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  • Celladon: CUPID-2 Is Likely To Fail [View article]
    Great call. New follower here.
    Apr 27, 2015. 07:43 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • VirnetX / Apple Appeal: Bad News For VirnetX And Other Patent Assertion Entities [View article]
    financemc:

    Wrong. VirnetX patents are still in jeopardy.

    The CAFC only affirmed the jury's decision of "not invalid" - meaning that Apple didn't prove beyond "clear and convincing" evidence the patents are invalid. The CAFC did not validate the patents. It seems like parsing but it is an extremely important technical and legal difference. The CAFC does not "validate" patents.

    The PTAB uses a lower standard of evidence to examine/interpret the patent claims - "Broadest Reasonable Intrepretation" or Preponderance of evidence - thus the reason so many patents are getting knocked out.

    The PTAB would not be "reversing" the CAFC - it would be issuing its decision on invalidity using preponderance of evidence. In Baxter the CAFC upheld the PTAB's invalidity because the court case was not final including all appeals EVEN THOUGH THE CAFC HAD AFFIRMED PREVIOUSLY 'NOT INVALID'.

    Here is a link to a good summary regarding Baxter/Fresenious:
    http://bit.ly/1zZGiEe

    Here is an excerpt from that link:

    "As an initial matter, it is worth noting how the federal court and the PTO could reach opposite conclusions regarding the validity of the same patent. When an issued patent is challenged in federal court, the challenger, in this case Fresenius, must prove that the patent is invalid by clear and convincing evidence. Federal courts do not actually determine whether a patent is valid –because there is already a statutory presumption of validity – but rather determine whether the challenger has met its burden of proving that the patent is invalid.

    In contrast, in reexamination proceedings, the PTO determines invalidity (or unpatentability) by a "preponderance of the evidence" standard, a standard significantly easier to meet than the clear and convincing standard applied by federal courts. In addition, the claim scope in a PTO reexamination may be broader than the scope determined by a federal court, because the PTO is directed by statute to give claim terms the "broadest reasonable interpretation."Thus, given the different burdens of proof and potential variations in claim scope, it is not surprising that in some circumstances a federal court and the PTO will come to different conclusions regarding the validity of the same patent."

    You best do some reading...

    Good Luck.
    Apr 25, 2015. 05:16 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • VirnetX / Apple Appeal: Bad News For VirnetX And Other Patent Assertion Entities [View article]
    Mike,
    Thanks for commenting.

    I agree with you on the MSFT deal. That was obviously negotiated out of a position of weakness most likely from:
    1. Adverse CAFC decision
    2. MSFT IPRs had just been instituted
    3. En Banc denial
    4. VirnetX cash position and insignificant revenues

    VirnetX only netted around $16M from the $23M MSFT deal - Nobody in their right mind can believe that is what they were looking for from Skype and Lync. I think this deal could give them trouble if they try to argue for $700M again for Facetime and iMessage(in the new portion of the consolidated trial).

    Regarding the patents I agree...VirnetX has fought fiercely to keep the patents out of the PTAB's purview. The '697 IPR Apple filed has nearly gone the distance and is just waiting for the PTAB ruling in May/June timeframe - the hearing sounds like there was confusion and not necessarily favorable to VirnetX. If the losing party appeals to the CAFC - they can look forward to a CAFC that reverses about 10% of the USPTO decisions on average.
    http://1.usa.gov/1DJGsjV
    (Look under Appeals Filed, Terminated, and Pending)

    I think the patents are going to have to go the distance with the PTAB and probable CAFC appeal before any meaningful licensing will come on board - if they survive.

    It will be interesting to see how they market Gabriel. I think it looks like a useful app but it is curious that it wasn't developed 5 years ago...For instance why not develop it shortly after the first MSFT settlement with the money rather than issue a large dividend?
    Apr 25, 2015. 06:08 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • VirnetX / Apple Appeal: Bad News For VirnetX And Other Patent Assertion Entities [View article]
    Mike Farmwald,
    Congrats on an incredibly accurate call on this article. I was wrong about the CAFC decision and should've given your analysis more weight - I didn't like the tone of the hearing but somehow was able to dismiss it. Then when the CAFC cited the damages in another case - before this case was decided I thought logically they were endorsing the VirnetX damage experts theories. Wrong.

    I was wondering if you are still following VirnetX v Apple and if you have you put any thought into the consolidated trial and potential outcome. I'd be interested to hear your views. Well played.
    Apr 20, 2015. 02:35 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Micron: Memory, Oligopolies And Valuation [View article]
    Time to buy puts!
    Mar 31, 2015. 07:08 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Intel: What The Company Will Show At Mobile World Congress [View article]
    Hmmmm...
    Mar 2, 2015. 09:20 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 3D Systems: Down 42% In 2014 And Still A Good Short [View article]
    Lonnie,
    DDD still on it's way to drop below 20. Have you ejected from this house of cards yet?
    Jan 31, 2015. 07:22 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Qualcomm: Pressures Are Mounting [View article]
    Be interesting to hear Hal's outlook now...
    Jan 31, 2015. 07:11 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • It's A MARA-Thon, Not A Sprint In The Patent Monetization Space [View article]
    Excellent.
    Jan 29, 2015. 11:58 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Intel: Another Fire Drill By Bernstein This Time [View article]
    I check Russ's comments every single day. His articles are typically inclusive of industry insight, common sense calculations, option plays, potential outcomes, and a killer sense of humor.

    That fact that he was bangin' the drum loudly on Micron before, during, and after the Elpida deal - then seeing Seth Klarmen and David Einhorn building huge positions is telling. I bet they were wishing he would shut his pie-hole so they could keep accumulating at fire-sale prices.

    This peasant appreciates his free advice and insights.
    Nov 9, 2014. 10:18 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Qualcomm: Pressures Are Mounting [View article]
    Where's Hal?
    Nov 5, 2014. 05:25 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • At Current Levels, Geron Has A Very Favorable Risk/Reward Profile [View article]
    Phil,
    I was interested to hear your observations on what happened today based on your professional experience. Do you see GERN eclipsing $3 by the ASH abstract release?
    Oct 28, 2014. 04:24 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 3D Systems: Down 42% In 2014 And Still A Good Short [View article]
    Lonnie,
    You are getting hammered on DDD. You should've shorted it when I recommended. This thing is going to implode - I expect this house of cards could collapse to sub $20 per share.
    Oct 22, 2014. 08:08 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • At Current Levels, Geron Has A Very Favorable Risk/Reward Profile [View article]
    MedGuy103,
    I agree with your assessment.
    Oct 17, 2014. 07:00 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • At Current Levels, Geron Has A Very Favorable Risk/Reward Profile [View article]
    Phil,
    you ask:
    "If YOU had MF and were going to die, which drug would YOU want? You want to possibly live an extra month or two? Or do you want to LIVE???"

    I'll tell you what I would want. I would want the best available drug that is available TODAY (as in right now) and has been through multiple trials of rigorous scientific efficacy and safety testing. If Imet makes it safely through the trials some day and is proven to better drug for my patient type - then sure I would want it because it would be the best available.

    I only mention the shares outstanding as it relates to trading around ASH. There are approximately 20% more shares outstanding compared to last year - so a similar type of run up would yield a lower share price than last year all things being equal.

    I do agree with you that a $100 or $200 share price sounds asinine to talk about right now - in fact it sounds downright ridiculous as the price sits at $1.90. I would be really happy if it hit $5 or $6 bucks going into and through ASH - I would sell sell sell - because I think it is very likely the company will dilute again if the shares take off.
    Oct 10, 2014. 09:53 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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