2 BioPharma Catalyst Trades And 1 Strong Acquisition Target Rumored To Be In Play [View article]
Form 13F-HR just came out TODAY on two hedge funds I really respect:
RA Capital Management run by Peter Kolchinsky, PHD in Virology from Harvard ---> Increased ACAD position 6.8% from last quarter. ACAD is now the top holding in his portfolio AND he bought 3 million calls as well:
Baker Brothers Advisors ---> Acadia is the 9th highest holding (percentage-wise) in the portfolio at 2.48%. There are approximately 75 stocks and convertibles in the portfolio. Since last quarter, the Baker Brothers have held their position steady at 15.6 million shares.
2 BioPharma Catalyst Trades And 1 Strong Acquisition Target Rumored To Be In Play [View article]
You forgot to mention the #1 reason why pimavanserin is a big deal. It represents a NEW CLASS of anti-depressants which *do not* affect motor skills. This is a big deal, especially with the elderly. This drug has numerous applications wherever heavy anti-depressants are prescribed which includes PDP, Alzheimer's Psychosis, and Schizophrenia Psychosis. Seroquel is one of the current leading drugs in this market. It is a heavily prescribed high-revenue drug owned by Astra-Zeneca. There are bad side effects that come with seroquel including impaired motor skills. Pimavanserin, over time, should completely replace seroquel. Thus, I feel Astra-Zeneca will be a heavy-breathing suitor. We'll see how this shakes out, but I've been buying all the way up since $8.50.
And one more thing, I've been watching hedge fund accumulation on Acadia, and right now it is leading all biotechs in my spreadsheet as "Most Accumulated". Not surprising given the price action. I get real happy when I see Hedge Funds like the Baker Brothers Advisors gobbling up this stock. :)
This Biopharma Is Ready To Be Shorted [View article]
Not really a ground breaking thought here. In fact, you are just highlighting the optimal method of trading ALL cheap biotechs. They are emotionally driven creatures with EXTREMELY long timelines for products to come to fruition. If you are a biotech investor, I always recommend taking a portion of your profits on huge, emotion-driven price spikes. Yesterday, I sold 2/3 of my position. I will hold 1/3 long term and I had also purchased a small amount in my IRA. Ultimately, I am wondering if Astra-Zeneca buys Acadia out because, right now, AZN owns Seroquel which is prescribed 66% of the time for Parkinson's Psychosis. We will see, but I would not be a buyer at these levels either.
Why Acadia Pharmaceuticals Remains A Strong Buy [View article]
Nice article. I own about a 2/3 portfolio position in Acadia. I am looking for a retreat to the lower 7's or upper 6's to add. I use the Baker Brothers as my "biotech investment filter" and they have recently purchased ACAD. They have a pretty solid track record that you can review by checking out "Baker Brother Advisors LLC" Form 13s.
Right now, this stock trades a LOT like a biotech. It is very emotionally driven with large spikes and then a return to the mean. Right now, there are no earnings... only rampant speculation on Vringo's "story". A biotech can take off under these conditions, but only with the support of an institutional buyer who BELIEVES in the story.
So, that leads me to my main issue. I believed (and to some extent still do) in the Vringo story. However, the stock is telling us, right now at this moment in time, that no other large entity believes in the story enough to BUY. I would like to see evidence of a change in the VERY LONG AND DRAINING pattern of emotional spikes and the inevitable and depressing return to the mean.
Vringo Settlement Talks With Microsoft; Buyout Or License? [View article]
And finally, the patents have not even been *valued* yet until Judge Jackson DOES SOMETHING. I don't see why MSFT will settle until Judge Jackson delivers his final ruling and (hopefully) grants the running royalty. Am I wrong here? The patents don't have much value until this ruling happens.
Vringo Settlement Talks With Microsoft; Buyout Or License? [View article]
Another thing that has altered my belief in this company over the past few months is the following... until Vringo 1) wins a running royalty 2) diversifies running royalties by winning from multiple companies 3) wins a running royalty that will last beyond 3.5 years (when the patents expire), I'm not sure the company is worthy of slapping a multiple on it. I still like the potential, but I need to see more evidence.
Vringo Settlement Talks With Microsoft; Buyout Or License? [View article]
I go with MSFT working out a licensing deal with Vringo. What forward looking company spends millions on a company with patents that will be irrelevant in 3.5 years? I know Vringo has some patents around mobile, but are these worthy of a buyout?
Don't forget, until we get clarification from JJ, the past damages portion of the MSFT lawsuit is for peanuts. Laches will not go away because, contrary to the biased long view, it was a reasonable ruling by JJ. You can't sit on a patent for 10 years and expect to collect MASSIVE damages. Also, MSFT holds approximately 15% of the search market and GOOG, who holds ~66% of the market, paid only $15.9 million in past damages. So, what will MSFT pay for past damages?
Again, my view would definitely change if JJ changed the calculation on Google's past damages, or, hiked the running royalty because he realized VRNG was screwed out of past damages.
SunPower CEO Telegraphs Big Second Half [View article]
Full Disclosure: Due to short-term technicals, I sold out of this investment this morning at just over $12. I plan to re-enter with a half-size position at below $11. Preferably, at the 2/27 low of $10.55. From that point, I will look for strength to help me decide if I should add more.
You list Sunpower's 3 year revenue growth as 16.6%. That is about to be blown out of the water with Warren Buffet's Mid American Energy's buy of Sunpower's Antelope Valley project for $2.5 billion. This will be the largest solar farm to date and will greatly increase Sunpower's revenue and margins going forward.
I am positioning myself to take advantage of, what will be, record 3rd and 4th quarters for Sunpower. http://seekingalpha.co...
SunPower CEO Telegraphs Big Second Half [View article]
Trent, You make a great point. I did accidentally make an apples to oranges comparison. I have worked with the SA editors to remove the GAAP versus Non-GAAP comparison. However, I do feel like there is value in reviewing the Non-GAAP SPWR numbers. To me, its a better indicator of how the business itself is doing. I realize there is a lot of important fees, debts, charge-offs etc stripped out of Non-GAAP numbers.
Anyway, thank you for very much for catching my oversight.
SunPower CEO Telegraphs Big Second Half [View article]
ECD Fan - It looks like you have a long history of supporting FSLR based on your comment stream. My bad... I had a typo in my last comment... I meant to say "China is 80% of the world's manufacturing capacity".
Either way, can I ask you something? Are you long FSLR because you are certainly coming off as defensive. I'm not an FSLR basher and I'm actually thinking of buying shares of that company as well as I feel the entire industry is slowly turning. I also feel, based on the efficiency numbers released by both companies, that Sunpower has the better product.
Also, how can Totals 60-some percent stake in SPWR be bad for the company? In fact, it has been a stabilizing factor during the recent relentlessly bad solar environment. Totals presence has allowed SPWR to win contracts in South Africa, which is a geographic location they never would have been involved in.
In any case, can you please let me know what is your involvement is with FSLR? I am detecting some serious defensiveness.
2 BioPharma Catalyst Trades And 1 Strong Acquisition Target Rumored To Be In Play [View article]
RA Capital Management run by Peter Kolchinsky, PHD in Virology from Harvard ---> Increased ACAD position 6.8% from last quarter. ACAD is now the top holding in his portfolio AND he bought 3 million calls as well:
http://1.usa.gov/1023BeM
Baker Brothers Advisors ---> Acadia is the 9th highest holding (percentage-wise) in the portfolio at 2.48%. There are approximately 75 stocks and convertibles in the portfolio. Since last quarter, the Baker Brothers have held their position steady at 15.6 million shares.
http://1.usa.gov/13xTX7P
Good luck. This one is a winner.
2 BioPharma Catalyst Trades And 1 Strong Acquisition Target Rumored To Be In Play [View article]
And one more thing, I've been watching hedge fund accumulation on Acadia, and right now it is leading all biotechs in my spreadsheet as "Most Accumulated". Not surprising given the price action. I get real happy when I see Hedge Funds like the Baker Brothers Advisors gobbling up this stock. :)
This Biopharma Is Ready To Be Shorted [View article]
Why Acadia Pharmaceuticals Remains A Strong Buy [View article]
Vringo May Be Vetting A Buyer [View article]
So, that leads me to my main issue. I believed (and to some extent still do) in the Vringo story. However, the stock is telling us, right now at this moment in time, that no other large entity believes in the story enough to BUY. I would like to see evidence of a change in the VERY LONG AND DRAINING pattern of emotional spikes and the inevitable and depressing return to the mean.
Vringo Settlement Talks With Microsoft; Buyout Or License? [View article]
Cliff Weinstein was SVP of Insitutional Sales at Maxim. You CANNOT take anything Maxim says seriously. They are completely biased.
http://linkd.in/128nanM
Vringo Settlement Talks With Microsoft; Buyout Or License? [View article]
Vringo Settlement Talks With Microsoft; Buyout Or License? [View article]
Vringo Settlement Talks With Microsoft; Buyout Or License? [View article]
Don't forget, until we get clarification from JJ, the past damages portion of the MSFT lawsuit is for peanuts. Laches will not go away because, contrary to the biased long view, it was a reasonable ruling by JJ. You can't sit on a patent for 10 years and expect to collect MASSIVE damages. Also, MSFT holds approximately 15% of the search market and GOOG, who holds ~66% of the market, paid only $15.9 million in past damages. So, what will MSFT pay for past damages?
Again, my view would definitely change if JJ changed the calculation on Google's past damages, or, hiked the running royalty because he realized VRNG was screwed out of past damages.
Baidu Is A Buy, Dude [View article]
SunPower CEO Telegraphs Big Second Half [View article]
First Solar Inc: Time To Buy? [View article]
I am positioning myself to take advantage of, what will be, record 3rd and 4th quarters for Sunpower. http://seekingalpha.co...
SunPower CEO Telegraphs Big Second Half [View article]
You make a great point. I did accidentally make an apples to oranges comparison. I have worked with the SA editors to remove the GAAP versus Non-GAAP comparison. However, I do feel like there is value in reviewing the Non-GAAP SPWR numbers. To me, its a better indicator of how the business itself is doing. I realize there is a lot of important fees, debts, charge-offs etc stripped out of Non-GAAP numbers.
Anyway, thank you for very much for catching my oversight.
SunPower CEO Telegraphs Big Second Half [View article]
Either way, can I ask you something? Are you long FSLR because you are certainly coming off as defensive. I'm not an FSLR basher and I'm actually thinking of buying shares of that company as well as I feel the entire industry is slowly turning. I also feel, based on the efficiency numbers released by both companies, that Sunpower has the better product.
Also, how can Totals 60-some percent stake in SPWR be bad for the company? In fact, it has been a stabilizing factor during the recent relentlessly bad solar environment. Totals presence has allowed SPWR to win contracts in South Africa, which is a geographic location they never would have been involved in.
In any case, can you please let me know what is your involvement is with FSLR? I am detecting some serious defensiveness.
SunPower CEO Telegraphs Big Second Half [View article]
http://bit.ly/YfvdLb