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  • Xinyuan Real Estate: Board Resignations And A 2015 Outlook
    Fri, Jan. 23 XIN 6 Comments

    Summary

    • Two board members resigned at the end of 2014.
    • Former CFO, Tom Gurnee, has returned to the company to be the Chairman of the Audit Committee.
    • The property market in mainland China is not expected to make a strong recovery in 2015.
    • The stock trades at roughly one-fifth of its tangible book value.
  • Silver Standard: The Downside Of Record Production
    Tue, Jan. 20 SSRI 4 Comments

    Summary

    • Silver Standard achieved record annual silver production in 2014.
    • The company also achieved record quarterly gold production in Q4 2014.
    • Increasing production when gold and silver prices are low can be viewed negatively.
    • The stock still has room to run higher on a technical basis.
  • Heavy Insider Selling At Fortuna Silver Mines
    Mon, Jan. 12 FSM 1 Comment

    Summary

    • Insiders sold nearly 1.3 million shares in the past six months.
    • FSM has a high price/book ratio relative to other silver miners.
    • Investors are paying more than $10 per silver ounce in reserves & resources.
  • Silver Miners Insider Activity Report: Who's Buying? Who's Selling?
    Fri, Jan. 9 AG, CDE, EXK Comment!

    Summary

    • 4 silver producers had net insider purchases in the past six months.
    • 2 had no insider purchases or sales.
    • 5 had net insider sales.
  • Pan American Silver: Founder Ross Beaty Buys 500k Shares, But Mining Costs Are Too High
    Tue, Jan. 6 PAAS 3 Comments

    Summary

    • The founder and current Chairman bought 500k shares in late December.
    • Only a couple other insiders have bought in the past six months.
    • All-in sustaining and cash costs have not improved in the past year.
  • The Outlook For Palladium In 2015
    Mon, Jan. 5 SPPP, PALL Comment!

    Summary

    • Palladium supply will increase in 2015.
    • Auto sales in 2015 should set another record high.
    • Purchases by ETFs should decrease this year.
  • Contango Is Working Against U.S. Oil ETF Investors
    Mon, Jan. 5 USO 4 Comments

    Summary

    • WTI crude oil is in a state of contango, which will cost USO shareholders roughly 17 cents per share this month.
    • The net long position for speculators is still too high.
    • A V-shaped recovery in oil is unlikely.
  • Silver Standard Is Undervalued Compared To Hecla And Pan American
    Thu, Jan. 1 SSRI 4 Comments

    Summary

    • Investors are paying only 24 cents for each silver equivalent ounce in reserves & resources.
    • Hecla and Pan American investors are paying more than one dollar.
    • SSRI has a lower price/book ratio than Hecla and Pan American.
    • SSRI's operational cash flow in Q4 should be negative.
  • The Outlook For Silver In 2015
    Dec. 31, 2014 SLV, AGQ, USLV 18 Comments

    Summary

    • Analysts expect demand for silver to increase in 2015.
    • Some believe mine supply will increase, while some believe it will decrease.
    • The price indicators for silver are mostly in a neutral position.
  • $50 Oil Won't Be A Problem For Atlas Resource Partners
    Dec. 23, 2014 ARP 10 Comments

    Summary

    • ARP cut its expected cash distribution for 2015 from $2.40 to $2.36 per share.
    • The majority of ARP's production is natural gas.
    • Almost 70% of 2015 oil production has been hedged at much higher prices.
  • Silver's Bear Market Could Continue For 2-3 More Years Due To Increasing Mine Supply
    Dec. 10, 2014 AG, FNLPF, FSM 19 Comments

    Summary

    • Mine supply of silver is expected to increase for two or three more years.
    • First Majestic, Fortuna, and Fresnillo are examples of miners that will be increasing production.
    • More supply when the silver price is already depressed could mean even lower silver prices.
  • Penn West Is Undervalued Compared To Pengrowth, Enerplus And Baytex
    Dec. 7, 2014 PWE 34 Comments

    Summary

    • New investors are paying only $2.30 for each boe in proven & probable reserves.
    • PWE has a significantly lower price/book ratio than Enerplus and Baytex.
    • PWE is investing to grow production to 140,000 boe per day by the end of the decade.
  • Tahoe Resources: One Of The Few Mining Stocks I Would Invest In
    Dec. 3, 2014 TAHO Comment!

    Summary

    • Tahoe's Escobal mine has a long mine life and very low mining costs.
    • Operating cash flow far exceeds cap-ex spending at Tahoe.
    • Tahoe only has one mine, which makes the stock a little risky.
    • Royalty rates will be increased from 5% to 10%.
  • A Red Friday For Gold Miners Creates A Trading Opportunity
    Nov. 30, 2014 GDX 7 Comments

    Summary

    • OPEC's decision not to lower output triggered a sell-off in gold stocks.
    • The price of oil dropped by 10%.
    • Lower oil prices should benefit gold miners because they rely heavily on large machinery that use diesel fuel.
  • First Majestic Silver: Is There Any Hope For This Beaten Down Miner?
    Nov. 26, 2014 AG 14 Comments

    Summary

    • First Majestic has been underperforming its peers in the silver mining sector.
    • First Majestic's cash level has been dropping.
    • Mining costs have risen from Q1 to Q3, but is expected to decline in Q4 and next year.
  • How Long And How Much Can Silver Rally?
    Nov. 23, 2014 SLV, SIL, SIVR 7 Comments

    Summary

    • Silver made a significant bottom two weeks ago.
    • Silver should be able to rally for at least a few more weeks.
    • Recent rallies in silver have been modest.
  • Xinyuan Real Estate: An Aggressive Growth Strategy Gone Wrong
    Nov. 12, 2014 XIN 10 Comments

    Summary

    • Xinyuan remained profitable despite missing badly on revenues.
    • Sales were very light at several of their residential housing projects.
    • Total debt continued to grow.
    • TPG Capital has done nothing for XIN, and it looks like TPG may want to get out completely.
  • Insiders Are Not Buying These Gold Mining Stocks
    Nov. 7, 2014 GDX 30 Comments

    Summary

    • Insiders have not been buying gold mining stocks.
    • Tax-loss selling season is just around the corner.
    • An interim bottom for GDX might have occurred on Wednesday, but it is probably headed for lower lows in the future.
  • Seabridge Gold: Buying Gold For Only $3 Per Ounce
    Nov. 6, 2014 SA 6 Comments

    Summary

    • Seabridge has massive gold reserves and resources in Canada.
    • The market is valuing those gold reserves and resources at less than $3 per ounce.
    • The ore at KSM is low-grade and the development cap-ex is very high.
  • Silver: The Economic Conditions Are Not Ideal For A Sustained Rally (Part 1)
    Nov. 4, 2014 SLV 5 Comments

    Summary

    • Industrial demand consumed 60% of total silver supply last year.
    • Many important markets in the world are not growing economically, but China and India are still growing rapidly.
    • Fears of an economic slowdown are hurting the silver price.
  • Silver Standard: Q3 Earnings Preview And A Look Beyond
    Nov. 4, 2014 SSRI Comment!

    Summary

    • Silver Standard will report earnings on Wednesday.
    • Revenue will increase significantly due to better than expected gold and silver production.
    • Q3 numbers should be okay, but Q4 is looking like a disaster so far.
    • Marigold should be a cash flow machine.
  • Goldcorp Looks Expensive Compared To Other Gold Stocks
    Nov. 3, 2014 GG 13 Comments

    Summary

    • Goldcorp missed production and earnings estimates in Q3.
    • Goldcorp has over 54 million ounces of gold reserves and over 800 million ounces of silver reserves.
    • The stock appears expensive when compared to other big cap gold stocks based on its gold and silver reserves.
  • A Few Reasons To Be Bullish On Silver
    Oct. 28, 2014 SLV, AGQ, USLV 21 Comments

    Summary

    • Silver usually performs positively during the last two months of the year.
    • The gold-silver ratio is approaching extreme levels on the high side.
    • Hedge funds still hold nearly record short positions on the COMEX.
  • How Will GLD Respond After QE3 Ends?
    Oct. 25, 2014 GLD 33 Comments

    Summary

    • QE3 is expected to end this coming week.
    • GLD went up after QE1 and QE2 ended.
    • The end of QE3 is already priced into the gold price.
  • 3 Reasons Gold Stocks May Not Have Bottomed Yet
    Oct. 24, 2014 GDXJ, GDX 4 Comments

    Summary

    • Gold stocks may not have capitulated yet.
    • More weak companies in the mining industry need to be cleaned out.
    • Gold and silver production is still growing, and has not peaked yet.
  • Exeter Resource: A Takeover Candidate With A More Feasible Mine Plan
    Oct. 21, 2014 XRA 4 Comments

    Summary

    • Rick Rule was negative on XRA last year.
    • Exeter has since revised its mine plan for Caspiche.
    • Exeter has $35 million in cash and no debt.
    • An acquisition of Exeter by Kinross makes sense.
  • Silver Can Trade Below Its All-In Cost Of Production
    Oct. 19, 2014 SLV, SIL, BHP 14 Comments

    Summary

    • Silver is mostly produced as a by-product of copper, lead, zinc, etc.
    • Most of the top silver producers are not primary silver producers.
    • Silver can trade below its all-in cost of production longer than I originally thought.
  • What Should Silver Standard Do With Pretium?
    Oct. 15, 2014 SSRI 1 Comment

    Summary

    • Silver Standard continues to own nearly 17-18 million shares of Pretium.
    • Pretium's share price decline has resulted in many millions of dollars of paper losses for Silver Standard.
    • At what price is Silver Standard willing to sell these shares?
  • Do Silver Shorts Know There Is A Physical Supply Deficit?
    Oct. 13, 2014 SLV 12 Comments

    Summary

    • Silver had a physical supply deficit of 103 million ounces last year.
    • Physical supply deficits in silver cannot persist in the long term.
    • Silver is an investment that will require patience.
  • Thompson Creek Metals Could Be A Multi-Bagger Or Worth Zero In 3 Years
    Oct. 11, 2014 TC 24 Comments

    Summary

    • Thompson Creek has returned to profitability.
    • The company carries a high amount of debt which is due in 2017-2019.
    • The debt will most likely need to be refinanced.
  • Crude Oil Seasonality From October To December
    Oct. 10, 2014 USO 3 Comments

    Summary

    • Crude oil usually does poorly during the shoulder season.
    • Mid-term elections in the U.S. could also be keeping oil prices down.
    • November to December is historically a positive period for oil.
  • Record Shorting In Silver
    Oct. 6, 2014 SLV 22 Comments

    Summary

    • Large speculators held a record number of short contracts on COMEX silver.
    • Short interest in certain silver stocks are still low compared to last year's December bottom.
    • Gold could drag down silver even more if gold cannot hold its support zone.
    • Historically, October is usually a poor month for silver.