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QuandaryFX  

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  • Prepare To Short Gold [View article]
    Thanks for the feedback,

    Gold is actually down 5% from the announcement of QE3. Each addition of QE has caused a decrease in marginal benefit to risk assets. QE4 very well may cause further declines in price.

    Best of luck with your investments.
    Dec 7, 2012. 09:32 AM | 10 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Prepare To Short Gold [View article]
    Good read: Extraordinary Popular Delusions and the Madness of Crowds. It talks extensively about bubbles. One of the prime methods you can detect a bubble on Seeking Alpha is the large quantity of dissident on an article. The existence of a bubble requires most of the public to be positioned in the direction of the trend, by definition.

    http://amzn.to/UiVo1o
    Dec 7, 2012. 09:36 AM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Prepare To Short Gold [View article]
    I differentiate this mentioned type of demand from actual demand. Actual demand is the industrial and business uses of the commodity. Any other purchase is investment / speculation which I believe is most appropriately categorized as sentiment. What will cause gold prices to (ultimately) plummet is the exhausted buying power of the masses. When this happens, it will gradually become a rush to exit, in my opinion.
    This is why I provided a technical framework on my analysis. This report may be incorrect and prices could go up 1000% - by using technical analysis we can best time our investment and protect capital during trading.
    Dec 7, 2012. 09:46 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Prepare To Short Gold [View article]
    QE3 actually had a depressive effect on gold in that price is down 5% from the announcement. If you study historic QE announcements, you'll probably find a decreasing marginal benefit to risk assets from each announcement. QE4 very well may lead to price declines.
    Dec 7, 2012. 09:49 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Prepare To Short Gold [View article]
    Thanks for the question. I think supply and demand are trivial for gold - we have 44 times the quarterly supply literally sitting in some form of storage. I really think what's driving the market is overly-bullish sentiment which is experiencing a correction.
    Dec 7, 2012. 09:30 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • It's Time To Short Natural Gas [View article]
    That's essentially what I'm getting at - I think the market is overestimating the supply and demand situation and we've got some further downside in store.
    Sep 24, 2014. 06:23 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Prepare To Short Gold [View article]
    That is entirely possible. This is why I advocate only participating when technical analysis confirms the breakdown. This will protect investors in the event that price continues its upward climb.
    Dec 7, 2012. 02:15 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Unusual Opportunities In Alcoa [View article]
    Posted a reply to another comment, I'll copy it here:

    When you think about refining costs, you need to think through the potential full ramifications. As energy costs drop, sure the input costs to Alcoa's processes drop. But what about energy companies that use steel that are slashing spending by billions? Will steel sales decrease as consumption decreases? What about the slow in GDP that will arise from thousands who have already been laid off from exploration and production companies? The possibilities are limitless in terms of how crude prices can impact the security.

    I'd keep an open mind to the possibilities.
    Mar 15, 2015. 04:54 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Unusual Opportunities In Alcoa [View article]
    Perhaps in future articles I'll work more on fully explaining the statistical background. It's basically saying "XYZ has happened, historically of the times this has happened, Alcoa has increase/decreased by Y". Just a simple, statistical test of the current market environment.

    When you think about refining costs, you need to think through the potential full ramifications. As energy costs drop, sure the input costs to their processes drop. But what about energy companies that use steel that are slashing spending by billions? Will steel sales decrease as consumption decreases? What about the slow in GDP that will arise from thousands who have already been laid off from exploration and production companies? The possibilities are limitless in terms of how crude prices can impact the security.

    Thanks for the feedback!
    Mar 15, 2015. 04:52 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Unusual Opportunities In Alcoa [View article]
    That's been said for years and yet statistics continue to play out, time and time again.

    Using your argument - Alcoa is different today than yesteryear - then your solution to buy and hold makes no sense. Why would you hold an unknown company into an unknown future? Maybe you're relying on past trends a little more than you're willing to admit? :p
    Mar 15, 2015. 04:47 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Prepare To Short Gold [View article]
    My funds are tied up in SPXL and currency positions. My trading horizon is a few weeks to a month so my most suitable investment at the moment is in the market. Here's my justification:

    http://seekingalpha.co...-fiscal-cliff
    Dec 7, 2012. 09:40 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Unusual Opportunities In Alcoa [View article]
    Posted a reply to another comment, I'll copy it here:

    When you think about refining costs, you need to think through the potential full ramifications. As energy costs drop, sure the input costs to Alcoa's processes drop. But what about energy companies that use steel that are slashing spending by billions? Will steel sales decrease as consumption of steel decreases? What about the slow in GDP that will arise from thousands who have already been laid off from exploration and production companies? The possibilities are limitless in terms of how crude prices can impact the security.

    I'd keep an open mind to the possibilities.
    Mar 16, 2015. 07:01 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • It's Time To Short Natural Gas [View article]
    I believe there is still a higher probability of decrease than increase. The mathematical expectancy of the trade will be subject to each traders' time horizon and other factors.

    Speculative money flow can be key in many trades, thanks for the reminder.
    Sep 24, 2014. 06:25 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • It's Time To Short Natural Gas [View article]
    Best of luck - that certainly is a possibility.
    Sep 24, 2014. 06:20 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Buy The Euro, Short The Franc, And Profit From The Currency War [View article]
    That is always a possibility. In which case, I believe the natural laws of supply and demand will lead to a collapse in the currency similar to what was seen during the Euro melt-down. My stop-loss is essentially a play that the rate will be held.
    Sep 24, 2014. 06:19 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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