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QuandaryFX  

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  • What Every Investor Needs To Know About The Dollar [View article]
    Thanks - the rate did increase, but I was only looking at long periods of duration of consistent rate and at a relative trough vs. what came before and after. Those were my key assumptions for analysis.
    Aug 29, 2015. 03:19 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • What Every Investor Needs To Know About The Dollar [View article]
    Entirely possible, my general view is that this "time is never different", however.
    Aug 29, 2015. 03:18 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Once Again, Buy The Euro [View article]
    Can't really give specific advice as to how you should time your investments, but I believe in general it is good advice to determine exactly what you're trying to accomplish in your investments and craft a strategy that meets your objectives.
    Aug 29, 2015. 03:12 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Stay Calm And Sell, Sell, Sell! [View article]
    I have not found convincing evidence that these drive stock market changes on the time periods I evaluate.
    Aug 27, 2015. 06:08 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Stay Calm And Sell, Sell, Sell! [View article]
    If the past is to be even a rough guide to the future, then stock market pullbacks last anywhere from 3 months to over a year. The current pullback of 2 weeks hasn't fully run its course I believe.
    Aug 27, 2015. 06:08 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Stay Calm And Sell, Sell, Sell! [View article]
    I'm looking at a percent change on a year-over-year basis. It is increasing on a month over month basis but still down on a year-over-year basis.
    Aug 27, 2015. 06:06 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Stay Calm And Sell, Sell, Sell! [View article]
    Always a potential - the numbers indicate that changes in manufacturing do drive significant changes in the market regardless of unemployment.

    Thanks for the feedback!
    Aug 27, 2015. 06:06 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 3 Reasons To Buy The Euro [View article]
    Definitely a great reminder - it's always important to be careful in counter currencies chosen.
    Aug 5, 2015. 07:47 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • This Is The Best Recovery Ever - And You Should Be Concerned [View article]
    Thank you for the feedback, I definitely do believe there is some uncertainty surrounding the government figures.
    Jul 22, 2015. 09:38 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Bank Of England Will Act - It's Time To Short The Pound [View article]
    Interesting thoughts - I believe we will see the Bank act in a way to devalue the pound. Whether that is through rates or a form of QE, I don't know - but the numbers indicate that unemployment may well rise and to obey its mandate, the BOE must do something.
    Jul 16, 2015. 07:23 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Market Is Sending A Warning: Are Investors Listening? [View article]
    There is not a fixed relationship between oil and the economy. The economic strength can be measured by simple metrics such as GDP and unemployment. At a high level, lower oil prices tends to help consumers in that gasoline prices generally are correlated to oil.
    Jul 16, 2015. 06:19 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Unusual Opportunities In Alcoa [View article]
    Posted a reply to another comment, I'll copy it here:

    When you think about refining costs, you need to think through the potential full ramifications. As energy costs drop, sure the input costs to Alcoa's processes drop. But what about energy companies that use steel that are slashing spending by billions? Will steel sales decrease as consumption of steel decreases? What about the slow in GDP that will arise from thousands who have already been laid off from exploration and production companies? The possibilities are limitless in terms of how crude prices can impact the security.

    I'd keep an open mind to the possibilities.
    Mar 16, 2015. 07:01 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Unusual Opportunities In Alcoa [View article]
    Posted a reply to another comment, I'll copy it here:

    When you think about refining costs, you need to think through the potential full ramifications. As energy costs drop, sure the input costs to Alcoa's processes drop. But what about energy companies that use steel that are slashing spending by billions? Will steel sales decrease as consumption decreases? What about the slow in GDP that will arise from thousands who have already been laid off from exploration and production companies? The possibilities are limitless in terms of how crude prices can impact the security.

    I'd keep an open mind to the possibilities.
    Mar 15, 2015. 04:54 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Unusual Opportunities In Alcoa [View article]
    Perhaps in future articles I'll work more on fully explaining the statistical background. It's basically saying "XYZ has happened, historically of the times this has happened, Alcoa has increase/decreased by Y". Just a simple, statistical test of the current market environment.

    When you think about refining costs, you need to think through the potential full ramifications. As energy costs drop, sure the input costs to their processes drop. But what about energy companies that use steel that are slashing spending by billions? Will steel sales decrease as consumption decreases? What about the slow in GDP that will arise from thousands who have already been laid off from exploration and production companies? The possibilities are limitless in terms of how crude prices can impact the security.

    Thanks for the feedback!
    Mar 15, 2015. 04:52 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Unusual Opportunities In Alcoa [View article]
    That's been said for years and yet statistics continue to play out, time and time again.

    Using your argument - Alcoa is different today than yesteryear - then your solution to buy and hold makes no sense. Why would you hold an unknown company into an unknown future? Maybe you're relying on past trends a little more than you're willing to admit? :p
    Mar 15, 2015. 04:47 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
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