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  • Is Barrick Gold A Candidate For Bankruptcy?
    Mon, Mar. 16 ABX 22 Comments

    Summary

    • Barrick's debt-equity is worse than Allied Nevada's.
    • Barrick's book value has been cut in half in the past two years.
    • Most of its debt is not due until several years later.
    • Barrick plans to reduce debt by $3 billion this year.
  • Will The Weakness In Silver Continue?
    Tue, Mar. 3 SLV, GLD 12 Comments

    Summary

    • The net short position for commercial traders at the COMEX is still too high.
    • Commodities are still in a downtrend.
    • The Gold:Silver ratio is still in an uptrend.
    • Silver usually falls during March and April.
  • Pan American Silver: The Damage From A Historically Bad Quarter
    Tue, Feb. 24 PAAS 5 Comments

    Summary

    • PAAS lost a record amount of money in 2014 Q4.
    • This was due to an asset write-down of nearly $500 million.
    • Despite a deterioration in the balance sheet, PAAS is still in a strong financial position.
    • The stock is nearing a potential triple-bottom around $9.
  • Dalradian Resources: Another Gold Stock Picked By Expert Louis James
    Mon, Feb. 23 DRLDF 1 Comment

    Summary

    • Gold resources at Curraghinalt have an average grade around 10 g/t.
    • The company has no debt and almost no liabilities on the balance sheet.
    • Production likely won't begin until the end of the decade.
  • Gold Demand Fell In 2014
    Wed, Feb. 18 GLD, IAU, SGOL 8 Comments

    Summary

    • Gold demand in jewelry and technology fell in 2014.
    • Investment demand for gold rose slightly last year.
    • Net central bank buying of gold increased significantly last year.
  • Continental Gold Could Be A Long-Term Winner For The Patient Investor
    Thu, Feb. 12 CGOOF 3 Comments

    Summary

    • Continental hopes to begin gold production at Buriticá in 2017.
    • The company needs to raise over $390 million to develop Buriticá.
    • There are three catalysts for the stock later this year.
  • Rubicon Minerals: A Gold Stock Picked By Expert Louis James
    Wed, Feb. 11 RBY 10 Comments

    Summary

    • Rubicon has a high-grade gold deposit that is 13x richer than the average gold deposit.
    • Production will begin in the middle of the year.
    • The development has already been fully-funded.
  • Gold And Silver Headwinds: Lower Mining Costs
    Wed, Feb. 4 GLD, SLV 7 Comments

    Summary

    • Mining costs are generally trending lower.
    • In the short-term, lower mining costs can be viewed as a catalyst for lower gold/silver prices.
    • In the long-term, lower investments in exploration and development are a catalyst for higher gold/silver prices.
  • Earnings Preview For Silver Standard, Hecla, Pan American Silver, And Coeur Mining
    Mon, Feb. 2 CDE, HL, PAAS 2 Comments

    Summary

    • Primary silver miners will be reporting earnings in mid- to late February.
    • I expect Hecla, Pan American, and Coeur to meet or come close to revenue estimates.
    • Revenue estimates for Silver Standard are too low.
  • First Majestic Silver Should Beat Revenue Expectations
    Thu, Jan. 29 AG 2 Comments

    Summary

    • I estimate that Q4 revenues should be higher than what the analysts expect.
    • EPS in Q4 is a lot more difficult to estimate.
    • Operating costs in 2015 will be a lot lower than in 2014.
    • The 200 dma is a good target to take some profits.
  • Xinyuan Real Estate: Board Resignations And A 2015 Outlook
    Fri, Jan. 23 XIN 14 Comments

    Summary

    • Two board members resigned at the end of 2014.
    • Former CFO, Tom Gurnee, has returned to the company to be the Chairman of the Audit Committee.
    • The property market in mainland China is not expected to make a strong recovery in 2015.
    • The stock trades at roughly one-fifth of its tangible book value.
  • Silver Standard: The Downside Of Record Production
    Tue, Jan. 20 SSRI 5 Comments

    Summary

    • Silver Standard achieved record annual silver production in 2014.
    • The company also achieved record quarterly gold production in Q4 2014.
    • Increasing production when gold and silver prices are low can be viewed negatively.
    • The stock still has room to run higher on a technical basis.
  • Heavy Insider Selling At Fortuna Silver Mines
    Mon, Jan. 12 FSM 1 Comment

    Summary

    • Insiders sold nearly 1.3 million shares in the past six months.
    • FSM has a high price/book ratio relative to other silver miners.
    • Investors are paying more than $10 per silver ounce in reserves & resources.
  • Silver Miners Insider Activity Report: Who's Buying? Who's Selling?
    Fri, Jan. 9 AG, CDE, EXK Comment!

    Summary

    • 4 silver producers had net insider purchases in the past six months.
    • 2 had no insider purchases or sales.
    • 5 had net insider sales.
  • Pan American Silver: Founder Ross Beaty Buys 500k Shares, But Mining Costs Are Too High
    Tue, Jan. 6 PAAS 3 Comments

    Summary

    • The founder and current Chairman bought 500k shares in late December.
    • Only a couple other insiders have bought in the past six months.
    • All-in sustaining and cash costs have not improved in the past year.
  • The Outlook For Palladium In 2015
    Mon, Jan. 5 SPPP, PALL Comment!

    Summary

    • Palladium supply will increase in 2015.
    • Auto sales in 2015 should set another record high.
    • Purchases by ETFs should decrease this year.
  • Contango Is Working Against U.S. Oil ETF Investors
    Mon, Jan. 5 USO 7 Comments

    Summary

    • WTI crude oil is in a state of contango, which will cost USO shareholders roughly 17 cents per share this month.
    • The net long position for speculators is still too high.
    • A V-shaped recovery in oil is unlikely.
  • Silver Standard Is Undervalued Compared To Hecla And Pan American
    Thu, Jan. 1 SSRI 4 Comments

    Summary

    • Investors are paying only 24 cents for each silver equivalent ounce in reserves & resources.
    • Hecla and Pan American investors are paying more than one dollar.
    • SSRI has a lower price/book ratio than Hecla and Pan American.
    • SSRI's operational cash flow in Q4 should be negative.
  • The Outlook For Silver In 2015
    Dec. 31, 2014 SLV, AGQ, USLV 18 Comments

    Summary

    • Analysts expect demand for silver to increase in 2015.
    • Some believe mine supply will increase, while some believe it will decrease.
    • The price indicators for silver are mostly in a neutral position.
  • $50 Oil Won't Be A Problem For Atlas Resource Partners
    Dec. 23, 2014 ARP 17 Comments

    Summary

    • ARP cut its expected cash distribution for 2015 from $2.40 to $2.36 per share.
    • The majority of ARP's production is natural gas.
    • Almost 70% of 2015 oil production has been hedged at much higher prices.
  • Silver's Bear Market Could Continue For 2-3 More Years Due To Increasing Mine Supply
    Dec. 10, 2014 AG, FNLPF, FSM 19 Comments

    Summary

    • Mine supply of silver is expected to increase for two or three more years.
    • First Majestic, Fortuna, and Fresnillo are examples of miners that will be increasing production.
    • More supply when the silver price is already depressed could mean even lower silver prices.
  • Penn West Is Undervalued Compared To Pengrowth, Enerplus And Baytex
    Dec. 7, 2014 PWE 34 Comments

    Summary

    • New investors are paying only $2.30 for each boe in proven & probable reserves.
    • PWE has a significantly lower price/book ratio than Enerplus and Baytex.
    • PWE is investing to grow production to 140,000 boe per day by the end of the decade.
  • Tahoe Resources: One Of The Few Mining Stocks I Would Invest In
    Dec. 3, 2014 TAHO Comment!

    Summary

    • Tahoe's Escobal mine has a long mine life and very low mining costs.
    • Operating cash flow far exceeds cap-ex spending at Tahoe.
    • Tahoe only has one mine, which makes the stock a little risky.
    • Royalty rates will be increased from 5% to 10%.
  • A Red Friday For Gold Miners Creates A Trading Opportunity
    Nov. 30, 2014 GDX 7 Comments

    Summary

    • OPEC's decision not to lower output triggered a sell-off in gold stocks.
    • The price of oil dropped by 10%.
    • Lower oil prices should benefit gold miners because they rely heavily on large machinery that use diesel fuel.
  • First Majestic Silver: Is There Any Hope For This Beaten Down Miner?
    Nov. 26, 2014 AG 14 Comments

    Summary

    • First Majestic has been underperforming its peers in the silver mining sector.
    • First Majestic's cash level has been dropping.
    • Mining costs have risen from Q1 to Q3, but is expected to decline in Q4 and next year.
  • How Long And How Much Can Silver Rally?
    Nov. 23, 2014 SLV, SIL, SIVR 7 Comments

    Summary

    • Silver made a significant bottom two weeks ago.
    • Silver should be able to rally for at least a few more weeks.
    • Recent rallies in silver have been modest.
  • Xinyuan Real Estate: An Aggressive Growth Strategy Gone Wrong
    Nov. 12, 2014 XIN 10 Comments

    Summary

    • Xinyuan remained profitable despite missing badly on revenues.
    • Sales were very light at several of their residential housing projects.
    • Total debt continued to grow.
    • TPG Capital has done nothing for XIN, and it looks like TPG may want to get out completely.
  • Insiders Are Not Buying These Gold Mining Stocks
    Nov. 7, 2014 GDX 30 Comments

    Summary

    • Insiders have not been buying gold mining stocks.
    • Tax-loss selling season is just around the corner.
    • An interim bottom for GDX might have occurred on Wednesday, but it is probably headed for lower lows in the future.
  • Seabridge Gold: Buying Gold For Only $3 Per Ounce
    Nov. 6, 2014 SA 6 Comments

    Summary

    • Seabridge has massive gold reserves and resources in Canada.
    • The market is valuing those gold reserves and resources at less than $3 per ounce.
    • The ore at KSM is low-grade and the development cap-ex is very high.
  • Silver: The Economic Conditions Are Not Ideal For A Sustained Rally (Part 1)
    Nov. 4, 2014 SLV 5 Comments

    Summary

    • Industrial demand consumed 60% of total silver supply last year.
    • Many important markets in the world are not growing economically, but China and India are still growing rapidly.
    • Fears of an economic slowdown are hurting the silver price.
  • Silver Standard: Q3 Earnings Preview And A Look Beyond
    Nov. 4, 2014 SSRI Comment!

    Summary

    • Silver Standard will report earnings on Wednesday.
    • Revenue will increase significantly due to better than expected gold and silver production.
    • Q3 numbers should be okay, but Q4 is looking like a disaster so far.
    • Marigold should be a cash flow machine.
  • Goldcorp Looks Expensive Compared To Other Gold Stocks
    Nov. 3, 2014 GG 13 Comments

    Summary

    • Goldcorp missed production and earnings estimates in Q3.
    • Goldcorp has over 54 million ounces of gold reserves and over 800 million ounces of silver reserves.
    • The stock appears expensive when compared to other big cap gold stocks based on its gold and silver reserves.