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QuandaryFX  

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  • Unusual Opportunities In Alcoa [View article]
    Posted a reply to another comment, I'll copy it here:

    When you think about refining costs, you need to think through the potential full ramifications. As energy costs drop, sure the input costs to Alcoa's processes drop. But what about energy companies that use steel that are slashing spending by billions? Will steel sales decrease as consumption of steel decreases? What about the slow in GDP that will arise from thousands who have already been laid off from exploration and production companies? The possibilities are limitless in terms of how crude prices can impact the security.

    I'd keep an open mind to the possibilities.
    Mar 16, 2015. 07:01 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Unusual Opportunities In Alcoa [View article]
    Posted a reply to another comment, I'll copy it here:

    When you think about refining costs, you need to think through the potential full ramifications. As energy costs drop, sure the input costs to Alcoa's processes drop. But what about energy companies that use steel that are slashing spending by billions? Will steel sales decrease as consumption decreases? What about the slow in GDP that will arise from thousands who have already been laid off from exploration and production companies? The possibilities are limitless in terms of how crude prices can impact the security.

    I'd keep an open mind to the possibilities.
    Mar 15, 2015. 04:54 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Unusual Opportunities In Alcoa [View article]
    Perhaps in future articles I'll work more on fully explaining the statistical background. It's basically saying "XYZ has happened, historically of the times this has happened, Alcoa has increase/decreased by Y". Just a simple, statistical test of the current market environment.

    When you think about refining costs, you need to think through the potential full ramifications. As energy costs drop, sure the input costs to their processes drop. But what about energy companies that use steel that are slashing spending by billions? Will steel sales decrease as consumption decreases? What about the slow in GDP that will arise from thousands who have already been laid off from exploration and production companies? The possibilities are limitless in terms of how crude prices can impact the security.

    Thanks for the feedback!
    Mar 15, 2015. 04:52 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Unusual Opportunities In Alcoa [View article]
    That's been said for years and yet statistics continue to play out, time and time again.

    Using your argument - Alcoa is different today than yesteryear - then your solution to buy and hold makes no sense. Why would you hold an unknown company into an unknown future? Maybe you're relying on past trends a little more than you're willing to admit? :p
    Mar 15, 2015. 04:47 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • It's Time To Short Natural Gas [View article]
    I believe there is still a higher probability of decrease than increase. The mathematical expectancy of the trade will be subject to each traders' time horizon and other factors.

    Speculative money flow can be key in many trades, thanks for the reminder.
    Sep 24, 2014. 06:25 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • It's Time To Short Natural Gas [View article]
    That's essentially what I'm getting at - I think the market is overestimating the supply and demand situation and we've got some further downside in store.
    Sep 24, 2014. 06:23 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • It's Time To Short Natural Gas [View article]
    Best of luck - that certainly is a possibility.
    Sep 24, 2014. 06:20 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Buy The Euro, Short The Franc, And Profit From The Currency War [View article]
    That is always a possibility. In which case, I believe the natural laws of supply and demand will lead to a collapse in the currency similar to what was seen during the Euro melt-down. My stop-loss is essentially a play that the rate will be held.
    Sep 24, 2014. 06:19 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sell The Canadian Dollar, Buy The United States Dollar [View article]
    I've found that the perception of when an event will occur is significantly more impacting on the market than the actual event.
    Sep 24, 2014. 06:17 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sell The Canadian Dollar, Buy The United States Dollar [View article]
    The way I see it, as more capital floods into the economy, the currency will strengthen. CPI is a good metric for measuring the flow of this capital into the economy in my opinion. So under this view of the metric, as CPI increases, the currency may increase as well.
    Sep 24, 2014. 06:16 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sell The Canadian Dollar, Buy The United States Dollar [View article]
    Great points - these factors you point to will certainly play a role as well.
    Sep 24, 2014. 06:12 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Buy The Euro, Short The Franc, And Profit From The Currency War [View article]
    Thanks for your feedback, I appreciate your comment.

    QuandaryFX
    Sep 19, 2014. 07:47 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Prepare To Short Gold [View article]
    My personal favorite: Devil Take the Hindmost

    http://amzn.to/VoB0No

    Thanks for your feedback
    Dec 7, 2012. 02:46 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Buy The Fiscal Cliff [View article]
    Thanks for your feedback. Fortunately, I am not relying on luck but rather a tested system which has proven to beat the market consistently for 62 years.

    Best of luck with your trades.
    Dec 7, 2012. 02:20 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Prepare To Short Gold [View article]
    That is entirely possible. This is why I advocate only participating when technical analysis confirms the breakdown. This will protect investors in the event that price continues its upward climb.
    Dec 7, 2012. 02:15 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
28 Comments
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