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  • Silver Can Trade Below Its All-In Cost Of Production
    Sun, Oct. 19 SLV, SIL, BHP 11 Comments

    Summary

    • Silver is mostly produced as a by-product of copper, lead, zinc, etc.
    • Most of the top silver producers are not primary silver producers.
    • Silver can trade below its all-in cost of production longer than I originally thought.
  • What Should Silver Standard Do With Pretium?
    Wed, Oct. 15 SSRI 1 Comment

    Summary

    • Silver Standard continues to own nearly 17-18 million shares of Pretium.
    • Pretium's share price decline has resulted in many millions of dollars of paper losses for Silver Standard.
    • At what price is Silver Standard willing to sell these shares?
  • Do Silver Shorts Know There Is A Physical Supply Deficit?
    Mon, Oct. 13 SLV 12 Comments

    Summary

    • Silver had a physical supply deficit of 103 million ounces last year.
    • Physical supply deficits in silver cannot persist in the long term.
    • Silver is an investment that will require patience.
  • Thompson Creek Metals Could Be A Multi-Bagger Or Worth Zero In 3 Years
    Sat, Oct. 11 TC 24 Comments

    Summary

    • Thompson Creek has returned to profitability.
    • The company carries a high amount of debt which is due in 2017-2019.
    • The debt will most likely need to be refinanced.
  • Crude Oil Seasonality From October To December
    Fri, Oct. 10 USO 3 Comments

    Summary

    • Crude oil usually does poorly during the shoulder season.
    • Mid-term elections in the U.S. could also be keeping oil prices down.
    • November to December is historically a positive period for oil.
  • Record Shorting In Silver
    Mon, Oct. 6 SLV 22 Comments

    Summary

    • Large speculators held a record number of short contracts on COMEX silver.
    • Short interest in certain silver stocks are still low compared to last year's December bottom.
    • Gold could drag down silver even more if gold cannot hold its support zone.
    • Historically, October is usually a poor month for silver.
  • Pan American Silver Has The Cash To Survive And Thrive
    Sat, Oct. 4 PAAS 7 Comments

    Summary

    • Pan American's cash position will allow it to survive low silver prices.
    • This cash can be used to buy assets at fire-sale prices.
    • Silver stocks are oversold and due for at least a short-term bounce.
  • Oil Is A Safer Bet Than Gold
    Sat, Oct. 4 GLD, USO, OIL 6 Comments

    Summary

    • The price of oil is supported by OPEC and Russia; the price of gold is not supported by anyone.
    • OPEC oil production will get cut if oil continues to drop.
    • China probably wants the price of gold to fall in the short-term.
  • Gold Can Drop To $1062 If History Repeats Itself
    Mon, Sep. 29 GLD 11 Comments

    Summary

    • Wall Street analysts have predicted a $1050 target for gold in 2014.
    • Gold dropped 44% in the bear market from 1975-1976.
    • A similar drop of 44% would take gold down to near Goldman Sachs' low target.
  • China's Central Bank Is Still Underweight Gold
    Mon, Sep. 22 GLD, IAU, SGOL 9 Comments

    Summary

    • Gold represents the majority of the total reserves for the U.S., Germany, Italy, and France.
    • China's gold reserves are only a small percentage of their total reserves.
    • China would consume 25 years of mining supply if it were to hold at least 65% of their total reserves in gold.
  • First Majestic Silver Is Not A Cheap Stock
    Mon, Sep. 22 AG 5 Comments

    Summary

    • First Majestic continues to grow silver production.
    • The company has no debt.
    • The stock is not cheap because the price/book ratio is too high.
    • The company spends a lot of money on cap-ex.
  • Insiders Are Not Buying SilverCrest Mines
    Mon, Sep. 22 SVLC 4 Comments

    Summary

    • There have been no insider purchases in SVLC in the past year.
    • The Santa Elena expansion is almost finished, which means the mine should start generating free cash flow.
    • The La Joya project is uneconomic at today's silver price.
  • Insiders Are Buying Hecla Mining
    Fri, Sep. 19 HL 11 Comments

    Summary

    • Insiders at Hecla have bought over one million shares in the past year.
    • All of Hecla's operations are in the U.S. and Canada.
    • Cash cost for silver is very low, which leads to significant operational cash flow.
  • Does Sentiment Indicate A Bottom In Silver?
    Tue, Sep. 16 SLV, AGQ, PSLV 2 Comments

    Summary

    • The premium in PSLV should be lower to indicate a bottom in silver.
    • Unlike silver, the silver miners ETF is positive for the year.
    • Sentiment in silver does not seem to be bearish enough to indicate a bottom yet.
  • The Odds Are Stacked Against U.S. Natural Gas ETF Investors
    Mon, Sep. 8 UNG 13 Comments

    Summary

    • UNG has greatly underperformed natural gas futures due to contango.
    • Natural gas appears to be bottoming.
    • UNG is not suitable as a long-term investment.
  • Gold Appears Range-Bound Until Inflation Picks Up
    Mon, Sep. 8 GLD, GTU, PHYS 42 Comments

    Summary

    • The ECB has announced their version of quantitative easing.
    • Inflation data in the U.S. and Europe is low.
    • It could take a long time before gold is able to break out of its trading range to the upside.
  • Silver Nearing Another Bottom
    Sun, Sep. 7 SLV 13 Comments

    Summary

    • Silver is now negative for the year and probably headed a little lower.
    • Mining companies cannot make money at these low silver prices.
    • Higher prices await long-term silver investors.
  • U.S. Oil Fund Benefiting From Backwardation
    Tue, Aug. 26 USO 3 Comments

    Summary

    • WTI crude oil has been in backwardation for more than a year.
    • U.S. domestic oil production is expected to grow this year and next.
    • USO can be held as long as the backwardation persists.
  • Xinyuan Real Estate: Brooklyn Is Hot, China Is Not
    Sat, Aug. 23 XIN 10 Comments

    Summary

    • Inventory is building due to weak sales.
    • Prices for residential units in China will need to be lowered.
    • Housing prices in Williamsburg, Brooklyn, are still rising.
  • Hydrogen-Fueled Vehicles To Increase Platinum Demand
    Mon, Aug. 11 PPLT 5 Comments

    Summary

    • Hydrogen fuel cell vehicles produce no toxic emissions.
    • Hydrogen vehicles are starting to be made available to consumers.
    • A hydrogen vehicle uses more platinum than a gasoline or diesel vehicle.
  • Silver: The Rallies Are Getting Smaller And Smaller
    Tue, Aug. 5 SLV, SIVR 8 Comments

    Summary

    • There is still some negative psychology in the precious metals market.
    • Fundamentals for silver don't seem to matter, at least in the short-term.
    • The hedge funds are still overbought according to the COT report.
    • August is usually a good month for silver.
  • Uranium Is Cheap But Uranium Participation Corp. Is Not
    Mon, Aug. 4 URPTF 4 Comments

    Summary

    • The price of uranium is too low to be sustainable for uranium miners.
    • Mines are being taken off-line and expansion plans are being delayed.
    • Uranium Participation Corp is an expensive stock that sells at over 20% above net asset value.
  • Xinyuan: A Cheap Housing Stock
    Wed, Jul. 23 XIN 51 Comments

    Summary

    • China's real estate market has not gone bust yet.
    • Several new projects began pre-sales during Q2.
    • XIN is a dirt cheap stock with a P/E of 3.
  • Silver Appears To Be Topping
    Sun, Jun. 29 SLV, AGQ, USLV 27 Comments

    Summary

    • CPI inflation is at its highest rate since 2012.
    • Much of the record short position in COMEX silver has already been covered.
    • July is historically a positive month for silver.
  • June Is Historically The Worst Month Of The Year For Silver
    Mon, Jun. 2 SLV 8 Comments

    Summary

    • Silver has dropped in 14 of the last 20 years in June.
    • Silver experienced record demand in 2013.
    • Silver cannot drop to zero, but the miners could.
  • The Cheapest Way To Buy Gold And Silver
    Thu, May. 15 CEF, GTU, SVRZF 2 Comments

    Summary

    • CEF and GTU are still priced at a discount to net asset value.
    • Sentiment towards precious metals needs to improve before they can trade at a premium.
    • These funds provide tax advantages.
  • The Investment Case Appears To Be Broken For Silver Standard
    Mon, May. 12 SSRI 5 Comments

    Summary

    • The Pitarrilla project has been indefinitely suspended.
    • The company's cash hoard has mostly been spent.
    • The Marigold gold mine will not be very profitable at today's gold price.
  • Can Silver Drop To Single Digits?
    Wed, May. 7 DBS, PSLV, SIVR 41 Comments

    Summary

    • Silver is now flat for the year.
    • Silver is on a 4-year losing streak in the month of May.
    • A long-term investor must have the conviction to hold.
  • Silver: Triple Bottom Or Lower Lows?
    Thu, Apr. 10 SLV, AGQ, SIVR 10 Comments

    Summary

    • Silver has given up almost all of its gains this year.
    • Mining supply continues to increase.
    • Silver is lower than its production cost.
  • 70% Chance Silver Will Decline During March-April
    Wed, Feb. 26 SLV 81 Comments
  • Silver Must Go Higher In The Long Term
    Wed, Feb. 12 SLV, AGQ, CEF 11 Comments
  • Xinyuan Real Estate: 5 Things You Should Know Before You Buy
    Wed, Feb. 5 XIN 44 Comments