st/17UsUaD

    It might be worth it to get $145 / share for WBK. Any new information would be helpful.
    Jun 17 10:31 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Vringo Vs. Google: Ongoing Royalty Prediction [View article]
    Anyone familiar with VRNG would probably agree that if you take a stake in it when it trades below $3, it can probably be unloaded at a profit shortly thereafter. However, from a layperson's perspective, a 2001 case, TV Toons v MP3.com, is eerily similar. It has resulted in a declaration of mistrial several months after a jury verdict in favor of the plaintiff based upon inaccurate mathematics.

    http://bit.ly/127M983

    It was Alan Brochstein who originally posted the link to this particular verdict, and because of it, VRNG is excessively risky for me. Though the stock has been actively followed, and may provide better real time information than many others as a result, I heard little pertaining to any ground for a mistrial before ceasing to click on headlines.

    As the author says, he has also been wrong (I do not know if he covered his HLF short, or perhaps has continued making dividend payments, on behalf of the company to its shareholders, but Congress may now be on his side...). Professor Ravicher's articles are of course preferred to those of any lawyer with inadequate knowledge of IP law who elicits outside payment, for inadequate coverage of the case, and gives a questionable reason of needing to defray PACER account costs.

    Competition is typically a good thing. Degradation is harmful.

    Meanwhile, I have an unanswered question: if a mistrial because of inconsistent math can not be ruled out, it would probably be declared in the near future?
    Jun 17 08:55 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Westpac Is Overvalued By Around 30% Making It A Solid Short Candidate [View article]
    Just eyeballing it, if the bounce continues to $145 prospects for borrowing and selling shares may be enticing. My preference is for creative personal expression using options, though.

    FSUMF.PK trades at just over $3 and I do not have the means to borrow the stock.

    It really is not as easy to know what is going on about China. Anybody who follows situations closely knows that accounting is consistently described as unreliable there (Also, they have apparently been undercounting consumption and James Chanos seems to have been changing his reasoning somewhat since)...From what I recall, they have four big banks...Anything reliant on iron ore or cement seems to be at highest risk...
    Jun 13 06:11 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • How To Play The Lululemon Athletica Earnings Announcement [View instapost]
    You were doing pretty well when at five out of five consecutive and profitable options trades. Ten out of ten was terrific.

    Due to weekly observation, your methodology is familiar. It causes wonder about whether a trend tends to be observable within every 13 trades or so?
    Jun 11 11:06 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
260 Comments
87 Likes