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  • Silver's Bear Market Could Continue For 2-3 More Years Due To Increasing Mine Supply
    Wed, Dec. 10 AG, FNLPF, FSM 19 Comments

    Summary

    • Mine supply of silver is expected to increase for two or three more years.
    • First Majestic, Fortuna, and Fresnillo are examples of miners that will be increasing production.
    • More supply when the silver price is already depressed could mean even lower silver prices.
  • Penn West Is Undervalued Compared To Pengrowth, Enerplus And Baytex
    Sun, Dec. 7 PWE 34 Comments

    Summary

    • New investors are paying only $2.30 for each boe in proven & probable reserves.
    • PWE has a significantly lower price/book ratio than Enerplus and Baytex.
    • PWE is investing to grow production to 140,000 boe per day by the end of the decade.
  • Tahoe Resources: One Of The Few Mining Stocks I Would Invest In
    Wed, Dec. 3 TAHO Comment!

    Summary

    • Tahoe's Escobal mine has a long mine life and very low mining costs.
    • Operating cash flow far exceeds cap-ex spending at Tahoe.
    • Tahoe only has one mine, which makes the stock a little risky.
    • Royalty rates will be increased from 5% to 10%.
  • A Red Friday For Gold Miners Creates A Trading Opportunity
    Sun, Nov. 30 GDX 7 Comments

    Summary

    • OPEC's decision not to lower output triggered a sell-off in gold stocks.
    • The price of oil dropped by 10%.
    • Lower oil prices should benefit gold miners because they rely heavily on large machinery that use diesel fuel.
  • First Majestic Silver: Is There Any Hope For This Beaten Down Miner?
    Wed, Nov. 26 AG 14 Comments

    Summary

    • First Majestic has been underperforming its peers in the silver mining sector.
    • First Majestic's cash level has been dropping.
    • Mining costs have risen from Q1 to Q3, but is expected to decline in Q4 and next year.
  • How Long And How Much Can Silver Rally?
    Sun, Nov. 23 SLV, SIL, SIVR 7 Comments

    Summary

    • Silver made a significant bottom two weeks ago.
    • Silver should be able to rally for at least a few more weeks.
    • Recent rallies in silver have been modest.
  • Xinyuan Real Estate: An Aggressive Growth Strategy Gone Wrong
    Wed, Nov. 12 XIN 10 Comments

    Summary

    • Xinyuan remained profitable despite missing badly on revenues.
    • Sales were very light at several of their residential housing projects.
    • Total debt continued to grow.
    • TPG Capital has done nothing for XIN, and it looks like TPG may want to get out completely.
  • Insiders Are Not Buying These Gold Mining Stocks
    Fri, Nov. 7 GDX 27 Comments

    Summary

    • Insiders have not been buying gold mining stocks.
    • Tax-loss selling season is just around the corner.
    • An interim bottom for GDX might have occurred on Wednesday, but it is probably headed for lower lows in the future.
  • Seabridge Gold: Buying Gold For Only $3 Per Ounce
    Thu, Nov. 6 SA 6 Comments

    Summary

    • Seabridge has massive gold reserves and resources in Canada.
    • The market is valuing those gold reserves and resources at less than $3 per ounce.
    • The ore at KSM is low-grade and the development cap-ex is very high.
  • Silver: The Economic Conditions Are Not Ideal For A Sustained Rally (Part 1)
    Tue, Nov. 4 SLV 5 Comments

    Summary

    • Industrial demand consumed 60% of total silver supply last year.
    • Many important markets in the world are not growing economically, but China and India are still growing rapidly.
    • Fears of an economic slowdown are hurting the silver price.
  • Silver Standard: Q3 Earnings Preview And A Look Beyond
    Tue, Nov. 4 SSRI Comment!

    Summary

    • Silver Standard will report earnings on Wednesday.
    • Revenue will increase significantly due to better than expected gold and silver production.
    • Q3 numbers should be okay, but Q4 is looking like a disaster so far.
    • Marigold should be a cash flow machine.
  • Goldcorp Looks Expensive Compared To Other Gold Stocks
    Mon, Nov. 3 GG 13 Comments

    Summary

    • Goldcorp missed production and earnings estimates in Q3.
    • Goldcorp has over 54 million ounces of gold reserves and over 800 million ounces of silver reserves.
    • The stock appears expensive when compared to other big cap gold stocks based on its gold and silver reserves.
  • A Few Reasons To Be Bullish On Silver
    Tue, Oct. 28 SLV, AGQ, USLV 21 Comments

    Summary

    • Silver usually performs positively during the last two months of the year.
    • The gold-silver ratio is approaching extreme levels on the high side.
    • Hedge funds still hold nearly record short positions on the COMEX.
  • How Will GLD Respond After QE3 Ends?
    Sat, Oct. 25 GLD 33 Comments

    Summary

    • QE3 is expected to end this coming week.
    • GLD went up after QE1 and QE2 ended.
    • The end of QE3 is already priced into the gold price.
  • 3 Reasons Gold Stocks May Not Have Bottomed Yet
    Fri, Oct. 24 GDXJ, GDX 4 Comments

    Summary

    • Gold stocks may not have capitulated yet.
    • More weak companies in the mining industry need to be cleaned out.
    • Gold and silver production is still growing, and has not peaked yet.
  • Exeter Resource: A Takeover Candidate With A More Feasible Mine Plan
    Tue, Oct. 21 XRA 4 Comments

    Summary

    • Rick Rule was negative on XRA last year.
    • Exeter has since revised its mine plan for Caspiche.
    • Exeter has $35 million in cash and no debt.
    • An acquisition of Exeter by Kinross makes sense.
  • Silver Can Trade Below Its All-In Cost Of Production
    Sun, Oct. 19 SLV, SIL, BHP 14 Comments

    Summary

    • Silver is mostly produced as a by-product of copper, lead, zinc, etc.
    • Most of the top silver producers are not primary silver producers.
    • Silver can trade below its all-in cost of production longer than I originally thought.
  • What Should Silver Standard Do With Pretium?
    Wed, Oct. 15 SSRI 1 Comment

    Summary

    • Silver Standard continues to own nearly 17-18 million shares of Pretium.
    • Pretium's share price decline has resulted in many millions of dollars of paper losses for Silver Standard.
    • At what price is Silver Standard willing to sell these shares?
  • Do Silver Shorts Know There Is A Physical Supply Deficit?
    Mon, Oct. 13 SLV 12 Comments

    Summary

    • Silver had a physical supply deficit of 103 million ounces last year.
    • Physical supply deficits in silver cannot persist in the long term.
    • Silver is an investment that will require patience.
  • Thompson Creek Metals Could Be A Multi-Bagger Or Worth Zero In 3 Years
    Sat, Oct. 11 TC 24 Comments

    Summary

    • Thompson Creek has returned to profitability.
    • The company carries a high amount of debt which is due in 2017-2019.
    • The debt will most likely need to be refinanced.
  • Crude Oil Seasonality From October To December
    Fri, Oct. 10 USO 3 Comments

    Summary

    • Crude oil usually does poorly during the shoulder season.
    • Mid-term elections in the U.S. could also be keeping oil prices down.
    • November to December is historically a positive period for oil.
  • Record Shorting In Silver
    Mon, Oct. 6 SLV 22 Comments

    Summary

    • Large speculators held a record number of short contracts on COMEX silver.
    • Short interest in certain silver stocks are still low compared to last year's December bottom.
    • Gold could drag down silver even more if gold cannot hold its support zone.
    • Historically, October is usually a poor month for silver.
  • Pan American Silver Has The Cash To Survive And Thrive
    Sat, Oct. 4 PAAS 9 Comments

    Summary

    • Pan American's cash position will allow it to survive low silver prices.
    • This cash can be used to buy assets at fire-sale prices.
    • Silver stocks are oversold and due for at least a short-term bounce.
  • Oil Is A Safer Bet Than Gold
    Sat, Oct. 4 GLD, USO, OIL 6 Comments

    Summary

    • The price of oil is supported by OPEC and Russia; the price of gold is not supported by anyone.
    • OPEC oil production will get cut if oil continues to drop.
    • China probably wants the price of gold to fall in the short-term.
  • Gold Can Drop To $1062 If History Repeats Itself
    Mon, Sep. 29 GLD 11 Comments

    Summary

    • Wall Street analysts have predicted a $1050 target for gold in 2014.
    • Gold dropped 44% in the bear market from 1975-1976.
    • A similar drop of 44% would take gold down to near Goldman Sachs' low target.
  • China's Central Bank Is Still Underweight Gold
    Mon, Sep. 22 GLD, IAU, SGOL 9 Comments

    Summary

    • Gold represents the majority of the total reserves for the U.S., Germany, Italy, and France.
    • China's gold reserves are only a small percentage of their total reserves.
    • China would consume 25 years of mining supply if it were to hold at least 65% of their total reserves in gold.
  • First Majestic Silver Is Not A Cheap Stock
    Mon, Sep. 22 AG 8 Comments

    Summary

    • First Majestic continues to grow silver production.
    • The company has no debt.
    • The stock is not cheap because the price/book ratio is too high.
    • The company spends a lot of money on cap-ex.
  • Insiders Are Not Buying SilverCrest Mines
    Mon, Sep. 22 SVLC 5 Comments

    Summary

    • There have been no insider purchases in SVLC in the past year.
    • The Santa Elena expansion is almost finished, which means the mine should start generating free cash flow.
    • The La Joya project is uneconomic at today's silver price.
  • Insiders Are Buying Hecla Mining
    Fri, Sep. 19 HL 12 Comments

    Summary

    • Insiders at Hecla have bought over one million shares in the past year.
    • All of Hecla's operations are in the U.S. and Canada.
    • Cash cost for silver is very low, which leads to significant operational cash flow.
  • Does Sentiment Indicate A Bottom In Silver?
    Tue, Sep. 16 SLV, AGQ, PSLV 2 Comments

    Summary

    • The premium in PSLV should be lower to indicate a bottom in silver.
    • Unlike silver, the silver miners ETF is positive for the year.
    • Sentiment in silver does not seem to be bearish enough to indicate a bottom yet.
  • The Odds Are Stacked Against U.S. Natural Gas ETF Investors
    Mon, Sep. 8 UNG 14 Comments

    Summary

    • UNG has greatly underperformed natural gas futures due to contango.
    • Natural gas appears to be bottoming.
    • UNG is not suitable as a long-term investment.
  • Gold Appears Range-Bound Until Inflation Picks Up
    Mon, Sep. 8 GLD, GTU, PHYS 45 Comments

    Summary

    • The ECB has announced their version of quantitative easing.
    • Inflation data in the U.S. and Europe is low.
    • It could take a long time before gold is able to break out of its trading range to the upside.