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Price Headley, CFA
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Price Headley was inducted into the Traders' Hall of Fame in 2007 and is the founder of BigTrends.com, which provides investors with specific real-time stock and options strategies and investment education to profit from significant market trends. Price appears regularly on CNBC, Fox News, and... More
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  • 2014 Preakness Picks & Analysis From BigTrends.com

    Price Headley, CEO of BigTrends.com: The second leg of the Triple Crown happens this Saturday at Pimlico racecourse outside Baltimore, and my comments about California Chrome (Post Position 3, morning line odds 3-5) as a legitimate contender for the first Triple Crown in 36 years still stand. The horse was hand ridden to victory in the Derby and should be fresh for this race. His draw in the number 3 post position was also favorable.

    The race is 1-3/16 miles (1/16 short than the Derby) and the weather should be good Saturday for a fast track. The only pending question here in my view is who gets 2nd and 3rd. At 3-5 morning line odds, it's not worth betting Chrome to win, we need to pair him with other horses to get a decent payoff.

    Here's my assessment:

    I think there will be plenty of speed in this race with Social Inclusion and a couple of others battling on the front end. I expect this sets up for closers to finish well to get 2nd and maybe Social Inclusion can hang on for 3rd.

    I like the local horse Kid Cruz (PP 7, 20-1) as he won on this track in the Tesio stakes last month with a strong closing kick, and I figure he can pick up the pieces for 2nd place.

    I think Ride on Curlin (PP 10, 10-1) will also have a good closing kick, and Dynamic Impact (PP 1, 12-1)and Bayern (PP 5, 10-1) are wildcards that have an outsiders shot at 3rd or 4th. So here's my play on a model portfolio:

    $10 Exacta 3 on top of 7,10
    $2 Trifecta 3 on top of 7,10 on top of 7,10, 1, 5

    Good Luck!

    Moby Waller, Portfolio Manager at BigTrends.com: This year's Preakness is a terrible betting race, due to California Chrome being such a huge (and deserved) favorite. Price & myself both correctly picked Chrome to win the Kentucky Derby, but neither of us had the 2nd place longshot horse and that messed up our Exacta & Trifecta wagers.

    The Preakness is normally a race where closers do not win, and it often seems to run as a shorter race than its 1 3/16 length would indicate. However, there isn't nearly as much impressive speed in this race as there was in the Deby, so I think some late runners could finish in the money.

    There is a story out there about huge favorite Chrome having a cough, so take that for what it's worth -

    I put California Chrome (PP 3, 3-5) on top. In order to make the betting on this race somewhat potentially lucrative, I threw out the second betting choice of Social Inclusion, as the morning line odds of 5-1 were too low for this horse relative to the other contenders.

    Next I chose Kid Cruz (PP 7, 20-1), who can close, won last time out at the this Pimico race course, and has nice odds.

    Then, Ride On Curlin (PP 10, 10-1) who also can close, has had consistent speed numbers, and ran a decent Derby despite a criticized Borel ride (new jockey this race).

    Next I looked at a lot of these horses, but settled on Dynamic Impact (PP 1, 12-1) - won his last 2 races with decent speed times.

    Theoretical Wagers:

    $5 Exacta 3 with 7/10/1
    $2 Exacta Box 3 7 10 1
    $2 Trifecta Box 3 7 10 1
    $5 Win Place Show on 7,10

    May 16 11:44 AM | Link | 2 Comments
  • 2014 Kentucky Derby Picks & Analysis From BigTrends.com

    Price Headley, CEO of BigTrends.com:

    It's time for our annual KY Derby selections and commentary. First, we'll start off with an updated table of past Derby winners, their speed ratings and final tune-up race. Our analysis of past data indicates that horses with strong 100+ speed ratings in prep races have a better probability of winning the big race.

    Derby Winner

    BRIS Speed Rating

    Last race (# weeks before Derby)

    ORB

    97, 102

    Florida Derby (5 weeks)

    I'LL HAVE ANOTHER

    95, 102

    Santa Anita Derby (4 weeks)

    ANIMAL KINGDOM

    100, 89

    Turfway Spiral (5 weeks, poly)

    SUPER SAVER

    92, 94

    Arkansas Derby (3 weeks)

    MINE THAT BIRD

    96, 98

    Sunland Derby (5 weeks)

    BIG BROWN

    106, 104

    Florida Derby (5 weeks)

    STREET SENSE

    98, 101

    Bluegrass Stakes (3 weeks, poly)

    BARBARO

    104, 104, 97, 97

    Florida Derby (5 weeks)

    GIACOMO

    100, 96, 98, 96

    Santa Anita Derby (4 weeks)

    SMARTY JONES

    105, 109, 101, 103

    Arkansas Derby (3 weeks)

    FUNNY CIDE

    111, 103, 97

    Wood Memorial (3 weeks)

    WAR EMBLEM

    109, 105, 88, 94

    Illinois Derby (4 weeks)

    MONARCHOS

    108, 108, 106, 98

    Wood Memorial (3 weeks)

    FUSAICHI PEGASUS

    110, 103, 100, 98

    Wood Memorial (3 weeks)

    CHARISMATIC

    104, 94, 94, 94

    Lexington (2 weeks)

    REAL QUIET

    107, 103, 73

    Santa Anita Derby (4 weeks)

    SILVER CHARM

    102, 98, 105

    Santa Anita Derby (4 weeks)

    GRINDSTONE

    101, 102, 93

    Arkansas Derby (3 weeks)

    THUNDER GULCH

    98, 103, 106

    Blue Grass (3 weeks)

    GO FOR GIN

    104, 105, 99, 100

    Wood Memorial (3 weeks)

    SEA HERO

    96, 85, 77

    Blue Grass (3 weeks)

    LIL E. TEE

    102, 96, 107, 100

    Arkansas Derby (2 weeks)

    STRIKE THE GOLD

    109, 100, 99, 87

    Blue Grass (3 weeks)

    UNBRIDLED

    108, 101, 104, 98

    Blue Grass (3 weeks)

    My favorite in this year's race is California Chrome (Post Position 5, 5-2 odds). This is not a bold pick but he's by far the class in the field, having won his last 4 races by a combined 25+ lengths. He truly looks like the best chance at a Triple Crown winner in many years (remember we haven't had a horse win all three jewels of the Crown since Affirmed held off Alydar to win it all back in 1978).

    I would not be surprised to see the favorite go off closer to 2-1, which is very short odds in a 19-horse field. The Derby usually favors closers and horses that want the extra ground. Typically this doesn't show up on paper yet for these colts, as they've only gone 1-1/8 miles or less, and the Derby is 1-1/4 miles. That last 1/8 of a mile (also known as a "furlong" in the racing biz) is what separates the champions from the also-rans.

    We should have a beautiful sunny day with no rain at Churchill Downs for this year's Derby as well.

    With those thoughts in mind, here are my top challengers to California Chrome:

    Dance with Fate (PP 12, 20-1): Looking for value here among the horse that won their last prep race. Dance with Fate won the Blue Grass at Keeneland impressive, though his speed rating in that race was only 99. Keeneland has been one of those hard to judge preps because of the Polytrack surface, which makes this pick a high risk, high reward play. But given that Street Sense won the Derby off a similarly slow Blue Grass win, I like the value here for win bets.

    Wicked Strong (PP 20, 6-1): Awesome closing kick in the Wood Memorial win, now he's on everyone's radar as a logical second choice. The outside post position (the 20 horse just scratched) is not a huge issue for a closer, as he will settle in towards the back early and get a rail trip to save distance. Just not a super value here, but must consider in exotic bets.

    Samraat (PP 6, 15-1): Gets my vote for Mr. Consistency, ran a game second in the Wood but seems to lack the closing kick to actually win it. Like him to get on the board though in 2nd or more likely 3rd.

    Ride on Curlin (PP 19, 15-1): Closed strong in the Arkansas Derby behind longshot winner Danza. Gets the wily jock Calvin Borel (they call him "Bo-Rail" at the Derby for his savvy wins on longshot Mine that Bird and Street Sense). Something tells me Cal will be close at the finish. Call it a hunch play.

    So my theoretical bets on a sample $100 model portfolio look like this:

    $10 Win on 12
    $6 Win on 20
    $4 Win on 19
    $5 Exacta box 5,12
    $5 Exacta box 5,19
    $5 Exacta box 5,20
    $1 Trifecta 5 with 12 with ALL
    $1 Trifecta 5 with 20 with ALL
    $1 Trifecta 5 with 19 with 20
    $1 Trifecta 5 with 19 with 6
    $1 Trifecta 5 with 6 with 19
    $1 Trifecta 5 with 6 with 20

    Moby Waller, Portfolio Manager, BigTrends.com:

    We've had a lot of rain recently in Kentucky (and it's been cold here, like in most of the country), but the forecast for Louisville on Saturday looks fairly dry and warm - should be a fast track.

    Looks like there are a lot of front-running speed type horses in this year's Derby. A horse who can stalk a bit off the pace and/or close strongly is likely to win in my view.

    California Chrome (PP 5, 5-2) is the obvious favorite here, with 4 very strong wins in a row. I have to put the favorite on top in this case, as much as I would like not to. Jockey/horse would do better to stalk the pace rather than try to lead from early on.

    Wicked Strong (PP 20, 6-1) looks ready to run a big race and can handle the distance, but the far out post position could hinder.

    Danza (PP 4, 8-1) finished the last race very well and looks to like the track here.

    Medal Count (PP 14, 20-1) can close and is bred for long distance, hasn't done much on dirt but seems to like the track.

    Suggested theoretical wagers (all exotics, based on having a favorite in there):

    $2 Exacta Box: 5, 20, 4, 14 = $24
    $2 Trifecta Box: 5, 20, 4, 14 = $48

    Others to put in for Exotics:
    Dance With Fate (PP 12, 20-1)
    Intense Holiday (PP 16, 8-1)
    Candy Boy (PP 18, 15-1)

    $2 Exacta Box: 5, 12, 16, 18 = $24

    Alternate Scenario Exotic:

    $1 Exacta Box: 1, 6, 10, 13, 19 = $20

    Total 4 Bets = $116

    From Forbes: "The Derby exacta payouts over the last five years have been (at the $2 increment): $981.60, $306.60, $329.80, $152.40 and $2074.80".

    May 02 10:59 AM | Link | Comment!
  • 2013 Belmont Horse Race Handicapping And Analysis From BigTrends.com

    Price Headley:

    This is the toughest Belmont to handicap in the 14 years since I started my Triple Crown analysis after the launch of BigTrends.com. It may be wet at the New York track and while Orb liked the wet conditions in the Derby and is the sentimental favorite for the owners in their home state, at 3-1 I'm looking for more value in a fairly wide open race. So here's what I'm liking:

    1) Overanalyze (Post Position 3, 12-1): He's a closer and the misfire in the Derby aside, he's won on the Belmont track and sets up well if the pace is more reasonably than it was in the Preakness (which is why I'm also throwing out Preakness winner Oxbow).

    2) Revolutionary (PP 9, 9-2): One of the most consistent horses after Orb, I look for a solid late stretch run from this one.

    3) Orb (PP 5, 3-1): Orb is bred to love the extra distance and looked like he liked the slop too. The main question mark is why he didn't fire at all in the Preakness and if the horse is right health-wise for this race. If he is he's tough to beat, but I'm thinking that the connections waffled a bit on whether to run him here and that makes me wonder if Orb is really 100%.

    Also interested in Vyjack (PP 11, 20-1) as well as Golden Soul (PP 14, 10-1) and the filly Unlimited Budget (PP 13, 8-1). A big wildcard is Freedom Child (PP 2, 8-1).

    Hypothetical Betting Portfolio:

    $10 Win on #3

    $10 Win on #11

    $4 Exacta Box 3,5,9,11

    $1 Trifecta Box 3,5,9 with 3,5,9,11 with 2,3,5,9,13,14

    Moby Waller:

    I agree with Price that this is a difficult Belmont to handicap. Orb could bounce back with a monster performance and win easily, but he just didn't look right in the Preakness (yet still finished 4th). I think he'll probably be 3rd or 4th again the Belmont. And are we both making a big mistake by writing off the chances of Preakness winner Oxbow?

    For this year's race, I preferred rested horses who have shown they can gain ground at distance - also ones that have done well in a sloppy/muddy track, as we likely will have on Saturday at the Belmont (but check the updated weather on Saturday if that is a factor for you):

    1) Revolutionary (PP 9, 9/2)
    2) Golden Soul (PP 14, 10/1)
    3) Freedom Child (PP 2, 8/1)
    4) Orb (PP 5, 3/1)

    Theoretical Wagers:

    $1 Exacta Box (9, 14, 2, 5)
    $1 Trifecta Box (9, 14, 2, 5)

    Good Luck!

    Price Headley,
    BigTrends.com
    1-800-244-8736

    Jun 07 8:55 AM | Link | Comment!
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