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  • Apple Short Interest Has Skyrocketed - Negative Headlines Could Add To It
    Thu, Sep. 25 AAPL 73 Comments

    Summary

    • Short interest has jumped to the highest level in the last 5 months, and might go higher with recent negative headlines.
    • iPhone 6 customers reporting the phones are bending in pockets.
    • Newly released Apple iOS 8.0.1 update withdrawn due to glitches and customer complaints.
    • Apple's U2 iTunes promotion backfires and infuriates customers.
  • Geron's Imetelstat: No Threat Now Or Possibly Ever To Incyte's Jakafi Franchise
    Tue, Sep. 23 GERN 329 Comments

    Summary

    • Geron's past disappointments and massive dilution without ever having advanced a drug past a Phase 2 trial doesn't inspire confidence when handicapping the company's ability to advance Imetelstat to market.
    • Geron's one and only drug Imetelstat, while showing early promise, is currently under a FDA clinical hold for abnormal liver function tests.
    • Imetelstat is years away from market - and that is only if it gets the FDA clinical hold lifted and makes it through multiple rigorous clinical trials.
    • Incyte's Jakafi is the best available therapy for Myelofibrosis, offering much-needed relief and extended survival benefits to patients.
    • Jakafi is closing in on FDA approval for a second indication (polycythemia vera). PDUFA scheduled for December 5th. This additional indication could push Jakafi peak sales over $1B.
  • Incyte: Increasing Sales, Deep Pipeline, Multiple Catalysts, With A Side Of M&A Chatter
    Fri, Sep. 19 INCY 53 Comments

    Summary

    • Sales of Jakafi are increasing at a brisk clip.
    • Incyte has a deep, valuable, and advanced pipeline with multiple compounds targeting multiple indications.
    • Incy has two important near term (2H 2014) catalysts approaching - FDA approval for a second indication for ruxonitilib and a Phase III top-line data read out for Rheumatoid Arthritis.
    • Incyte is frequently mentioned as an acquisition target by multiple sources.
  • Apple Shares Are Ripe For A Pullback - Time To Take Profits
    Tue, Sep. 16 AAPL 146 Comments

    Summary

    • Declining profit margins and return on assets.
    • Declining smartphone market share while Android is increasing.
    • Latest product launch uninspiring - seemed to be playing catch-up and releasing "me-too" products.
  • Arena And Vivus Ruined The FDA Approval Run Up For Orexigen
    Sat, Sep. 13 OREX 44 Comments

    Summary

    • Arena and Vivus spiked into FDA Approval in June and July of 2012.
    • Arena's Belviq and Vivus's Qsymia have both been disappointments.
    • Consequently Orexigen didn't see much of a pre FDA run-up due to Arena and Vivus draining all the excitement out of the obesity drug market.
    • Avoid obesity drug stocks.
  • 4 Reasons Sangamo Biosciences Is Positioned For A Run-Up
    Fri, Sep. 12 SGMO 7 Comments

    Summary

    • Targeting multiple indications.
    • Major pharma partnerships.
    • Large cash position.
    • Share price well below analyst estimates and near technical support.
  • 3 Reasons The Apple Launch Disappointed
    Wed, Sep. 10 AAPL 252 Comments

    Summary

    • No surprises - everything announced was expected.
    • No sapphire screen - the most important item to consumers based on surveys.
    • Lack of visionary leadership.
  • Qualcomm: Pressures Are Mounting
    Tue, Sep. 2 QCOM 46 Comments

    Summary

    • Intel recently hired Qualcomm's head of wireless as it relentlessly pursues Qualcomm market share.
    • Apple is reported to be working on its own in-house baseband chips which are currently supplied by Qualcomm.
    • Taiwan Semiconductor is reportedly allocating more of its 20nm resources for Apple's A8 forcing Qualcomm to look for foundry alternatives.
    • China and now the EU are investigating Qualcomm for monopolistic practices.
  • 3D Systems: Down 42% In 2014 And Still A Good Short
    Tue, Sep. 2 DDD 37 Comments

    Summary

    • 3D Systems' current valuation metrics are still very high and the shares are trading above fair value even after a 42% decline in 2014.
    • 3D Systems' outstanding shares have nearly doubled in two years.
    • 3D Systems' gross profit margin and EPS are on a downward trajectory.
    • 3D Systems' short interest is, not surprisingly, at all time highs.
  • 3 Reasons Intel Is A More Compelling Investment Than Taiwan Semiconductor
    Mon, Sep. 1 INTC 49 Comments

    Summary

    • Intel's R&D spending is 7x that of Taiwan Semiconductor while Intel's gross margins are 23% higher.
    • Intel offers shareholders a history of increasing dividends plus has a higher yield than Taiwan Semiconductor.
    • Intel has a generous $20B share buyback program in place.
  • Apple: Shares At All-Time Highs In Bull Market And Still A Great Buy
    Thu, Aug. 28 AAPL 62 Comments

    Summary

    • Apple's multiples compare favorably to peers, sector,and broader market.
    • Apple is currently trading under fair value as calculated by Graham's revised formula and a conservative DCF valuation.
    • Apple's growth prospects are good with the coming iPhone 6 launch and other new products.
    • Apple continues large share repurchases and increasing dividends.
  • Best Buy Shares Are Undervalued With Good Growth Prospects
    Mon, Aug. 25 BBY 11 Comments

    Summary

    • Best Buy is undervalued compared to peers and broader market.
    • Best Buy is trading below fair value.
    • Best Buy's balance sheet is solid.
    • Best Buy offers good growth prospects.
    • Best Buy's technicals are bullish.
  • Take-Two Interactive Shares Offer An Incredible Bargain
    Sun, Aug. 24 TTWO 20 Comments

    Summary

    • Take-Two's shares trade at a lower multiple than its peers and the broader market.
    • Take-Two's shares are significantly below fair value.
    • Take-Two's balance sheet is solid and growth prospects are good.
    • Take-Two's technicals are bullish.
  • HP's Q3 Shows PC Recovery Still Going Strong, Confirms Intel Is A Buy
    Thu, Aug. 21 INTC 17 Comments

    Summary

    • Hewlett-Packard reported year-over-year increases in PC revenues and shipments.
    • A recovering PC market allows Intel's PC division to subsidize its relentless quest to build mobile market share while still sporting a 64.5% overall gross margin.
    • Intel is perfectly positioned with the 14nm Broadwell release as PC sales recover - look for upward earnings revisions in Q3 and/or Q4.
  • Rackspace Hosting Is A Buy
    Tue, Aug. 19 RAX 8 Comments

    Summary

    • Rackspace filed an 8k reporting that it has been approached by multiple companies expressing interest ranging from partnership to acquisition.
    • High profile hedge funds have recently reported initiating large positions.
    • Technicals indicate a bounce and positive momentum trend.
  • How Vringo's Reversal At CAFC Just Increased My Confidence In A VirnetX Affirmation
    Mon, Aug. 18 VHC 33 Comments

    Summary

    • The Vringo reversal was a 2-1 majority with Judge Chen writing the dissent. Judge Chen sits on the VirnetX panel. His dissent language bodes well for VirnetX.
    • CAFC clearly says damages are looked at last and are not considered if the rest of the case doesn't hold up.
    • This is why the CAFC citation of the VirnetX v Apple damage methodologies as "upheld" in the Apple v Motorola precedential opinion is incredibly telling.
  • Intel Seeing Some Sweet Tailwinds - Now Is A Great Time To Own Stock
    Thu, Aug. 14 INTC 46 Comments

    Summary

    • Intel's XMM 7260 LTE-Advanced cellular modem chosen for newly launched Samsung Galaxy Alpha - a nice surprise. As more mobile wins pile up 2015 should be a tipping point.
    • Intel's 14nm Broadwell chips in volume production and shipping to OEMs - fantastic new form factors to be on shelves in Q4. IDF will showcase many in September.
    • Intel supplying $4B of share buying pressure this quarter as part of its $20B share buyback program. Another $4B - $6B next quarter.
  • Arrowhead's Hep B Phase 2a Topline Data Imminent - 'Transformational' Potential
    Tue, Aug. 12 ARWR 26 Comments

    Summary

    • CEO says Phase 2a topline data for Hep B candidate ARC-520 to come in Q3.
    • There are 350M-400M people infected with chronic hepatitis B (2X the Hep C market). CEO says functional cure for hepatitis B would be "transformational".
    • Bullish climate for drugs targeting diseases of the liver.
  • Signs Point To Affirmation Of VirnetX $368M Jury Award Against Apple At CAFC
    Tue, Jul. 8 VHC 36 Comments

    Summary

    • VirnetX expert damage calculation methodology in VirnetX v Apple case was cited as reliable by the CAFC in the Apple v Motorola case on 4/25/14 before appeal even ruled on.
    • Two of the judges on the VirnetX v Apple case (Rader & Prost) sat on the panel for Apple v Motorola where VirnetX expert damage methodology was cited as reliable.
    • Logic dictates damages would be the last part of the appeal considered. Why would the judges even consider damages if a remand or reversal for claim construction was coming?.
  • Apple Should Secure This Memory Technology Before Its Competition Does
    Dec. 4, 2013 AAPL 38 Comments
  • Micron Gets The 'Greenlight' From David Einhorn
    Nov. 23, 2013 MU 57 Comments
  • Rudolph Technologies: Shares Positioned For 40% Or More Upside For 2014
    Nov. 18, 2013 RTEC 3 Comments
  • Epizyme Shares Crater - Present Buying Opportunity
    Nov. 18, 2013 EPZM 6 Comments
  • Whale Watch - Seth Klarman's Baupost Group Takes Micron To 32% Of Portfolio
    Nov. 14, 2013 MU 31 Comments
  • Don't Buy Twitter Now - Wait For The Nosedive
    Nov. 8, 2013 TWTR 35 Comments
  • Apple/Microsoft's 'Rockstar Consortium' Attack Google And Android - Who Could Benefit?
    Nov. 4, 2013 VHC 11 Comments
  • Did The Symantec CEO Just Give A 'Tell' Regarding VirnetX?
    Oct. 23, 2013 VHC 9 Comments
  • A Case For Shorting Biopharma Drug Launches: 4 Recent Examples
    Oct. 7, 2013 AMRN, ARNA, AVNR 18 Comments
  • 8 Reasons Why I Expect Molycorp Shares To Double In 1Q 2014
    Oct. 3, 2013 MCP 64 Comments
  • VirnetX Patents Challenged By Recently Formed LLC - A Closer Look
    Aug. 26, 2013 VHC 21 Comments
  • Biolase CEO Takes Dead Aim At Naked Short Sellers - Main Street Cheers
    Aug. 20, 2013 BIOL 50 Comments
  • Is VirnetX The Nail Samsung Needs To Hammer Apple?
    Editors' Pick • Aug. 18, 2013 VHC 52 Comments