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Price Headley, CFA

 
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  • Market Outlook - The Fed, Earnings Season And GDP
    Mon, Jan. 26 VXX, DIA, IWM 2 Comments

    Summary

    • On Wednesday we'll hear from the Federal Reserve regarding any potential changes in interest rates.
    • On Friday, we'll get Q4's first guess (of three) regarding the nation's GDP growth rate. Economists currently believe we'll see a pace of 3.2%, following Q3's growth rate of 5.0%.
    • Although less than 20% of the S&P 500's companies have reported their fourth quarter earnings results, it's not too early to start examining and analyzing the numbers.
  • Market Outlook - Volatility Remains A Concern
    Tue, Jan. 20 DIA, IWM, QQQ 1 Comment

    Summary

    • Amid China volatility, Europe central bank expectations, and Swiss currency news, US economic news was a little discouraging last week.
    • Cheaper gasoline prices haven't boosted retail sales by any significant amount yet.
    • The markets are around key make-or-break junctures, while an overall rising VIX (and general volatility) continues to be a concern for the short-term bullish case.
  • Market Outlook - Yields Continue To Fall Despite Looming Fed
    Mon, Jan. 12 DIA, VXX, IWM 6 Comments

    Summary

    • Last week's employment report was legitimately good, but Fed minutes indicated an interest rate hike won't come until April at the earliest.
    • Stocks ended mildly lower last week and there are some concerning indicators on the short-term charts, however, the rebound ability of the broad market in recent years cannot be ignored.
    • Treasury Bonds continue to move higher (and yields lower), in what appears to be divergence from the Fed's intention of raising rates this year. The Fed may act slower than expected.
  • Market Outlook - Another January Swoon?
    Mon, Jan. 5 VXX, IWM, DIA 1 Comment

    Summary

    • The S&P 500 is now down 1.1% since the Christmas break, versus the average 1.8% gain we usually see during this period of the year.
    • While every month of the year has the occasional wildly bullish or wildly bearish swing, January is far more apt than other months to post an extreme move.
    • The coming week is going to be much busier on the economic front, with December's employment numbers and Fed minutes on the docket.
  • Market Outlook - Nasdaq Composite Picking Up Steam
    Dec. 29, 2014 DIA, IWM, QQQ 1 Comment

    Summary

    • Last week's Home Sales and Durable Goods numbers came in rather weak, but the Q3 GDP reading was strong.
    • The market (SPX & Nasdaq Composite) took out some key upside levels last week -- but it remains to be seen if this was just normal bullish Xmas holiday activity.
    • One possible concern for the S&P 500 is upward resistance from a trendline on the Weekly Chart.
  • Market Outlook - Crude Oil's New Important Range
    Dec. 22, 2014 DIA, VXX, IWM 2 Comments

    Summary

    • Most of last week's economic numbers were fairly strong and went along with the Fed's slightly more optimistic viewpoint.
    • The S&P 500 rebounded strongly late in the week, but failed to overtake the 2075 area that was its recent ceiling.
    • Crude oil may have just created an important new support/resistance area that will determine the next big directional move in the commodity.
  • Market Outlook - Capitulation Or Acceleration?
    Dec. 15, 2014 DIA, IWM, QQQ Comment!

    Summary

    • Last week was the worst net weekly move in the broad market since August 2011.
    • On the economic data, the consumer is fine while lack of inflation is a concern. The Fed announcement this week may have an impact.
    • There are some aspects of last week's stock market action that look capitulatory. However, any bounce needs to regain support and reverse indicators, or we could head back lower.
  • Market Outlook - Can The Nasdaq Comp And Russell 2k Give The Next Boost?
    Dec. 8, 2014 DIA, IWM, QQQ 1 Comment

    Summary

    • The jobs numbers last week were better than expected, but when you delve in they are perhaps not as good as the headlines implied.
    • Market trends remain bullish, but a somewhat complacent VIX and SPX not clearly moving above key levels are a concern.
    • The Nasdaq Composite and Russell 2000 could be gearing up to breathe new life into the broad stock rally.
  • Market Outlook - Grinding Higher Economy And Stocks
    Dec. 1, 2014 DIA, IWM, IYZ 1 Comment

    Summary

    • Economic data last week was on the whole mildly positive, continuing the recent trends.
    • Stock market momentum remains bullish, but has slowed a bit recently.
    • The Dow Jones Telecom Index has an interesting long term setup currently.
  • Market Outlook - Oil And Dollar At Crucial Long-Term Areas
    Nov. 24, 2014 UUP, DIA, VXX 2 Comments

    Summary

    • The overall trend for stocks remains positive, for the time being. The Fed was basically a non-event, it was Chinese & European stimulus that moved markets last week.
    • Economic data last week was mostly good, basically a continuation of trends in Industrial Production, Real Estate and Inflation.
    • Crude Oil & the Dollar Index have reached important long-term support & resistance areas, respectively. While the trends haven't reversed yet, this definitely bears watching here.
  • Market Outlook - Small But Growing Reasons To Be Concerned Here
    Nov. 17, 2014 DIA, IWM, QQQ 3 Comments

    Summary

    • The real story last week was the incredibly quiet, flat broad stock market action.
    • The overall picture remains bullish, but we're growingly concerned about flattening momentum, low upside volume and valuations, among other factors.
    • Among this week's economic reports, keep an eye on Capacity Utilization & Industrial Productivity -- there's been a correlation between those figures growing and the long-term bull market..
  • Market Outlook - Where We Stand Now After The Volatility
    Nov. 10, 2014 DIA, IWM, QQQ 3 Comments

    Summary

    • The October employment numbers were encouraging, even when you delve under the surface of them.
    • The market is grinding higher amid low volumes, there are key levels to watch both overhead and below current levels.
    • Valuation is still a concern in the long-term big picture -- a 12% to 13% gain for the broad market over the next year is pushing it, valuation-wise.
  • Market Outlook - Biggest 2 Week Gain Since 2009
    Nov. 3, 2014 DIA, IWM, QQQ 2 Comments

    Summary

    • The last time the S&P 500 advanced 7% in two calendar weeks was in July of 2009. That gain was in the very early stages of the bull market though.
    • It's been quite a roller coaster ride recently, but the bigger trend remains bullish. Valuations are getting stretched though, and another pullback wouldn't be surprising.
    • GDP & Consumer Sentiment data last week was strong. Unemployment data is upcoming for this Friday and will be widely followed.
  • Market Outlook - Positive Momentum, Overhead Resistance And Valuations
    Oct. 27, 2014 DIA, IWM, QQQ 3 Comments

    Summary

    • The 'V' shaped bottom has already reversed much of the recent losses in the broad market.
    • However, there is now overhead resistance to worry about, as well as the fact that the VIX remains relatively elevated, which shows option traders remain somewhat concerned.
    • In the big picture, the long term trend is still bullish, but valuations are becoming a concern again here at the higher levels.
  • Market Outlook - Will The Bounce Have Legs?
    Oct. 20, 2014 DIA, IWM, QQQ 2 Comments

    Summary

    • Amid all the volatility, the US economic data last week (Retail Sales, Industrial Production / Capacity Utilization, Housing Starts) was actually fairly strong.
    • A near-term bounce in the broad market looks likely, but we're concerned about overhead resistance it would then face.
    • We're heading into what is normally a seasonally-bullish time of year, but things are still rather precarious here and caution is warranted going forward.
  • Market Outlook - Can The 200-Day Moving Average Halt The Downtrend?
    Oct. 13, 2014 DIA, IWM, QQQ 8 Comments

    Summary

    • Not only was last week the worst week we've seen for stocks all year, it was the worst week we've seen since May of 2012.
    • While Fed Minutes this week were dovish to be sure, they were unable to halt to the resumption of selling in stocks.
    • We ended around the 200-day moving average on the S&P 500 - that area will be key over the coming days/weeks. If we rebound, watch SPX 1965 on upside.
  • Market Outlook - Morning Star Vs. Death Cross
    Oct. 6, 2014 VXX, DIA, IWM 6 Comments

    Summary

    • The actual unemployment rate dip last week may have been a bit exaggerated by the fact that the total labor force somehow fell by nearly 100,000 people.
    • Ever heard of a "Morning Star" Japanese Candlestick chart pattern? Well, Wednesday, Thursday, and Friday were almost a textbook example of a bullish morning star on the SPX.
    • Weakness on the long-term Russell 2000 chart is still a major concern, as this index tends to lead the market both up and down.
  • Weekly Market Outlook - Warning Alarm Or Healthy Pullback?
    Sep. 29, 2014 DIA, QQQ, IWM 2 Comments

    Summary

    • The market breached into cautious territory last week for the first time since early/mid August on our combined Daily/Weekly mechanical perspective.
    • There is good reason to be a bit worried here about further downside in the broad stock market, but similar pullbacks have been contained in 2014.
    • The NASDAQ Volatility Index is around a key level, and the 50 day moving average on the S&P 500 Index is also important here.
  • Market Outlook: Long-Term Uptrend Remains Intact
    Sep. 22, 2014 DIA, IWM, VXX 2 Comments

    Summary

    • Yellen's stimulative policies are going to continue for quite some time -- and the economic data seen last week seems to back her dovish approach.
    • While the S&P 500 made another new high, the Nasdaq Composite is again bumping up against resistance.
    • A bearish outlook for stocks may have some merit short-term, but longer-term the picture remains bullish until proven otherwise.
  • Market Outlook - Nasdaq Concerns
    Sep. 16, 2014 DIA, IWM, QQQ 1 Comment

    Summary

    • Monday's loss may not have been a big one, but it certainly wasn't an encouraging step in the right direction following last week's dip.
    • The most alarming red flag is the NASDAQ Composite's short-term breakdown and a rise in the NASDAQ Volatility Index.
    • Remember that September and early October are generally weak periods for stocks, and the August rally may have further set up a calendar-based lull.
  • Market Outlook - Walking The High Wire
    Sep. 8, 2014 DIA, IWM, QQQ 5 Comments

    Summary

    • The jobs report last week was on the weak side of the spectrum; investors jumped in assuming the Federal Reserve was going to nip any problems in the bud.
    • While technical momentum for stocks remains overall bullish, the market has now gone 64 months without a correction of 10% more - one is overdue. And valuations aren't cheap currently.
    • However, the market has had a funny way of defying the odds for months at a time. Case in point: valuations in the 90s. The VIX can also remain low.
  • Market Outlook - Avoid Over-Exuberance As September Begins
    Sep. 2, 2014 DIA, IWM, VXX 7 Comments

    Summary

    • Based on nothing but momentum, it's tough to come to anything but a bullish conclusion after dissecting last week's market action.
    • Potential red flag is the Dow Jones Industrial Average failing to close at record highs last week. And a bull market that is stretched by historical standards.
    • September is, on average, the worst month of all for the NASDAQ Composite, and is also normally one of the worst for the S&P 500.
  • Market Outlook - Will Last Week's Breakout Stick?
    Aug. 25, 2014 DIA, IWM, QQQ 2 Comments

    Summary

    • Fed Chief Yellen soothed the market's worries about a quicker interest rate hike last week.
    • Real estate, consumer sentiment and estimated GDP numbers are on tap for this week.
    • The stock market broke above some key resistance last week. However the follow-through was weak and the upside momentum may be slowing.
  • Market Outlook - Walking A Fine Line Here
    Aug. 18, 2014 VXX, IWM, DIA 2 Comments

    Summary

    • Capacity utilization ramped up from 79.1% to 79.2%, while productivity grew by 0.4%. As long as these two data sets are rising, the country remains in state of economic expansion.
    • S&P 500 charts are something of a mixed bag, depending on the time frame, though more bullish than bearish.
    • NASDAQ Composite has also shown strength, but for a third time has butted up against a key resistance level.
  • Market Outlook - Bullish Undertones After Recent Weakness
    Aug. 11, 2014 DIA, IWM, QQQ Comment!

    Summary

    • Capacity utilization and productivity numbers don't have much impact on the market's near-term swing, but the correlation between then and the long-term market is uncanny. They've been pointing higher.
    • As has been the case four times before, the S&P 500 100-day moving average held firm again, stopping the downtrend (at least for now).
    • Bolstering the bullish argument is that the VIX seems to have hit a ceiling of its own around 17.3. However, Russell 2k and Nasdaq Composite underperformance is a concern.
  • Market Outlook - Valuation Trepidation
    Aug. 4, 2014 DIA, IWM, QQQ 2 Comments

    Summary

    • Back in late-2012 the market's trailing P/E was a reasonable 14.6. Now it's a frothier 17.6, and had been as high as 17.7 at one point last month.
    • Since late-2011, the P/E ratio has somehow managed to rise because stocks have ascended faster than earnings have - that's a dangerous situation.
    • The S&P 500 broke under its key 50-day moving average line at 1953 for the first time since April.
  • Market Outlook - Busy Week On Tap
    Jul. 28, 2014 DIA, IWM, QQQ 1 Comment

    Summary

    • Beyond earnings reports, this week is going to be considerably busier in terms of economic numbers (Consumer Confidence, GDP, Employment).
    • If the market does pull back further, there are key SPX moving averages and Fibonacci retracement levels that are converging here and should provide support down below.
    • The VIX has yet to even surpass the key 13.3 level, indicating option traders aren't overly concerned about the market at this point.
  • Market Outlook - SPX 20 Day Moving Average Violated
    Jul. 21, 2014 DIA, IWM, QQQ 2 Comments

    Summary

    • Last Thursday's plunge led to the first close on the S&P 500 Index below the 20-day moving average lines since May.
    • The CBOE Volatility Index VIX was a pretty clear mirror image of the S&P 500 last week, surging on Thursday, but peeling back on Friday.
    • While the charts and the rhetoric may imply the broad market is in "ok" shape, the reality is, Thursday's drubbing showed how vulnerable the market is at this point.
  • Market Outlook - Key SPX And VIX Levels To Watch
    Jul. 14, 2014 DIA, IWM, QQQ 1 Comment

    Summary

    • Amid earnings season, this week's most important economic data will likely be underappreciated...capacity utilization and industrial productivity. Economists are looking for progress on both fronts, data is released Wednesday.
    • Although the overbought S&P 500 Index lost ground last week, the key 20-day moving average line at 1961.28 is still acting as a floor.
    • The CBOE Volatility Index is facing a key hurdle at 13.0. A move above the 13.0 level, in fact, would represent something of a paradigm shift for the VIX.
  • Market Outlook - This Rally Is Getting A Bit Steep
    Jul. 7, 2014 DIA, IWM, QQQ 10 Comments

    Summary

    • Employment data last week was good, not great. This week doesn't hold much other than the Fed minutes release and the beginning of earnings reports.
    • This current twelve-week, 9.3% runup in the S&P 500 is an unusually large and unusually long advance.
    • The SPX is now 8.4% above the 200-day moving average line, and the CBOE Volatility Index closed at a multi-year low of 10.30 on Thursday.
  • Market Outlook - Nasdaq Hits Multi-Year Highs Amid A Risky Environment
    Jun. 30, 2014 DIA, IWM, VXX 1 Comment

    Summary

    • The economic data released last week was overall very good, with the exception of Q1 GDP.
    • The VIX and S&P 500 P/E ratio are nearing dangerous valuations, but at the same time the Nasdaq Composite just broke through to new highs.
    • Just because the market's overdue for a dip doesn't mean we're guaranteed to see it soon. Assume the trend currently in motion will remain in motion until proven otherwise.
  • Market Outlook - Is The Market Melting Up?
    Jun. 23, 2014 DIA, IWM, QQQ 5 Comments

    Summary

    • The broad stock market momentum is attractive, it may even constitute a dangerous meltup. The near-term SPX ceiling is the 2000 level.
    • The market loves to use big round numbers as floors and ceilings, and a move to 2000 on the S&P 500 would mean a 7% gain since mid-May.
    • On the NASDAQ Composite, a near-term problem is that the index has once again stalled at 4372, like it did in early March.