PSalerno

Long/short equity, contrarian, special situations, value
PSalerno
Long/short equity, contrarian, special situations, value
Contributor since: 2012
Assume that the employee get paid with shares but the next day when he try to sell he cannot sell because the trading is suspended or the company declare bankruptcy, in that case he will understand the difference between cash and stock.
Zipper - You are totally wrong. If the stock value is 200 and the employee must have 10,000, he will receive not 1000 shares but 50. In fact 50x200=10,000.
I have to reiterate to the infinite that stock compensation is a dilution, dilution is a cost an expense but not cash. I always look at share count and when share count rises too much without motivation I sell or short the stock, so I am fully aware of the issue.
No, the discussion was about the operation cost in this environment of low price. Asset value changes with the price, and the oil price is linked to operation creating oversupply.
That's right, it is an expense stealing value from existing shareholders, but not cash. Like when someone recycles a received gift can transfer the gift (and value) without paying cash.
You can say what you want, but a stock is not cash, and when the worker eventually sell the stock there is no effect on cash flow, it is just an expense paid with stock dilution like when a company use stock to buy another company without using cash.
Everything can have a cash value but it is not cash. Sorry but I disagree.
It is trading at more than 1 time sales. 2 times trailing sales and 1.7 forecast sales. Quite cheap anyway, but RAX is trading at 1.2 sales and it is more profitable. There is some worry about the expenses.
I am trading EMR, as it showed good support in 43 area when the last bearish article was published. so I bought around 43 and sold around 46-47. There are headwinds but are reflected in the valuation.
It is a great company, but not really undervalued for me. I took some profit because there is no revenue growth. It is fairly valued compared to UTX too.
Growth is slowing and after stock based compensation there is a loss. Anyway YELP is cheap compared to other internet related stocks trading at 1.8 x future sales. Many companies with no profit are trading at 4-8 times sales with growth in the range of 20% to 50%. Difficult to say if this discount is justified by a persistent lack of profitability. I tam in doubt, but think there are better and safer longs and better and safer shorts here.
If the operating cost is 15.2/boe, they can make an operating profit selling at 30 and pay debt. So they can use this cash flow to stay alive.
Your technical analysis did not work. YELP today hit 15.7, then 18.84, then again 15.5, moving beyond your targets many times. The market volatility and the earning release were responsible for these wide range of stock price..
Stock based compensation is an expense, but has no effect on cash flow. It is a stock dilution.
A lot ? Shorting MCD you are missing other wonderfull short opportunities, like AMZN, LNKD, DATA, WDAY, they are down 30-55% !
Titan - I do not pay attention to people making comments just on one stock like you.
A company and its stock are not the same thing. AMZN is a good company but a bad stock to own in 2016 and it is going to be even worse than I thought because the market is repricing all these high growth, expensive stocks with little profit. The bear market is extending from energy and mining stocks to banks which are suffering bad loans related to the commodity distressed sector. They are selling asset and these high priced stocks are hit. Industrial sector is also starting to suffer. The staple sector is not hit for now, but if the sell off continue it can suffer too.
As for AWS we know the revenue and the operating profit as the management disclosed it separately making easier to value the company for bulls and bears.
YELP became even cheaper at 18 after it was considered cheap at 24 in this article, another 30% loss. Revenue is still growing, but I do not like the management. Too much stock compensation, too much stock dilution and little profit.
It is not clear which scenario is developing. The growth is still around 38-40%, and FB eventual competition is just starting. Many stocks in the sector had a multiple compression, and YELP is trading at just 3 times trailing sales, 1.8 times 2016 forecasted sales.
Excessive stock compensation is a problem for many stocks, but the article is quite good.
I agree with the article, but why did you close the short time ago ?
A takeover was my prediction in 2012 or 2013, but Opentable was bought instead. FB is becoming a competitor, and even if the stock is quite cheap now, nothing is happening.
A short opportunity missed. The market is repricing these high growth tech stocks. 3x sales is not expensive, but the problem is if this growth will continue as we are talking about a forecast of future sales.
Yes, even if stocks tend to overshoot to the uspide on to the downside it is prudent to use these extreme as hedge not to invest in them. All people tend to talk about the past, and how AMZN went from 5 to 700, but nobody is suggesting to buy a stock at 5.
Yes, I know how to read a 10K and the relation between asset and liabilities is very good. Even if they shifted some cost from AWS to the rest of the business it is still a cost inside the company, so it is not important. There is synergy between AWS and the rest of the company, so it is not important, just an indication. I said that 2016 will be a bad year for AMZN, but the business is good. Not all companies are the same, even those of the 2000 bubble, there are specific situations.
You have a good point. Dividend cut was not factored in the stock price for COP, but now is. But the problem for investors is what to do now.
In case of bankruptcy any asset will be used to pay the bondholders first and then the shareholders. Generally shareholders get nothing, bondholders can get something, but it depends on the asset available.
His mistake was to consider the earning for monthly active users. What is important is the revenue growth and TWTR along with FB are growing faster, this is why FB has a bigger multiple. I was long LNKD but sold at 200.
In the SEC filings. The cash cannot be falsified, they can make some trick on earnings, capex, stock compensation, but the cash must be real. Anyway here the author suggested to buy AMZN at 680, and that was clearly wrong.
Energy and mining stocks look a safe heaven now compared to tech... DATA-50% in one day, LNKD -45%, SPLK -20%
I think so, it is a problem to buy debt at very low level, anyway it is the way to go.
Yes, there is a growing net profit, a growing cash flow. after all the expenses.
I sold CRM at 75, but did not short. I short using options and my positions are quite dynamic, barring some short calls running OTM. Today covered my long puts on TSLA