Prudent Finances

Gold & precious metals, commodities, deep value
Prudent Finances
Gold & precious metals, commodities, deep value
Contributor since: 2013
If you scan the Q&A part of the conference call transcript you can find some more names of analysts who cover this stock.
C, GS, and MS trade at even greater discounts to tangible book value. Perhaps the market is discounting the scenario of a European bank like DB going bust.
Up 4.5% is the average day after earnings price movement since the beginning of 2013. That includes 12 earnings releases (9 higher, 3 lower). The numbers from 2010-2012 are not as pretty.
Every time I see Harry Dent make a price prediction about anything (stocks, oil, gold, etc), he always says that it will bounce higher or continue higher first before dropping to his low target. That way no matter what happens, he can claim that he was right about something.
BarnaFin, did you buy these shares on December 14th? That's the only day you could've bought shares in the low $16s and have monthly options that have already expired.
BAC is trading at a 10% discount to tangible book value.
USB is trading at 2.2x tangible book value.
So the author is recommending to buy the significantly more expensive one?
PVF, your statement that the financials stink is not correct. I hope you are not looking at GAAP net income. That number will usually be negative for MLPs no matter what the prices of oil and gas are. Distributable cash flow for the year should easily exceed $100 million and the market cap is only $220 million as I write this.
Q1 $33.8 M
Q2 $29.2 M
Q3 $27.4 M
Q4 pending
PVF, the hedges in this article are not overstated. They were taken directly from the company's presentation. And it is highly unlikely that company mgmt is overstating. It sounds like you are accusing either MEMP or certain SA contributors of providing fraudulent information. The company's production is well protected by hedges for the next 4 years. That's a fact! Just look at their hedging updates. They are not lying to you. But this company is smothered with debt and will eventually have to announce a distribution cut.
During the October 2008 bottom for gold, the HUI gold miners index and spot gold prices bottomed only a few days apart.
The dividend cut was announced nearly 3 months ago. The dip this week under $5 for MEMP is due to the collapse of natural gas prices to ~$2.
Historically, gold goes up when the Fed raises rates.
Where can we find the current S&P oscillator data? Something called a McClellan oscillator comes up when I did a google search. Is that similar to the S&P oscillator?
The title of this article is misleading because the book value that the author refers to includes over $75 billion in goodwill and intangible assets. Those are worthless.
George, it's October according to Forbes:
"October is the time these banks redetermine RBL (Reserve Based Lending) borrowing bases, which establish available debt."
I can't say specifically what will happen to each company, but the Haynes and Boone law firm said that about 80% of producers will see their credit lines cut by an average of 39%.
Do you they have any currency hedges in place to neutralize the movements of the USD/CAD rate for their US denominated debt?
Sorry for the late reply. I have some catch up work to do on this stock.
Looks like it's an issue with the environmental permit application. According to the CEO, the company "missed completion guidance for the EIA permitting".
You can also contact the CEO and CFO directly if you have some questions. Most executives at small companies are accessible and willing to communicate with shareholders.
Regarding #1, there have been dozens of Chinese companies listed on U.S. exchanges that have falsified financial information: Sino-Forest, Longtop Financial, Rino International, China-Biotics, Puda Coal, China MediaExpress, Sino Clean Energy ... Barron's even implied that Alibaba was cooking the books.
Dozens more have gone "dark" (meaning they no longer report financials and no longer communicate with shareholders): Shengkai Innovations, Weikang Bio-Tech, ...
Investors should celebrate if the shares are diluted by the convertible because that means that the stock price is at least $10.
The safest way is Uranium Participation (URPTF) which is trading at a double-digit discount to net asset value.
What about the debt? Is it denominated in rubles or dollars? That seems like an important piece of info that is missing.
The hedges are the best in the industry. Are you referring to counter-party risks?
Yes, you can. I did it with PWE and CEF last year.
And their oil production this year is 100% hedged so the price doesn't matter at all.
Yes, they were. From 2008-2014, Oct and Nov were the 2 worst months for WTI crude oil. Not every year, but on average.
I'd rather own ARP instead of ATLS. Get the dividends every month with ARP instead of waiting for ATLS to distribute it whenever they feel like it.
ARP is also simpler. ATLS comes with Lightfoot Capital and Arc Logistics, which I'm not familiar with. I just mentioned ATLS in the article as an alternative.
This is a great article. Unfortunately, due to the shoulder season, October and November are the two worst months for oil historically. Many refineries go offline during this time which reduces oil demand.
How many lbs of uranium does each nuclear reactor consume per year?
ATLS still receives the distribution payment from ARP every month, but ATLS won't be paying ATLS shareholders until next year. ATLS will keep the cash until they are ready to distribute it. Sounds like a bad deal for ATLS shareholders.
The grand majority of gold stocks are trading below book value. Some like IAG and AUY are almost one-quarter of book value.
I don't see how this move justifies a 6% after-market increase in the stock. Maybe if they were spinning-off YouTube.
Is most of the debt denominated in USD or BRL?
Just need to be careful where you buy it. Bullion Direct filed for bankruptcy two weeks ago and Tulving went belly up last year. Both were due to fraud.