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  • Bancolombia: Buy This Fast-Growing Bank At 5-Year Lows [View article]
    Great article. One other concern of mine is housing bubble...all over the news there for quite sometime. Any thoughts? Also loans there are very different from US. Own vs rent is more than 5X more expensive in the average case. Everyone buys an apartment before its built to sell at an astronomical price when complete. Lots of building going on, how long can that last?
    Mar 14, 2015. 12:53 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Ally Financial - Buy Before ROE Expansion [View article]
    Grabbed a bunch of shares when they dipped under $20, starting to think 2017 call buying / put selling may be the better way to go. Any thoughts?
    Dec 31, 2014. 12:28 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Best Long Idea For 2015: BNCCORP [View article]
    Looking back at a chart shows a lot of recovery, like other banks, but one thing to remember is this bank was hit hard by a fraud, followed by a drop in refinance fee income that management took advantage of when everyone wanted a lower rate. Fast forward to today, and investors get an actual core earnings picture, and shares trade at book when ROE is high teens to 20%. In my opinion, this indicates zero premium for location and zero premium for leverage and any upside in earnings that could come from a larger loan portfolio and further cost savings. Preferred shares may look bad but the bank's returns are higher then they cost, and as earnings are added to equity the bank will eventually be able to pay them off. Not to mention that their presence on the book is likely extending the time investors have to slowly add shares.
    I think the bank could do a better job adding services to sell to the customers that keep adding cash to deposits. Short-term it will be interesting to see how interest rate changes affect earnings and the equity account (risk or opportunity?).
    Dec 20, 2014. 10:14 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • BNCCORP Looks To Continue Its Chart-Topping Performance [View article]
    Very nice write-up, as always! You know, I'm a little timid with sale prices but this is an interesting one because the bank isn't only in North Dakota. I personally think they could solve some of their own problems by looking to sell/close the Arizona office and other small mortgage banking branches in Kansas. I can't imagine a bank with a large security portfolio is making much money from operations that only add ~14% (Arizona office) to the loan book, and if I'm wrong in that, the sale could fetch a larger price tag. These non-N.Dakota offices may also be holding back some buyers. With this in mind, almost every other player in the state is private and I think (as I'm sure you do) the multiple on tangible value that one would pay for the assets is closer to 2 (and possibly higher) than the 1.5X that you conservatively mentioned in your article. Either way, shares are on sale and unlike most other small banks, the ROE at BNCC makes waiting/no-sale profitable for investors.
    I personally would like to be a part of this long-term. Would be great to see a bank like Alerus make a bid. Short-term, we could see some oil/gas selling, long-term I am a little afraid of interest rate risk (which could affect book value/sale price).
    Nice to hear I'm in on one of your best ideas prior to announcing it. All the best!
    Dec 17, 2014. 08:51 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • National Bankshares Is In The Buy Zone [View article]
    I checked and honestly can't find information about the options, I didn't look too hard (not available on google and my broker doesn't have any listed).

    Hard to speculate but maybe because the owner saw that earnings would not beat last years performance, if timed correctly the position was a win for the holder.

    I have a screenshot of the loan portfolio in the article, mostly commercial loans.
    Dec 10, 2014. 10:21 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Valuation Gap Between Coca-Cola And Exxon Mobil [View article]
    Reported earnings do not equal funds available to deploy. All the best.
    Dec 3, 2014. 03:23 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Valuation Gap Between Coca-Cola And Exxon Mobil [View article]
    Nice article, but you may want to run those numbers again using free cash flow.
    Dec 2, 2014. 09:10 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • National Bankshares Is In The Buy Zone [View article]
    Thank you, I also appreciate your instablog posts. I'm actually working on a UBOH article, you have a great eye!
    Nov 26, 2014. 08:15 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • There's A Better Way To Profit From First Citizens Banc [View article]
    Thank you I appreciate the compliments. Hope you have a great holiday.
    Nov 26, 2014. 05:50 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is Now The Time To Buy City Holding Company? [View article]
    Thank you loonsong!
    Nov 24, 2014. 09:40 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Update: BNCCORP, Inc. Q3 Earnings [View article]
    North Dakota operations are the main earnings driver. Majority of loan portfolio and deposits are from ND. The annual report does a good job showing everything by region:

    http://bit.ly/11BREnJ
    Nov 19, 2014. 08:08 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Update: Valley Financial Corporation Q3 Earnings [View article]
    Thank you, may have got the direction right but I was honestly hoping this would be an option for a long time, BNCN got a good one.
    Nov 17, 2014. 03:21 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is It Time To Buy Citizens & Northern? [View article]
    Hello dapizz I really appreciate the compliment. In this sector you really get to see a little bit of everything and the pre-payments and early pay penalties are a regular occurrence, but typically only done by banks with a strong capital position. If you like this bank you may want to check out FCBC, similar story/situation. Thanks again.
    Nov 12, 2014. 08:05 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Energy XXI: High Cost, High Leverage, Weak Energy Prices, Good Short? [View article]
    Thank you for the article. Guess someone's not selling today +16%...
    Nov 7, 2014. 11:23 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Shares Of Middleburg Financial Fall As The Bank Gets Better, Does That Make It A Buy? [View article]
    Thank you Adrian you too!
    Nov 7, 2014. 11:09 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
286 Comments
74 Likes