Quinn Bredl

Value, growth, long-term horizon
Quinn Bredl
Value, growth, long-term horizon
Contributor since: 2012
Thanks for pointing out my mistake; I'll be sure to fix that asap. In regard to your question, I definitely think that these are overlooked by the market. A warrant trading at a 0% premium with 5+ until expiration is almost unbelievable. A reason for this could be that the warrants are so deep into the money: the deeper ITM a warrant trades, the smaller the warrant premium. But even so, MTB is a quality company with smart management and strong earnings, and I can see the common trading significantly higher by 2018. If you're long common, I don't see why you shouldn't be long the warrants.
According to the prospectus it was listed as MTB WS
I agree with you 100% on that one Brad. People seem to forget that these days.
Thanks so much for the encouragement, especially since things can get pretty discouraging in the market. I really do appreciate it.
That's a great point but my portfolio isn't that heavily weighted in oil and gas; I try to stay somewhat diversified. It just so happens that 3 of my 10 favorite stocks are in the industry.
Haha definitely the latter. But some think that I do look like him a bit. And Jimmy I'm sorry you feel that way, just trying to get a head start like you apparently did.
I know exactly how you feel; and I absolutely agree with you about Joy flying under the radar. It's not really a stock on people's watchlist, but it really should be.
It's just something for short term investors/traders to keep in mind. And for those in it for the long haul, a buyout is far from the worst thing that can happen.
There's no denying that Starbucks has strong sales power.
I could charge you a few bucks to open up a lemonade stand right next to my juice bar; but we're still competing against each other. And you could bet a whole lot of money that your little lemonade stand isn't going to hold up too well against the competition. And in this case, it hasn't.
That would be the legendary Buddy Holly.
Looking back I realize that Westport isn't the best comparison to Cummins. Sorry for my misjudgement in that area; but I still believe that Cummins is a solid value at these price levels.
Thanks for pointing that out; I hadn't even noticed.
I'm not trying to compare Lulu to Apple specifically. I'm just pointing out the fact that even higher caliber TECH companies are trading at cheaper valuations than Lulu. I'm just trying to say that there are better investments out there.
The warrants are traded on NYSE under (AIG-WT).
The store closest to me is actually in a high end town; but it's empty every time I walk by. Maybe I just scare everyone away.
While I do think that Amazon is extremely overpriced, bankruptcy is unlikely since there are currently no creditors to be repaid.
Congrats on making ETN work as a short term trading play; I'm more focused on the long term, personally. But about the shorts, I'm not worried about them at all. There's not much more room to the downside, unless something drastic occurs, so they should be covering their positions soon. And if the market was to have a strong rally, a short squeeze would make you a nice chunk of change in a short amount of time.
As long as Eaton maintains strong cash flows, they should easily be a able to pay off debt. And if you look at other industrials, like CAT, they hold $1.65B in cash and $35.96B in debt; so there are more concerning balance sheets out there. Eaton's balance sheet might not be perfect; but it shouldn't be a serious concern for investors.
It may be a good idea to consider adding more to your positition at these price levels if you're feeling confident that oil will rally.
Of the three, I find Suncor as the most compelling buy. It seems tremendously undervalued with the numbers it has.
What really surprises me is how well DE has held up. One would think that the same economic conditions hurting JOY would be hurting DE similarly. This tells me that DE either has a long way down or that JOY has a good run up. But JOY still, in the near term, should be pretty volatile and if it does happen to venture down to the low 40s then I'll definitely be adding more to the position I plan to initiate.
Earnings are great; but as long these companies can generate strong cash flows, their dividends should be safe. ETP has pretty volatile FCF, so the dividend is covered some quarters, but not in others. Also, ETP hasn't raised its dividend since the financial crisis so it seems that management is trying to stay somewhat conservative.
The payout ratio indicates what percentage of earnings is paid out; but what really matters for dividends is free cash flow rather than earnings.
QUAD seems like an interesting play with solid FCF; but thin margins and a high short interest are things that I'd watch out for.
Thanks for bringing up this point. I tried digging deeper into some of ETP's cash flows and capex and discovered that they are both extremely unpredictable, so FCF is volatile (covering the dividend some quarters while not doing so in others); but the company has still been able to maintain hefty payouts, although without a dividend increase since mid 2008. I found these links useful. http://bit.ly/NIZzjC
It seems like it could be a good play; but with cleaner balance sheets and some modest dividends I'd much rather go with one of the above.
Since you obviously have a crystal ball, do you mind telling me where you got it? Was it at the same place where you bought your fat ego?
According to Yahoo Finance, those are the correct numbers for POT.
From a fundamental standpoint all of these stocks seem extremely undervalued. I'm not speaking from a technical standpoint like you may be. And if Buffet thought that Goldman was a good deal at $120, then it must be an absolute steal at $90.
But that's not to say that these stocks aren't undervalued as well.
I totally agree with you; and I'm actually writing something about SDRL right now as it so happens.