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  • Sorry Bears, We're In A Secular Bull Market [View article]
    So when I ask you when the secular bear market started you’ll tell me March 2000, right? Yet the S&P peaked at 1552 and is 1515 now. Where’s the bear market? The market’s two huge declines have been matched by rallies of the same magnitude. The market has been range bound for 13 years with cyclical bull and bear markets within it. Anyone who calls this period a secular bear market simply can’t read a chart. Furthermore, if this market breaks out then looking at any very long term chart, say 50 years or more, this 13 year period will look like consolidation within a secular bull market that began in 1994.
    Feb 22, 2013. 11:14 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sorry Bears, We're In A Secular Bull Market [View article]
    "I think people usually think about 12-20 years. IN other words, there should be plenty of time to get on board if this turns out to be the real deal. ; )"

    I agree.
    Feb 22, 2013. 09:05 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sorry Bears, We're In A Secular Bull Market [View article]
    Pollyserial, I noticed you wrote “secular bear market.” Since peaking about where we are now in 2000, the S&P fell for two years to about 800. Then rose over a five year period back to where it was. Then declined again to 700ish in about one year and rose back to where we are now, where we started. In other words: we have had two declines and two ascensions of equal magnitude since 2000. You cannot say that either decline is a secular bear market without labeling the uptrends secular bulls. The truth is all four trends were cyclical.
    Feb 22, 2013. 09:03 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sorry Bears, We're In A Secular Bull Market [View article]
    A secular bull market is defined as an uptrend that lasts a long time with only small bear markets within it. It has nothing to do with debt, GDP, unemployment, earnings, or anything else. Just that a market goes up for a long time. So, how long is long?
    Feb 22, 2013. 08:51 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Sorry Bears, We're In A Secular Bull Market [View article]
    To all the bears: What constitutes a secular bull market? Most definitions simply define one as an uptrend that lasts a “long time.” March will mark four years. Is that long enough? Is five years long enough? Do you think price matters? The DOW is flagging 66 points under it’s all time highs and will break out very soon, perhaps Monday. Would that qualify, at least for the DOW. The RUT is already at all time highs as is the Dow Trans. The S&P is not far away. So, would price count? If not, how long over the old highs do we need to trade before you define it as secular? I just want to know how we can define when the author is right.
    Feb 22, 2013. 08:15 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Sorry Bears, We're In A Secular Bull Market [View article]
    Dear Jonathan, You are a genius. I had to read the article quickly so I could get the the comments.

    Signed, -QT
    Feb 22, 2013. 07:26 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Makes You Want To Say: Yahoo! [View article]
    This article links to yours.

    http://on.barrons.com/...
    Feb 13, 2013. 11:11 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Makes You Want To Say: Yahoo! [View article]
    Wow! Seth. A shout out from Barron's. Oh my..
    Feb 13, 2013. 02:21 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Dozen Disasters: Dive In Or Defer? [View article]
    SD has killed me but I keep coming back for more though I'm beginning to think the real value in energy is the Canadian E&Ps.

    My wife says COH is not cool anymore. Stay away from this one.
    Feb 11, 2013. 02:18 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Top 10 Pick: Buy NCR (And Then Again) [View article]
    Q4 earnings call was nearly giddy. The company's high end eps forcast for 2013 is $2.75 and $4.25 for 2015.

    I think the stock is fairly valued at $42 by late this year and $60 by late 2014.

    Whatta ya think?
    Feb 8, 2013. 01:34 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Best Is Yet To Come For Tecumseh Products [View article]
    Very good! Tecumseh is a lay up. I'm very glad to hear from someone with local knowledge of the Indian real estate market. I had some doubters when I published the first of my Tecumseh articles.

    http://seekingalpha.co...
    Feb 5, 2013. 01:57 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tecumseh: Immediate Action By Board Of Directors Could Richly Reward Shareholders [View article]
    The filings are coming fast and furious now aren't they.

    It looks like the Herrick resignation has paved the way. For those who have not read the new filing, it seems the board recently turned down an $8 p/s offer. Roumell is asking the board to state their intentions concerning asset sales, restructuring and special dividend. The filing is here.

    http://1.usa.gov/W05wll
    Jan 23, 2013. 10:04 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Has Genworth Turned The Corner? [View article]
    Excellent article! GNW is my largest holding. Any guesses on an Australian MI IPO?
    Jan 22, 2013. 04:28 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Tecumseh: Immediate Action By Board Of Directors Could Richly Reward Shareholders [View article]
    Thank you 358392. I saw the release about Herrick last night. Let's hope the board is moving now.
    Jan 22, 2013. 10:24 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tecumseh: Immediate Action By Board Of Directors Could Richly Reward Shareholders [View article]
    Barron's reports today on Roumell's latest 13D. Here is part of what they report:

    Roumell cited two recent instances when individual investors "showed substantial interest" but said it is "concerned that the company is not sufficiently considering these, and possibly other, legitimate ideas being put forth." Specifically, Roumell called on the board to "immediately engage in substantive negotiations" with one of the outside investors.

    http://on.barrons.com/...
    Jan 19, 2013. 02:18 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
86 Comments
89 Likes