Hi Chris, I keep hearing about "reverse conversion" option plays being an arbitrage situation when options are overpriced - something like you short the underlying stock then buy a call and short a put with the same month same $ amount. I'm not an options player but it seems this can be used as an arbitrage situation or a method to create synthetic shares to keep the lid on a particular stock. Any thoughts?
VirnetX And Google? Will Apple Settle, Or Risk Going The Distance? [View article]
Blaise... blah blah blah...Here I'll play your game... I love how all of you guys said VHC was a joke, patent troll, and $0 revenue when it was $5 per share. It must be particularly painful to see it up over 600 percent over the last 3 years. Or how about VRNG up 300% over this last year....? Yes - horrible investments - just complete jokes aren't they(cue the dripping sarcasm) as they both walk away with jury decisions over MSFT, GOOG, AAPL, AOL, TGT, etc...
Keep on whining - it is entertaining if nothing else. I'm here to turn my $1 into $10 by investing in stocks that go up. You can continue to do nothing and whine about how unfair it all is etc...
VirnetX And Google? Will Apple Settle, Or Risk Going The Distance? [View article]
I am also long WDDD.OB - They are suing Activision for infringing on their 3D/virtual world patents with Call of Duty and World of Warcraft....check it out. Markman Hearing coming 6/27/13.
VirnetX And Google? Will Apple Settle, Or Risk Going The Distance? [View article]
mktlab68 - thank you and thanks for reading. I'm also invested in VRNG right now. I haven't written about them because there have been so many articles on VRNG there isn't much more to say. Best of luck to you!
Will Patent Office Eliminate Vringo's Right To Future Royalties From Google? [View article]
I would just caution readers about some things... 1. USPTO Re-Exam requests are common in patent disputes. 2. The USPTO almost 100% of the time issues initial "rejections" of the claims in dispute - this is standard operating procedure. There is a very long and winding road when it comes to re-exams...Go look up VirnetX (VHC) if you would like to learn more about this process. The way USPTO verbage reads in this process can sound very scary to the patent holder company's investors but until a final office action rejection is issued the patent stands...Even then it can be appealed and can and does take years to be fully resolved (I seem to recall 63 months on average - can anybody confirm this?) 3. This author has disclosed a short position - which is fine.
My opinion is one needs to have a willing suspension of disbelief to think the judge will lower the 3 co-defendents damage awards and believe based on the evidence presented that Google's damage award was nothing more than a "clear" transposition error. In conjunction with that Dr. Becker's affidavit refutation of the 2.8% number that Google backed into from this supposed transposition error is somewhat laughable(the 2.8% is laughable not Dr Becker's affidavit). Also there is precedent for a federal judge fixing a "clear" clerical error in the East District of Texas if that is what this turns out to be.
In any event - I think Dan is a solid person who is presenting the facts as he sees them and I enjoy reading his articles. I also like how Steve Kimlaw looks at the facts and tries to determine what a logical outcome would be based on the facts, evidence, and testimonies.
Please don't personally attack Dan. Have confidence in your investment. Write a counter article on SA if you wish. I for one like hearing the pros and cons of my investment - it makes me a better investor and it keeps me from getting emotionally attached to my investments.
Vringo Vs. Google: The Sky's Not Falling [View article]
I am having a hard time believing the judge won't adjust the past damage award upwards - since it appears to be an obvious math error. What if the Jury had accidentally used 350% and awarded VRNG $1.5B - you think Google would be arguing that their past damage calculation was correct and the other co-defendents were wrong? Of course not. It is a simple math error and I believe it will be corrected just as a $1.5B error going the other direction would be corrected.
Why Vringo Will Likely Receive The 3.5% On Going Royalty Rate In Future Damages [View instapost]
I am having a hard time believing the judge won't adjust the past damage award upwards - since it appears to be an obvious mistake. What if the Jury had accidentally used 350% and awarded VRNG $1.5B - you think Google would be arguing that their past damage calculation was correct and the other co-defendents were wrong? Of course not. It is a simple math error and I believe it will be corrected just as a $1.5B error going the other direction would be corrected.
4 Biotech Stocks With Important Catalysts Approaching [View article]
Hi bil - thanks for reading and a good question. I don't know if Arena will be bought out or not. It is complicated with their Eisai arrangement. I don't think they need to be bought out to unlock a large share price appreciation. If they were to get taken out I would guess it would be in the $4B - $5B range which would equate to a share price of somewhere between $20 and $25.
4 Biotech Stocks With Important Catalysts Approaching [View article]
Hi Paulson545 - thank you for reading the article and good questions - I'll do my best: 1. Insiders sell for a variety of reasons. ARNA has experienced far less insider selling than most biotechs - in fact Jack Lief the CEO and co-founder hasn't sold any shares. This is probably just routine end of the year tax selling. I'm not concerned about it at all. 2. The best resource for reading about the scheduling of drugs is on the DEA site here: http://1.usa.gov/QMwL0h Basically Belviq will most likely be a schedule IV or V - a very remote possibility would be III but none of the data supports that scheduling.
4 Biotech Stocks With Important Catalysts Approaching [View article]
Excellent - thank you for reading the article and adding your comment. Each of these companies have multiple positive things going on - I tried to focus on the most imminent large catalysts. I think Arena should gain EMA approval and will ultimately crush VVUS. It is safer and effective for obesity and type II DM.
I hope not... 2 separate juries convicted MSFT and AAPL for stealing VirnetX technology with MSFT doing it "willfully" (as in trying to patent the exact same technology and when they couldn't they just stole it). The USPTO awarded the patents. The patents have withstood multiple re-exams without even ONE claim receiving a final rejection. Hmmm...maybe you should be directing your anger towards the large multi-billion dollar companies that think they can steal intellectual property with impunity because they have big bank accounts and can bury little companies in an endless storm of legal paper and tie the courts up for years with ridiculous motions and nonsense stall tactics till most give up. A total abuse and clogging of the court system.
Good thing Judge Leonard Davis doesn't put up with that garbage. One of the best.
Alcatel-Lucent Wins Major Contract In China, But Is It Enough? [View article]
Excellent read as usual from Kinetic Investments. I agree and think ALU is a "zero". It is sinking under its awful debt. I wouldn't doubt that it is just about giving its equipment away - look for continued terrible margins.
Dynavax Shares Poised To Run Higher As Heplisav Approaches Important Catalysts [View article]
Planned sale once the stock closed above $5 per share Symphony Capital did a 6M share prearranged private sale with Blackrock at $4.86 per share. No dilution. Symphony still owns 3M shares - with a cost basis of $1 per share. Everything on track. I bought more in the low $4.70's today.
Dynavax Shares Poised To Run Higher As Heplisav Approaches Important Catalysts [View article]
Thank you Ted - your kind comment just reminded me I need to be following your articles - always enjoy your analysis - just always forget to hit follow! I think DVAX has based nicely here and is primed for the next leg up. I like Hepsaliv's chances for approval and it should the "no-brainer" standard-of-care once approved.
Event Driven Q&A Forum [View instapost]
I keep hearing about "reverse conversion" option plays being an arbitrage situation when options are overpriced - something like you short the underlying stock then buy a call and short a put with the same month same $ amount. I'm not an options player but it seems this can be used as an arbitrage situation or a method to create synthetic shares to keep the lid on a particular stock. Any thoughts?
VirnetX And Google? Will Apple Settle, Or Risk Going The Distance? [View article]
blah blah blah...Here I'll play your game...
I love how all of you guys said VHC was a joke, patent troll, and $0 revenue when it was $5 per share. It must be particularly painful to see it up over 600 percent over the last 3 years. Or how about VRNG up 300% over this last year....? Yes - horrible investments - just complete jokes aren't they(cue the dripping sarcasm) as they both walk away with jury decisions over MSFT, GOOG, AAPL, AOL, TGT, etc...
Keep on whining - it is entertaining if nothing else. I'm here to turn my $1 into $10 by investing in stocks that go up. You can continue to do nothing and whine about how unfair it all is etc...
VirnetX And Google? Will Apple Settle, Or Risk Going The Distance? [View article]
VirnetX And Google? Will Apple Settle, Or Risk Going The Distance? [View article]
Will Patent Office Eliminate Vringo's Right To Future Royalties From Google? [View article]
1. USPTO Re-Exam requests are common in patent disputes.
2. The USPTO almost 100% of the time issues initial "rejections" of the claims in dispute - this is standard operating procedure. There is a very long and winding road when it comes to re-exams...Go look up VirnetX (VHC) if you would like to learn more about this process. The way USPTO verbage reads in this process can sound very scary to the patent holder company's investors but until a final office action rejection is issued the patent stands...Even then it can be appealed and can and does take years to be fully resolved (I seem to recall 63 months on average - can anybody confirm this?)
3. This author has disclosed a short position - which is fine.
My opinion is one needs to have a willing suspension of disbelief to think the judge will lower the 3 co-defendents damage awards and believe based on the evidence presented that Google's damage award was nothing more than a "clear" transposition error. In conjunction with that Dr. Becker's affidavit refutation of the 2.8% number that Google backed into from this supposed transposition error is somewhat laughable(the 2.8% is laughable not Dr Becker's affidavit). Also there is precedent for a federal judge fixing a "clear" clerical error in the East District of Texas if that is what this turns out to be.
In any event - I think Dan is a solid person who is presenting the facts as he sees them and I enjoy reading his articles. I also like how Steve Kimlaw looks at the facts and tries to determine what a logical outcome would be based on the facts, evidence, and testimonies.
Please don't personally attack Dan. Have confidence in your investment. Write a counter article on SA if you wish. I for one like hearing the pros and cons of my investment - it makes me a better investor and it keeps me from getting emotionally attached to my investments.
Long VRNG.
Vringo Vs. Google: The Sky's Not Falling [View article]
Of course not.
It is a simple math error and I believe it will be corrected just as a $1.5B error going the other direction would be corrected.
Why Vringo Will Likely Receive The 3.5% On Going Royalty Rate In Future Damages [View instapost]
Of course not.
It is a simple math error and I believe it will be corrected just as a $1.5B error going the other direction would be corrected.
4 Biotech Stocks With Important Catalysts Approaching [View article]
4 Biotech Stocks With Important Catalysts Approaching [View article]
4 Biotech Stocks With Important Catalysts Approaching [View article]
1. Insiders sell for a variety of reasons. ARNA has experienced far less insider selling than most biotechs - in fact Jack Lief the CEO and co-founder hasn't sold any shares. This is probably just routine end of the year tax selling. I'm not concerned about it at all.
2. The best resource for reading about the scheduling of drugs is on the DEA site here: http://1.usa.gov/QMwL0h
Basically Belviq will most likely be a schedule IV or V - a very remote possibility would be III but none of the data supports that scheduling.
4 Biotech Stocks With Important Catalysts Approaching [View article]
VirnetX: The Fuse Has Been Lit [View article]
2 separate juries convicted MSFT and AAPL for stealing VirnetX technology with MSFT doing it "willfully" (as in trying to patent the exact same technology and when they couldn't they just stole it). The USPTO awarded the patents. The patents have withstood multiple re-exams without even ONE claim receiving a final rejection.
Hmmm...maybe you should be directing your anger towards the large multi-billion dollar companies that think they can steal intellectual property with impunity because they have big bank accounts and can bury little companies in an endless storm of legal paper and tie the courts up for years with ridiculous motions and nonsense stall tactics till most give up. A total abuse and clogging of the court system.
Good thing Judge Leonard Davis doesn't put up with that garbage. One of the best.
Alcatel-Lucent Wins Major Contract In China, But Is It Enough? [View article]
I agree and think ALU is a "zero". It is sinking under its awful debt. I wouldn't doubt that it is just about giving its equipment away - look for continued terrible margins.
Dynavax Shares Poised To Run Higher As Heplisav Approaches Important Catalysts [View article]
Everything on track. I bought more in the low $4.70's today.
Dynavax Shares Poised To Run Higher As Heplisav Approaches Important Catalysts [View article]
I think DVAX has based nicely here and is primed for the next leg up. I like Hepsaliv's chances for approval and it should the "no-brainer" standard-of-care once approved.