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PSalerno

 
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  • Exact Sciences' Potential Competitor [View article]
    It is a good caveat to keep in mind as there are several blood tests around the world making progress.
    Oct 22 12:47 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Exact Sciences: Revisiting Cologuard's Value [View article]
    I did not say it was a cancer vaccine against cervical cancer. It is a vaccine against HPV. My point is that it was not the Papa test alone to reduce the mortality for CC, but the vaccination. For CRC it is not a vaccine, there is a study in progress in USA about Guaniline (in addition to other blood screening tests around the world).
    Oct 21 01:50 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Exact Sciences: Revisiting Cologuard's Value [View article]
    The progress is not just in screening, but could be also in prevention drugs. You often quote the cervical cancer, but the reduction in that cancer is not just a reduction because of the screening (pap test) but also because of vaccination. There is a promising drug that is under study and could be effective in CRC prevention. There are many possibilities you are overlooking.
    Oct 21 11:12 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Exact Sciences: Revisiting Cologuard's Value [View article]
    Science and Biotechnology are moving fast....
    Oct 20 09:28 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • EOG Resources: A Best-Of-Breed Selling Below Fair Value [View article]
    After 1 year I rebuild again a small long position, but I am worry about oil price becaus cash flow is going to shrink if oil price will be low for a long time.
    Oct 20 09:27 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Exact Sciences: Revisiting Cologuard's Value [View article]
    In 5 years timeframe Cologuard will be obsolete.
    Oct 19 01:18 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Exact Sciences: Revisiting Cologuard's Value [View article]
    Obviously you disagree as you are above consensus.
    I tried to explain why you and Energy trader are wrong about the saving, where are your miscalculation.
    The problems are 3:
    1 - New discoveries not just in the screening but even in the prevention of CRC using drugs.
    2- The saving will prove to be delusional
    3- Lower than expected compliance, especially for low risk people.
    In sum I am simply forecasting future problems, but for the next 1-2 years I agree with the street consensus of 1-2 Billion maximum revenue, (not 3).
    Oct 17 10:06 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Fundamentals Of Pioneer, The Permian Basin And Oil Prices [View article]
    Carbo ceramics should be one of the hardest hit IMO as they sell sand (ceramics) for fracking.
    Problem is what to short now ? CVE, CRL, KOG, TPLM, OAS, WLL ??
    Oct 17 07:43 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Fundamentals Of Pioneer, The Permian Basin And Oil Prices [View article]
    This correction may be an opportunity to build new position for those like me who sold in advance some energy stocks. Stocks like COP, BP , XOM and drillers like DO or ESV. In the shale sector I like only EOG, along with the author, and started some position again at lower levels, but would be right to balance this long position shorting some weaker peers as Akram pointed out.
    Oct 17 06:55 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Exact Sciences: Revisiting Cologuard's Value [View article]
    Yes, I did not include the cost of successful treatments, but they will not be 100,000 because the mortality rate for Colon cancer is about 50%, so the real number is half of what you say, but I did not include also the failed screening, as I assumed ALL the 50,000 deaths will be avoided. I think the your number of 10,000 deaths is understated, as I know this pathology very well and probably the mortality will be reduced to 20,000 from 50,000, which is a GREAT SUCCESS, but not for the savings. A perfect math is impossible, but I tried to make it simpler to show the point. The high reimbursement is good, but it is also a burden for non insured or not fully insured patients and for insurers, and this burden can lessen the compliance with the test, when you have just 1 :2000 or so probablity to get the CRC. There are a lot of low risk people that can be individuated by several standards and over 75 Y old people where the screening makes little sense.
    Oct 16 02:12 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Exact Sciences: Revisiting Cologuard's Value [View article]
    Harvey - I strongly disagree and you did not understand that early screening cannot save more than 50 thousands Americans, because there are not more than 50,000 deaths for Colon cancer in US. Plus Cologuard will save just a small fraction of that because some of them are not preventable through screening and because some people cannot pay the test and/or are not insured.
    Finally, to avoid 1 cancer death you have to screen 2000 people.
    As I said the cost to screen 2000 people is about $333,000 every year, roughly in line with the cost of therapy for a Colon cancer. So you are wrong when you talk about a saving, there is NO saving, just an improvement in life expectation. Additionally, people avoiding Colon Cancer will not become immortal, they will get another patology, may be another cancer after few years with additional costs.
    So in the end you will have to spend more, even if after few years.
    Oct 16 01:02 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Exact Sciences: Revisiting Cologuard's Value [View article]
    That means in order to avoid 1 CRC you have to test 2000 patients with $1Million cost ($333,000 every year). So where is the saving ? This is why the insurers will not pay for all americans.
    Oct 16 10:28 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Exact Sciences: Revisiting Cologuard's Value [View article]
    Accordingly with ACS, only 50 thousands americans will die for CRC in 2014, and if the Guanilina prevention is effective, it will reduce the necessity for screening.
    Oct 16 10:22 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • EOG Resources: Resilience In The Face Of Lower Oil Prices [View article]
    I am in again with EOG after this correction and I am encouraged by yesterday's key reversal. It is the best and safer stock in this risky sector.
    Oct 16 07:58 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • How Libya Sunk The Oil Frackers' Stocks, Plus The Conoco Story [View article]
    Thanks Michael, one of your best articles and one of the best in SA about oil.
    Few days ago, until yesterday, given the high volatility, I sold puts on EOG. Even if I was too early to increase my position in energy stocks, (even nat gas stocks and drillers were affected) this entry point is interesting long term. I made some adjustment shifting from some sub-sector to another, but now I am looking to some high yielding stock like COP, BP, XOM.
    Oct 16 07:55 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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