R. Scott Raynovich

Will the Deflationist vs. Inflationist Debate End Soon?

I thini Pre-Clinton stats were more accurate because they didn't include hedonics which are more subjective.

I guess it comes down to whether you think there is more inflaiton or less inflation than the government reports. I believe the government consistently under-reports inflation.


On Jan 21 09:24 AM JPDD wrote:

> [Because he is counting inflation by the Pre-Clinton era measurements
> before the government started manipulating CPI with "hedonics," which
> pretty much allows them to say inflation rate is anything they want.]
>
>
> I realize that. Perhaps I should have asked it like this: Why do
> you think that the pre-Clinton stats were any less manipulated or
> politicized? Do you think that the Reagan and Bush 41 administrations
> were above manipulating those statistics?
>
> As near as I can tell, shadowstats is perpetuating a different set
> of manipulations.

Will the Deflationist vs. Inflationist Debate End Soon?

I am not, in fact, whistling.


On Jan 20 08:45 AM CLH wrote:

> It appears you are whistling as you pass the grave yard. Trillions
> of dollars have disappeared as debt is eliminated. This will take
> years to repair. The govts. spending is only nickles and dimes.

Will the Deflationist vs. Inflationist Debate End Soon?

Yes, but...

* Deflationists assume that we "let the banks go" and all of the credit is destroyed.

but...

* WE don't appear to be doing that. We appear to be running the printing presses overtime in a useless effort to save banks

* What happens when the government ends up having the buy all the crummy/toxic/bad assets from the bad banks that fail

* They will then be forced to monetize these assets... somehow.

Given what's happening in banker-ville today, it may have to happen sooner rather than later.

I believe, ultimately what will happen is either an informal (stealth) or formal massive devaluation of the dollar. It especially makes sense if you read your history books on FDR and you realize that Obama and Bernanke are both students of FDR.


On Jan 20 09:54 AM Kip Largo wrote:

> I am of the belief that money created through credit must hit rock
> bottom before any recovery can happen. That means trillions of dollars
> has to disappear so that pretty much what is left is the Fed generated
> money (rather than the money created out of loans). When this has
> happened, we'll be ready for growth as we will have proper reserves
> for any credit expansion, but if we try to keep massive amounts of
> credit alive by printing out money, we will only push us farther
> into bad times.

Will the Deflationist vs. Inflationist Debate End Soon?

I agree velocity is the thing to watch.

I believe it will increase.


On Jan 20 09:59 AM patio wrote:

> "But the government is desperately trying to "reflate" the economy
> by guaranteeing banks, lowering rates, creating stimulus, and driving
> down interest rates. Inflationists say that these pure monetary actions
> by the government are likely to stoke inflation – possibly hyperinflation."

>
>
> Yet another article missing the point- who is lining up, and qualifies,
> for this new credit? No one, that's who. If the money doesn't get
> past the banks, no increase in velocity.

Will the Deflationist vs. Inflationist Debate End Soon?

Because he is counting inflation by the Pre-Clinton era measurements before the government started manipulating CPI with "hedonics," which pretty much allows them to say inflation rate is anything they want.

CPI has declined recently only because of the price of gasoline and oil, which receive too heavy a weighting in CPI anyway.






On Jan 20 08:29 AM JPDD wrote:

> Why do you consider shadowstats any more calibrated than the gov't
> stats?